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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Here's the 120hr OP and MEAN:

And 144hr...

Thanks. Looks pretty good at 120, but obviously some big differences on 144. Still, the "story" is about the same in terms of a big East Coast snowstorm. Ensembles are faster and a bit farther east, but I wouldn't call the differences wild.

GFS at 12z looked very uniform from the Op to the ensembles, but there's a lot more spread on the 18z run. One of the ensemble members looks fairly similar to the Euro ensemble mean.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

euro ens mean did seem to move a hair east compared to 00z.. not huge enough to think it means a ton i guess and some of it could be slight timing issues but just tracking rh etc it looks a smidge east. depending on solutions tonight might be worth looking for.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The Metrodome roof collapsed.

That is not entirely accurate, the storm that hit Minneapolis was a northern stream system that never phased with the southern branch. Instead if amplified on its own and produced that blizzard. later on the streams phased and the storm was pulled due east. The models mishandled it totally but even the euro did a bad job on that storm and was not correct in the morphology of that system. I wish people would stop hanging their hat on that storm when trying to justify the euro...it was not very good with that system.

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Dr No

Dr No

Posted
Posted

That is not entirely accurate, the storm that hit Minneapolis was a northern stream system that never phased with the southern branch. Instead if amplified on its own and produced that blizzard. later on the streams phased and the storm was pulled due east. The models mishandled it totally but even the euro did a bad job on that storm and was not correct in the morphology of that system. I wish people would stop hanging their hat on that storm when trying to justify the euro...it was not very good with that system.

:arrowhead:

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

And we're not even sure about that yet :arrowhead:

yea I got into this fight with Analog96 last week regarding the euro versus all other guidance. The euro is superior yes, but is it superior to ALL other guidance...ehh

that might be a wash, but this is not the case, here we are asking is the 12z euro, superior then all other 0z guidance with 12hrs of lead time advantage. That is a very grim proposition. This is the same thing I stated last week and sure enough the 0z Euro caved and the storm was gone. This feels so similar it is eerie. We wanted to see baby steps from the GFS/NAM and those runs were fine...but then honestly the UKMET and GGEM were huge steps in the wrong direction. Truth is a consensus between the camps is probably correct but a consensus is no good for DC, we needed the euro solution to be right, not a compromise between the GFS/Euro. This is what happened last time and probably will again. If the Euro holds tonight and doesnt begin to trend east I will hold out hope in the morning, but I would be really surprised if the euro comes in similar to 12z. I hope I am wrong.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

compare the loop of 700mb maps of last 2 SREF runs

top link is from 21Z and bottom is from 3z

play particular attention to how the 3Z run starts to turn the corner, so to speak, in the southeast on its way north

admittedly, its not quite there, but its real close and the trend towards the Euro is unmistakable

http://www.nco.ncep....0r_s_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep....0r_s_loop.shtml

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

I simply don't "get it" how can any reasonable human (or cat or dog if they can reason too) POSSIBLY still give the operation Euro ANY consideration???

Seriously. It's NOT consistent. Which models are? Well, the GFS, GEFS, UKMET, GEGM and ECE seem fairly consistent in NO eastern seaboard mega storm. Plus they sure do seem consistent with each other. We have DOZENS of models and ensemble members that say the EC is flat out WRONG!

But...the Euro is "the best model". Yeah...and, now it has YET ANOTHER solution! What happened to the destruction of NYC? Oh, yeah, I see the Euro is forecasting YET ANOTHER cutoff just off the VA coast? AGAIN??? C'mon didn't it try that on the 5th and 19th?

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