Yeoman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You should talk to the forum owners about installing Tapatalk's free plug-in...that way we won't have to view raw HTML breaks. He's too busy complaining about something he has no control over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, let me put it this way it was really going toward the Euro and it just went the other way, which wasn't what I hoped or expected Also have to take into consideration that it may have been one or two members that tugged it in the wrong direction. Perhaps a good number of the SREF members still are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 And while we are defining trend we should also try to define smidge and hair and a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I call those burps...if the next set does the same thing then a trend is starting...JMO The difference between a burp and vomit can be as subtle as just a bit more bile. One is far less pleasant than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm watching the 12Z WRF come in.. and at 72 Hr which verifies at 12Z Sat, what jumps out is the location of the blocking low farther west than the same time frame yesterday. It also has a deeper shortwave, which may support a better solution for the GFS to amplify the east coast trough and pull the storm closer to the ECMWF outputs. I said yesterday to ignore the GFS... but this is the one that would push the panic button if it starts to show the storm. I wrote a blogthis morning about the problem with public expectations this far out. What do you think? http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/christmas-%27weekend%27-storm%3A-delay-in-timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think today is the day the Euro folds...if it does at all. The NAM looks ok, but I'm worried it would phase too late. We need the GFS or GGEM or UK to come west and support the Euro. Euro on its own carried us through these past 3 days, but something has got to give with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think today is the day the Euro folds...if it does at all. The NAM looks ok, but I'm worried it would phase too late. We need the GFS or GGEM or UK to come west and support the Euro. Euro on its own carried us through these past 3 days, but something has got to give with other models. Todays 12z euro WILL be the closest to the final solution....hey look I can talk like a bunch of people on the main forum side!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think today is the day the Euro folds...if it does at all. The NAM looks ok, but I'm worried it would phase too late. We need the GFS or GGEM or UK to come west and support the Euro. Euro on its own carried us through these past 3 days, but something has got to give with other models. I agree 100%, Randy. Even though it is the Euro it's a bit troubling to still have a good deal of models way off the coast. And the weenie in me will now ask - What has the KMA been showing? Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Todays 12z euro WILL be the closest to the final solution....hey look I can talk like a bunch of people on the main forum side!! Nice.. But with all honesty, with the energy on shore or now close to shore, this is crunch time for the models. 0z and 12z tomorrow will be the time to separate the men vs. the boys. This is the time frame in which the greatest chance exists for the euro and other mongers to loose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nice.. But with all honesty, with the energy on shore or now close to shore, this is crunch time for the models. 0z and 12z tomorrow will be the time to separate the men vs. the boys. This is the time frame in which the greatest chance exists for the euro and other mongers to loose it. Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see. I said yesterday that I think there will be a euro run that goes up 95 or just inland...I say todays 12 z is it making everyone scratch their heads even more. Of course it might not do that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I said yesterday that I think there will be a euro run that goes up 95 or just inland...I say todays 12 z is it making everyone scratch their heads even more. Of course it might not do that as well I don't know about that. With all the models being stubborn and not bowing to the Euro it's tough to jump on that bandwagon of thought. Of course, who knows with these models these days. They have been subpar IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Think there's a lot to see with the 12z today. My guess is either we'll see some decent trends toward the Euro or we'll see the Euro start to get a little iffy on the storm idea. I don't think the Euro will jump ship in one run but could go either way let us see. Actually, If the euro is going to go out, I believe it will go out in one run. But once it realizes that its phasing is wrong (if it in fact is) then I think it is a good enough model to find the right solution quickly. Remember that one odd 12z run for the 17-19 storm? I think that kind of thing will happen but in a "easterly" direction (if that is really what it's going to do) Just ranting here, but I think that's just one (I actually support/believe the off hours through 96 hrs) of the important reasons to watch the off hour GFS. The off hours can better help define a trend, the euro on the other hand (which I think overall is a better model) has a tendency to jump around because of its 12 hr run breaks, its 24 hour frame cycle doesn't help either. (BTW, Randy.. Great job on the server, we got 40 page threads and lots of users on and its seamless to me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So what happens if todays 12z euro holds again but the ensembles are still SE of the op? At what range do you stop using the ensembles....aren't we close to that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0Z will provide a verdict. I believe the NAM took a step towards the EURO. Lets see what the GFS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So what happens if todays 12z euro holds again but the ensembles are still SE of the op? At what range do you stop using the ensembles....aren't we close to that point? Yes. Though the 12 package is not ingested with the vorticity "bowling ball maximum" just the height decreases leading up to such. I would mark this as the start of a series of runs that leads to a trend. So like 0z, 12z, 0z.. whatever trend that puts out will likely be our end solution, with exact track uncertainties of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The GFS out to 42Hrs is showing what I saw in the WRF.... A deeper trough and stronger blocking. Also note the intense vort max in the central plains that was not there for the same time frame yesterday. This looks like the GFS (which I still don't trust) is coming back on board. Look for more amplified Jet and negative tilt to come closer to the coast with southern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh hello gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow major difference at the 500mb level between 00Z and 12Z 00Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Out to 96... and it looks like its phased (or at least started). It was wayyy amplified. I mean look at the 552 dm line, it goes from northwest territories to New Orleans. I have never seen anything like that before. Edit.. 996 mb off of Hatteras going NE... here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh here we go.. dang. For 114 hours out.. that is very dangerous track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Alpha5 dude is annoying as **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow 108hr GFS has a 986 due east of VA Beach moving NNE... About 200 miles west of the 00z's position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh here we go.. dang. For 114 hours out.. that is very dangerous track. Please explain the dangerous track part!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Got 120 Hrs and it is better on the GFS, but still can handle the moisture. This is just a sign of transition now that the energy is in the grid from this morning. AGAIN- GFS does not show snow in Baltimore, but that is not the issue now. It is about the phasing and farther west solution.. in line with Euro. Back on the wagon everyone... and ride out the next few for snowcasting. It is still too early to make the call... but XMAS snow might be out as this is a Sunday -Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If that moves just a LITTLE towards the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Please explain the dangerous track part!!!!!! It is well known that the GFS has a tendency to have a SE bias, which means that the low placement would be to the NW. There is also the issue of the gulf stream setting up a baroclinic zone over the sea surface temperature gradient. This often causes the low to migrate to the west, if upper level forcing is effective, which by that map it is, even the HPC discusses it. Besides that, it is still 114 hours out, if this thing is even 75-100 miles west, man so people are going to get Negatives are it is still 114 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Please explain the dangerous track part!!!!!! Well, it is a huge shift to the west, from its prior runs, and the rest of the global models (obviously except the euro). Is this the beginning of a series of steps for the GFS, or is this the "reasonable compromise" between the EC's over amplified solution and the rest of the global models too south and east solutions? Well, either the 12Z EC will stay the course, OR it will head a bit east towards the 12Z GFS and they'll continue to converge on successive runs. My guess is the later, not the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12Z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 But the ensembles supported the 6z op...how could this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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