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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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It seems the slower the storm the better and that is why the Euro really blasts us. GFS is too fast hence why its OTS and the GGEM/Ukie seem to be somewhere in the middle. I am not sold on a major snowstorm for DC until we get a supporting model on board.

I will say that out of all models, I trust the Euro; but not sure if I trust it on its own. The digging and slow speed it is displaying really helps the early phase and track.

That's how I see it and I'm with you, the euro is a great model but it certainly had some blips with the last storm. The fact that the majority of the nes members from 12Z were out to sea is reason to temper trust. It's all about timing and strength fo the two features. To get the euro, the timing needs to be almost perfect. How likely is that on day 5?

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And then its "Merry Christmas, Fish"?

The Euro is perfect. A little too perfect.

i hope the euro is right even if it means i get rain or something. i'll be sad to miss a hecs but im sure it will be well documented. i just dont have much faith in any solution verbatim right now.

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Does anyone have any of the pre-storm models for the two big boys from last winter? I don't remember either one producing a map as weather-porny as this latest Euro run.

The feb 5th storm showed up really early. We started talking about a major snow jan 31 for feb 5th. Here's the 128 hr ensemble members from the gfs. all were hits and they stayed on board through the event.

post-70-0-23070700-1292962166.png

This storm really doesn't have the model consensus that the feb 5th storm had.

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i hope the euro is right even if it means i get rain or something. i'll be sad to miss a hecs but im sure it will be well documented. i just dont have much faith in any solution verbatim right now.

Actually, neither do I. I'm actively resisting the urge to believe anything from OTS to HECS. If I was wishcasting, I would want 4 inches Christmas morning with no wind. But, I'm not sure that's any more (or less) likely than the extremes right now.

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Only if they do something foolish, like leave the house. Seriously, winter storms kill people because they aren't content to stay put.

That's the problem with big snows in major population centers. The odds of ignorance happening is very high. Some people just don't understand risk involved with travelling during a big storm. I keep my blankets, water, hand warmers, etc in all my cars during the winter.

I once got stuck in western Wyoming for a night. Blinding snow and 5 degrees with impassible roads. Luckily I had all my ski clothes with me or I would have been in serious trouble. Not to mention I was in an avalanche prone zone. I'll never forget that night!

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This storm really doesn't have the model consensus that the feb 5th storm had.

True, Wes. But the 00Z Euro ensemble mean was pretty close to the Op's position and strength. I believe that was true for yesterday's 12z as well. I'm very interested to see today's 12z ensembles in the next few minutes.

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I want to pose a question to you, as I figured it would be easier to get it answered in this thread, most likely by you or Ian. My question is....how does this "slowing down", especially from the Euro reading, affect the track of the storm? Does this give the Atlantic monster time to get out of the way? Also, if this thing does bomb to the levels being depicted, how does that affect its track?

the slowing down affects the track because it does 2 things.

1. allows more time for the major atl storm to move out and relax the confluence behind it

2. it times the STJ up better with the amplification in the northern branch. The northern branch has to wait for the major amplification over the atl to relax and move out for it to really dive in. The faster the STJ energy is the more likely it will just die out as it runs into that confluence and then we are left waiting for the northern stream to dive in and spark amplification on its own. The euro solution slows down the STJ so much so that it can phase really early with the AJ and boom...

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It sounds like the Euro ensembles support the operational for the most part. Mean is a hair SE, which is to be expected.

Looks like it, per Don's post in the 12z model thread. As I commented there, it's amazing how uniform the GFS Op and ensembles are and all completely different from the Euro and its ensembles. I'd really love to see all the Euro's ensembles to really see what the parameter space is on them, but in general they obviously support the idea of a big bombing/near-bomb Hatteras-to-Benchmark snowstorm.

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Channel 7 seems to be leaning to a significant snow event on Christmas day.

Hmm. Which model is Bob Ryan/Doug Hill looking at? I thought the Euro was predicting a significant Sunday event, and the GFS was predicting a Saturday non-event. Is anyone predicting a fast track (like the GFS) but also predicting significant snow totals (like the Euro)?

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Hmm. Which model is Bob Ryan/Doug Hill looking at? I thought the Euro was predicting a significant Sunday event, and the GFS was predicting a Saturday non-event. Is anyone predicting a fast track (like the GFS) but also predicting significant snow totals (like the Euro)?

Much as I respect their many years of service to DC-area prognosticating, they're behind the curve on this one.

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Does anyone have any of the pre-storm models for the two big boys from last winter? I don't remember either one producing a map as weather-porny as this latest Euro run.

(not saying I believe it, it's just an incredible looking picture)

The DGEX from 5 or 6 days out on the big one had something like a 40" contour. It was absurd (at the time).

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Yes. Radio shows have a somewhat checkered past when it comes to storm outcomes following the hosting of a show... Viewed as a curse by many, going back to euswx days.

Thank you.

My advice is to assume every post in this thread is a joke first, unless you have sufficient evidence to determine otherwise.

Thank you.

For us laymen who mostly lurk, inside jokes can send blood pressure through the roof....

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