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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Has there ever been to major weather models like this this far apart in its solutions 5 days out? Crazy

let's not forget that the 8 Day super ensembles had 1/6/96 as an analog date several days ago

last year had some big storm dates on the super ensembles as well

today, HPC mentions their interpretation of Euro ensembles from last night had NESIS 4-5 type storm on it

folks, these are the kinds of things that show up first before you get the medium range computers converging on the final solution

no one can guarantee anything at this point, but this system certainly was being sniffed out by the longer range computers for days now which are just the kinds of signs we saw last year before the big events

sit back and enjoy the ride and dismiss the GFS until it has substantial other model support

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Dr No

Dr No

Posted
Posted

18z GFS still cannot turn the corner and still faster than the Euro.

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06108.gif

Probably said 100 times by now but the differences on the GFS is just mind boggling compared to the Euro, GGEM, and Euro ensembles. There seems to be no logical reason of why the GFS is still soooo OTS and progressive based on the positioning of the ridge out west and the pig low.

The GFS is well OTS before even the Euro solution would start to give us snow.

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pojrzsho

pojrzsho

Posted
Posted

let's not forget that the 8 Day super ensembles had 1/6/96 as an analog date several days ago

last year had some big storm dates on the super ensembles as well

today, HPC mentions their interpretation of Euro ensembles from last night had NESIS 4-5 type storm on it

folks, these are the kinds of things that show up first before you get the medium range computers converging on the final solution

no one can guarantee anything at this point, but this system certainly was being sniffed out by the longer range computers for days now which are just the kinds of signs we saw last year before the big events

sit back and enjoy the ride and dismiss the GFS until it has substantial other model support

Bravo...and thank you. Have been at work for 12 hours, and knew when I saw 18 pages on the 12z thread something was good!!...just a bit discouraging to see one very reliable model w a blizzard, and one model that is a popular tool, with some flurries. But I agree with you, and will sit back and enjoy. Thanks again

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Well, I suppose we all knew it was going to be a long and tense week. But man, solutions all over the place! It's disheartening that both the 12Z and 18Z GFS were veritable train wrecks. Not just for the possible storm this weekend, but even beyond that. I was hoping to see the 18Z at least pull more west with this storm, toward what the ECMWF had. Alas, no. I sure hope the Euro has not been out to lunch the last couple of days...HPC sure seems to be more in its camp as do several forecast offices from what I have seen.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I'm okay with the GFS not being on board right now but I'd like it to start heading in that direction. Who knows? Maybe it's onto something...

if the Euro is correct in the evolution, and I believe it is because it has been leading the way in slowing everything down (never mind placement of features per se), then we are still 4+ days away from the system starting to effect our area and really, almost 5 days as the Euro brings the snow in just before 1PM on Sunday

it is typical for the GFS to be ots when at this point WHERE STORMS REALLY HIT US!

its when we're in the 5 day bulls eye when we always loose

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Seeing that the big spread between the GFS and Euro is mostly due to the speed of the energy coming out of the SW, I guess I should concentrate more on that when comparing models instead of the final outcome right?

I'm not nearly as good as many on here when reading models so I generally try to focus on something that is easy to understand and follow but also has a large impact on the overall evolution of a complicated system.

In laymens terms: Fast = Bad and Slow = Good right?

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

I'd be excited now if it wasn't for the Euro being wrong and the GFS correct for the Dec 19 (2010) non event.

This is going to be a long week.

Don't forget when the EC tried to take that pseudo clipper in from the Oregon coast to ND then SE through RIC, and, then, BOOM! DC was supposed to get 8" as the system essentially bombed out, briefly cutoff and drifted away....and it wasn't as if the Euro showed that for a run or two...it was pretty consistent showing the same thing for four or so runs.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Seeing that the big spread between the GFS and Euro is mostly due to the speed of the energy coming out of the SW, I guess I should concentrate more on that when comparing models instead of the final outcome right?

I'm not nearly as good as many on here when reading models so I generally try to focus on something that is easy to understand and follow but also has a large impact on the overall evolution of a complicated system.

In laymens terms: Fast = Bad and Slow = Good right?

I don't know if this post is out to lunch, but I guess I'll find out. Looking just at the 500 maps for 66 hours for 18z GFS and 72 hours for EC 12z, it looks like the biggest issue is the speed with which the energy off the coast of Cal. comes east. At 48 h (EC) and 42 (18 GFS) it's in almost the exact same spot in AZ. It's the next 24 hours where the big change comes. The EC has it at or about Amarillo, where the GFS has it at or about OK City. From there the changes become huge. Wouldn't the degree of buckle in the flow ahead of this thing argue for it making it east slower?

You and I are on the same page here. Maybe someone here can tell me if this makes sense.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

I know euro is "king" but is anyone else bothered that the euro has a big storm because it it slower with the progression out of the southwest, and the euro is knows for a bias of being too slow with energy out of the SW?

I'm of the opinion that the GFS is way too fast and weak with the wave and the Euro is too slow and strong with the wave. So the answer lies somewhere in the middle, probably a moderate event for midatlantic and northeast. I think the NAM will start to show that moderate event tomorrow. The models have certainly converged on a significant overrunning event for central plains states though over the coming days and QPFs look very good for that.

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

Looks like it, per Don's post in the 12z model thread. As I commented there, it's amazing how uniform the GFS Op and ensembles are and all completely different from the Euro and its ensembles. I'd really love to see all the Euro's ensembles to really see what the parameter space is on them, but in general they obviously support the idea of a big bombing/near-bomb Hatteras-to-Benchmark snowstorm.

Here's the 120hr OP and MEAN:

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif

And 144hr...

