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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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well, let me put it this way

it was really going toward the Euro and it just went the other way, which wasn't what I hoped or expected

Also have to take into consideration that it may have been one or two members that tugged it in the wrong direction. Perhaps a good number of the SREF members still are decent.

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I'm watching the 12Z WRF come in.. and at 72 Hr which verifies at 12Z Sat, what jumps out is the location of the blocking low farther west than the same time frame yesterday. It also has a deeper shortwave, which may support a better solution for the GFS to amplify the east coast trough and pull the storm closer to the ECMWF outputs. I said yesterday to ignore the GFS... but this is the one that would push the panic button if it starts to show the storm.

I wrote a blogthis morning about the problem with public expectations this far out. What do you think?

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/christmas-%27weekend%27-storm%3A-delay-in-timing

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I think today is the day the Euro folds...if it does at all. The NAM looks ok, but I'm worried it would phase too late. We need the GFS or GGEM or UK to come west and support the Euro. Euro on its own carried us through these past 3 days, but something has got to give with other models.

Todays 12z euro WILL be the closest to the final solution....hey look I can talk like a bunch of people on the main forum side!!

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I think today is the day the Euro folds...if it does at all. The NAM looks ok, but I'm worried it would phase too late. We need the GFS or GGEM or UK to come west and support the Euro. Euro on its own carried us through these past 3 days, but something has got to give with other models.

I agree 100%, Randy. Even though it is the Euro it's a bit troubling to still have a good deal of models way off the coast.

And the weenie in me will now ask -

What has the KMA been showing? Brazilian?

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Todays 12z euro WILL be the closest to the final solution....hey look I can talk like a bunch of people on the main forum side!!

Nice..

But with all honesty, with the energy on shore or now close to shore, this is crunch time for the models. 0z and 12z tomorrow will be the time to separate the men vs. the boys. This is the time frame in which the greatest chance exists for the euro and other mongers to loose it.

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Nice..

But with all honesty, with the energy on shore or now close to shore, this is crunch time for the models. 0z and 12z tomorrow will be the time to separate the men vs. the boys. This is the time frame in which the greatest chance exists for the euro and other mongers to loose it.

Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see.

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Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see.

I said yesterday that I think there will be a euro run that goes up 95 or just inland...I say todays 12 z is it making everyone scratch their heads even more. Of course it might not do that as well

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I said yesterday that I think there will be a euro run that goes up 95 or just inland...I say todays 12 z is it making everyone scratch their heads even more. Of course it might not do that as well

I don't know about that. With all the models being stubborn and not bowing to the Euro it's tough to jump on that bandwagon of thought. Of course, who knows with these models these days. They have been subpar IMO.

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Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see.

Actually, If the euro is going to go out, I believe it will go out in one run. But once it realizes that its phasing is wrong (if it in fact is) then I think it is a good enough model to find the right solution quickly. Remember that one odd 12z run for the 17-19 storm? I think that kind of thing will happen but in a "easterly" direction (if that is really what it's going to do)

Just ranting here, but I think that's just one (I actually support/believe the off hours through 96 hrs) of the important reasons to watch the off hour GFS. The off hours can better help define a trend, the euro on the other hand (which I think overall is a better model) has a tendency to jump around because of its 12 hr run breaks, its 24 hour frame cycle doesn't help either.

(BTW, Randy.. Great job on the server, we got 40 page threads and lots of users on and its seamless to me) :thumbsup:

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So what happens if todays 12z euro holds again but the ensembles are still SE of the op? At what range do you stop using the ensembles....aren't we close to that point?

Yes. Though the 12 package is not ingested with the vorticity "bowling ball maximum" just the height decreases leading up to such. I would mark this as the start of a series of runs that leads to a trend. So like 0z, 12z, 0z.. whatever trend that puts out will likely be our end solution, with exact track uncertainties of course.

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The GFS out to 42Hrs is showing what I saw in the WRF.... A deeper trough and stronger blocking. Also note the intense vort max in the central plains that was not there for the same time frame yesterday. This looks like the GFS (which I still don't trust) is coming back on board. Look for more amplified Jet and negative tilt to come closer to the coast with southern storm.

post-1859-0-58320100-1293033403.jpg

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Got 120 Hrs and it is better on the GFS, but still can handle the moisture. This is just a sign of transition now that the energy is in the grid from this morning. AGAIN- GFS does not show snow in Baltimore, but that is not the issue now. It is about the phasing and farther west solution.. in line with Euro. Back on the wagon everyone... and ride out the next few for snowcasting. It is still too early to make the call... but XMAS snow might be out as this is a Sunday -Monday storm.

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Please explain the dangerous track part!!!!!!

It is well known that the GFS has a tendency to have a SE bias, which means that the low placement would be to the NW. There is also the issue of the gulf stream setting up a baroclinic zone over the sea surface temperature gradient. This often causes the low to migrate to the west, if upper level forcing is effective, which by that map it is, even the HPC discusses it. Besides that, it is still 114 hours out, if this thing is even 75-100 miles west, man so people are going to get :arrowhead:

Negatives are it is still 114 hours out.

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Please explain the dangerous track part!!!!!!

Well, it is a huge shift to the west, from its prior runs, and the rest of the global models (obviously except the euro). Is this the beginning of a series of steps for the GFS, or is this the "reasonable compromise" between the EC's over amplified solution and the rest of the global models too south and east solutions?

Well, either the 12Z EC will stay the course, OR it will head a bit east towards the 12Z GFS and they'll continue to converge on successive runs.

My guess is the later, not the former.

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