Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ...or, I'm just flat out wrong. I am, however, definitely passionate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I simply don't "get it" how can any reasonable human (or cat or dog if they can reason too) POSSIBLY still give the operation Euro ANY consideration??? Seriously. It's NOT consistent. Which models are? Well, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GEGM and ECE seem fairly consistent in NO eastern seaboard mega storm. Plus they sure do seem consistent with each other. We have DOZENS of models and ensemble members that say the EC is flat out WRONG! But...the Euro is "the best model". Yeah...and, now it has YET ANOTHER solution! What happened to the destruction of NYC? Oh, yeah, I see the Euro is forecasting YET ANOTHER cutoff just off the VA coast? AGAIN??? C'mon didn't it try that on the 5th and 19th? The euro has not had vastly different solutions, it has shown a major amplification 5 of the last 6 runs. The last 3 runs have just trended deeper with the h5 trough. The last run being most extreme and cutting off in the mid atlantic. The track of the low up until the VA capes is identical to the previous run but then it cuts off earlier. If your point is that the euro is all alone and probably wrong because of that, valid point. However, the euro is consistent with itself and is now in its "locked in" mode. 5 of 6 runs with a similar scenario is locked in. Last weeek the euro had a rogue run or two with a storm but never this kind of consistency. That does not mean it is right but that is part of the reason people are not as quick to throw it out as you seem to suggest. I am very skeptical myself but its usually deadly when it locks into a solution like this. If it is wrong here it will take a major hit in terms of being trusted from many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I simply don't "get it" how can any reasonable human (or cat or dog if they can reason too) POSSIBLY still give the operation Euro ANY consideration??? Seriously. It's NOT consistent. Which models are? Well, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GEGM and ECE seem fairly consistent in NO eastern seaboard mega storm. Plus they sure do seem consistent with each other. We have DOZENS of models and ensemble members that say the EC is flat out WRONG! But...the Euro is "the best model". Yeah...and, now it has YET ANOTHER solution! What happened to the destruction of NYC? Oh, yeah, I see the Euro is forecasting YET ANOTHER cutoff just off the VA coast? AGAIN??? C'mon didn't it try that on the 5th and 19th? Going to be some real sadness if it doesn't pan out as depicted. I was hopeful that even the GFS threw me a couple inches either way (Live in SW VA) But now that doesn't appear likely. You are one of the few standing against the EC-- the rest, including the HPC have caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just read HPCs discussion...they credit the EC's higher resolution and 4DVAR. Ok, how do we explain away the UKMET then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just read HPCs discussion...they credit the EC's higher resolution and 4DVAR. Ok, how do we explain away the UKMET then? if the Euro is on crack, we should see it today or tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The euro has not had vastly different solutions, it has shown a major amplification 5 of the last 6 runs. The last 3 runs have just trended deeper with the h5 trough. The last run being most extreme and cutting off in the mid atlantic. The track of the low up until the VA capes is identical to the previous run but then it cuts off earlier. If your point is that the euro is all alone and probably wrong because of that, valid point. However, the euro is consistent with itself and is now in its "locked in" mode. 5 of 6 runs with a similar scenario is locked in. Last weeek the euro had a rogue run or two with a storm but never this kind of consistency. That does not mean it is right but that is part of the reason people are not as quick to throw it out as you seem to suggest. I am very skeptical myself but its usually deadly when it locks into a solution like this. If it is wrong here it will take a major hit in terms of being trusted from many. Sorry, I'm writing quickly and on an iPhone. The euro has been vastly different from the other models AND it continues, three weekends now, to attempt something that's (essentially) failed before. The Euro was "consistent with itself" from 192hr, 168hr, 144hr, 132hr, and 120hr ahead of 12/5. It was also wrong. Similar, but less consecutive runs, with 12/19. Not to mention the bizarre one run attempt to cutoff a system just off DE at only 72hr lead time. That was to produce 8" in six hours last Sunday morning. Sure...it is consistent WRT deeper H5, earlier cutoff, etc. Perhaps "vastly" was unfairly jaded by sensible weather impact. But...oddly...it sure does seem to be "correcting" it's details towards the ENTIRE SUITE of other global models. Right up until when...? Somewhere in the 114 - 126 hour range when it finally