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I'm of the opinion that the GFS is way too fast and weak with the wave and the Euro is too slow and strong with the wave. So the answer lies somewhere in the middle, probably a moderate event for midatlantic and northeast. I think the NAM will start to show that moderate event tomorrow. The models have certainly converged on a significant overrunning event for central plains states though over the coming days and QPFs look very good for that.

I was actually thinking about this earlier with the 18Z GFS QPF maps. Pretty big swath of .25 - .50 precip across the midwest but cuts off over WVA and leaves us with flurries. It isn't like this is a clipper and gets dried up over the mtns. I would have expected to see at least an overrunning event on the model even if the low does slide off the coast in SC.

Does this happen because once the low approaches the coast the energy transfers and the overrunning is cut off? Even with the bummer of the 18Z GFS run I would still think we see 2-4" overruning in front of the low.

The weenie in me is pretty optimistic about getting a coastal for the majority of the EC. Seems like this should be a more likely outcome given all the ingredients in place. MECS or HECS? Probably not but SECS is looking good for the weekend. lol

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

You want Wes (usedtobe) to say "orgasmic." Trust me on this one.

laugh.gif I actually had to work today. So I did not get to look at the models until now. Huge difference between the GFS and Euro. But what else is new? I would expect the Euro to back off a little bit as we go forward. It simply cannot model a stronger storm than 12z. The storm depicted is a monstrosity.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

I was actually thinking about this earlier with the 18Z GFS QPF maps. Pretty big swath of .25 - .50 precip across the midwest but cuts off over WVA and leaves us with flurries. It isn't like this is a clipper and gets dried up over the mtns. I would have expected to see at least an overrunning event on the model even if the low does slide off the coast in SC.

Does this happen because once the low approaches the coast the energy transfers and the overrunning is cut off? Even with the bummer of the 18Z GFS run I would still think we see 2-4" overruning in front of the low.

The weenie in me is pretty optimistic about getting a coastal for the majority of the EC. Seems like this should be a more likely outcome given all the ingredients in place. MECS or HECS? Probably not but SECS is looking good for the weekend. lol

Well what that GFS is basically saying is that monster low East of new england sticks around and basically shears apart this vigorous short wave that is in california right now. I'm not convinced that #1 the upper mid-atlantic low sticks around that long to significantly influence our shortwave, or #2 that what appears to be a superenergized shortwave in california based on record rainfall and snowfall out west will be that easily weakened. But who knows we have two completely different solutions from the GFS and EURO, and it's goign to be interesting to see which one blinks first.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been trending towards the Euro for 24 hours now in 2 aspects, speed of the system, and the more southern track of the low. The critical 3rd factor, earlier phasing is the one area it is not trending with us. If this had stayed a more west to east system we could have had a decent SECS without any phasing. Now we have the potential for a HECS but a huge bust potential and nothing. Tonight at 0z I would like to see some model guidance other then the euro move towards an earlier phase and closer to the coast track. I do not count the UKMET as its end result might match the euro but its way too far east initially to matter for us. Also the GGEM slides the low just a touch too far east before pulling it back in, allowing our area to miss out. The Euro is the only model showing the phasing early enough to get our area into a significant snow. Hope something else blinks tonight.

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SnowJoe

SnowJoe

Posted
Posted

You want Wes (usedtobe) to say "orgasmic." Trust me on this one.

The weenie in me would like to see him fire up the bus. Too early for that.

Not sure this is bus worthy. The climo doesn't support it.

Time will tell...and something is better than nothing.

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Siesta Key

Siesta Key

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been trending towards the Euro for 24 hours now in 2 aspects, speed of the system, and the more southern track of the low. The critical 3rd factor, earlier phasing is the one area it is not trending with us. If this had stayed a more west to east system we could have had a decent SECS without any phasing. Now we have the potential for a HECS but a huge bust potential and nothing. Tonight at 0z I would like to see some model guidance other then the euro move towards an earlier phase and closer to the coast track. I do not count the UKMET as its end result might match the euro but its way too far east initially to matter for us. Also the GGEM slides the low just a touch too far east before pulling it back in, allowing our area to miss out. The Euro is the only model showing the phasing early enough to get our area into a significant snow. Hope something else blinks tonight.

I have a feeling we are going to see the GFS cave to the EURO at 0Z.

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

I have a feeling we are going to see the GFS cave to the EURO at 0Z.

I have a feeling that the Euro is going to come to its senses by 12Z tomorrow, and that means it'll start to agree with it's ensemble mean.

Seems like everyone likes the EURO but not GFS. When does the next GFS come out and at what point can a realistic forecast be made. If the models stay different what do you go with or will they eventually agree?

Nope, not everyone.

The next GFS starts at 10:30pm...you'll have all your GFS answers by 11:15pm.

Eventually they'll all agree.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Seems like everyone likes the EURO but not GFS. When does the next GFS come out and at what point can a realistic forecast be made. If the models stay different what do you go with or will they eventually agree?

Everyone likes the Euro because it shows a BECS.:snowman: If it was the other way around, everyone would like the GFS.

The models will generally come to a narrow consensus in the 48-72 hour timeframe. Even then the verification can be off a fair bit. Sometimes they all look relatively the same 5 days in advance but that is certainly not the case with this system. The picture will be more clear once the shortwave in the Pac is over land.

Most on here don't buy into the GFS because it doesn't seem like a plausible solution considering the features in place. On the same note, it is hard to buy totally into the Euro because it shows an extremely rare event for the EC and goes against climo during a Nina. Most of the Mets on here seem to feel that the final outcome will be right in between the two. That would be fine for most on the EC.

The weenie suicide hotline is going to light up if the GFS holds its solution tonight and the Euro makes a move in that same direction.

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