diverges. That's been consistent as well. In fact that was the consistency with it's last two fantasies. Well, except for that little 72hr mishap, but THAT was at least consistent too....in that it happened immediately off the coast between 37N and 39N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this storm goes out to sea, like it probably will, will it be considered a bust even though there was no model consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 if the Euro is on crack, we should see it today or tonight They also say that 4 GFS ensemble members are close to Euro, a glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this storm goes out to sea, like it probably will, will it be considered a bust even though there was no model consensus? No, somehow we'll all convince ourselves that this one didn't count. Man, you simply can't imagine how desperately I want the 0Z Euro to verify exactly as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Sorry, I'm writing quickly and on an iPhone. The euro has been vastly different from the other models AND it continues, three weekends now, to attempt something that's (essentially) failed before. <br /> <br /> The Euro was "consistent with itself" from 192hr, 168hr, 144hr, 132hr, and 120hr ahead of 12/5. It was also wrong. Similar, but less consecutive runs, with 12/19. Not to mention the bizarre one run attempt to cutoff a system just off DE at only 72hr lead time. That was to produce 8" in six hours last Sunday morning. <br /> <br /> Sure...it is consistent WRT deeper H5, earlier cutoff, etc. Perhaps "vastly" was unfairly jaded by sensible weather impact. But...oddly...it sure does seem to be "correcting" it's details towards the ENTIRE SUITE of other global models.<br /> Right up until when...? Somewhere in the 114 - 126 hour range when it finally diverges. That's been consistent as well. In fact that was the consistency with it's last two fantasies. Well, except for that little 72hr mishap, but THAT was at least consistent too....in that it happened immediately off the coast between 37N and 39N.<br /> <br /><br /><br />But now the euro is 84 hours from when the storm actually gets going. If it's going to miss us...it would mean the euro would now have to be wrong in the 72-84 hour range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 They also say that 4 GFS ensemble members are close to Euro, a glimmer of hope They lied. It's two. One is almost a dead ringer for the 0Z EC. The other is, well, a distant second, but close enough to count as kind'a in the EC's camp. Kind'a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 actually, and I may be completely wrong here, I think the chances of this missing NE may be increasing in light of the movement of the Low on the 0Z run thanks to the block in the end, I think MA on south will be the favored location I do believe runs from today and tonight will be important in setting trends toward the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 They lied. It's two. One is almost a dead ringer for the 0Z EC. The other is, well, a distant second, but close enough to count as kind'a in the EC's camp. Kind'a well if that's correct, that's pretty pathetic I don't know why they would do it since those in the industry can easily confirm their claims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ender, I understand your skepticism...I wonder though about the fact that the other models have trended toward the Euro in terms of the evolution aloft in the days prior to the storm hitting the EC. While the final solution still remains in doubt, the fact that SO FAR the Euro appears to be leading the way with how the pieces of the puzzle are coming together makes me hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm ready for a full day of what can or is wrong analysis...the last few euro runs have been fun though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this storm goes out to sea, like it probably will, will it be considered a bust even though there was no model consensus? No I don't think so...It seems to me the people who don't think it is correct are trying a little too hard to make it so vs. us weenies who really like the looks of a model run 4-5 days out. Big difference in my eyes...OTS people almost appear defensive...but that is just my opinion. Good luck to all and Merry Hollidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> But now the euro is 84 hours from when the storm actually gets going. If it's going to miss us...it would mean the euro would now have to be wrong in the 72-84 hour range Why do your quotes always look like such massacres? I don't have a problem with the Euro out to 84hr. There's two ways to look at this. HPC has reasoned that this huge anomaly of a block can lead to the EC's solution. It sort'a worked last Dec and Feb. Sort'a. Then there's the contray opinion that the Euro has done "something like this" with three storms now. One was a SE diving s/w like clipper that would have given DC it's greatest snowfall EVER in a Miller-B and it stuck with that "solution" for something like six runs. Thus, the other way to look at it is the Euro is having trouble with this pattern along the eastern seaboard. Obviously the optimistic view would be that the Euro has been very, very sensitive to a real potential in this pattern and THIS is the occasion in which it WILL verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well if that's correct, that's pretty pathetic I don't know why they would do it since those in the industry can easily confirm their claims Lol. I was being facetious. I have no idea who the "they" are that you're referring to. Nor do I know which ensemble run. I just glanced at the GEFS members from 6Z and saw that only two were serious outliers. Your "they" may have been referring to 0Z, which I haven't, and won't look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Lol. I was being facetious. I have no idea who the "they" are that you're referring to. Nor do I know which ensemble run. I just glanced at the GEFS members from 6Z and saw that only two were serious outliers. Your "they" may have been referring to 0Z, which I haven't, and won't look at. I misunderstood your reference to his reference. never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why do your quotes always look like such massacres? I don't have a problem with the Euro out to 84hr. There's two ways to look at this. HPC has reasoned that this huge anomaly of a block can lead to the EC's solution. It sort'a worked last Dec and Feb. Sort'a. Then there's the contray opinion that the Euro has done "something like this" with three storms now. One was a SE diving s/w like clipper that would have given DC it's greatest snowfall EVER in a Miller-B and it stuck with that "solution" for something like six runs. Thus, the other way to look at it is the Euro is having trouble with this pattern along the eastern seaboard. Obviously the optimistic view would be that the Euro has been very, very sensitive to a real potential in this pattern and THIS is the occasion in which it WILL verify. i use taptalk on my ipod touch. Am not sure why its showing all the weird characters. If you remember last week, the EURO only showed a Major hit for 1 or 2 runs at the most. It was completely off the table when the GFS was showing a major hit but I didnt feel like the Euro teased us that much last week. It seems much more stubborn this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, Ender will be happy to see the 9ZSREF's, at least with respect to his opinion on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, Ender will be happy to see the 9ZSREF's, at least with respect to his opinion on this storm Mitch is it time to use the SREF's yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Mitch is it time to use the SREF's yet? well, not really, except it completely trended away from where is had been going the previous 2 runs, which is the bigger concernto me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, Ender will be happy to see the 9ZSREF's, at least with respect to his opinion on this storm In all sincerity, the only thing that will make me happy is to be wrong...and for the Euro to be right this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS and Euro are very very similar through 72 hrs. 6Z GFS almost gets it done diving the southern Vort to the GOM...but it goes wonky right after that... 3 6Z members seem Euroesque... and another handful a stronger but quicker low further east. The LAX balloon should go right into the vort this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i use taptalk on my ipod touch. Am not sure why its showing all the weird characters. If you remember last week, the EURO only showed a Major hit for 1 or 2 runs at the most. It was completely off the table when the GFS was showing a major hit but I didnt feel like the Euro teased us that much last week. It seems much more stubborn this week You should talk to the forum owners about installing Tapatalk's free plug-in...that way we won't have to view raw HTML breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, not really, except it completely trended away from where is had been going the previous 2 runs, which is the bigger concernto me Somebody one day needs to do a thread on what constitutes a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Somebody one day needs to do a thread on what constitutes a trend well, let me put it this way it was really going toward the Euro and it just went the other way, which wasn't what I hoped or expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 In all sincerity, the only thing that will make me happy is to be wrong...and for the Euro to be right this Sunday. I know, that's why I said "opinion" on storm vs. hopes or wishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well, let me put it this way it was really going toward the Euro and it just went the other way, which wasn't what I hoped or expected I call those burps...if the next set does the same thing then a trend is starting...JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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