weathercoins Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ah, I missed the days of me fairly obsessively checking my iPhone every 5 minutes or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does anyone have any of the pre-storm models for the two big boys from last winter? I don't remember either one producing a map as weather-porny as this latest Euro run. (not saying I believe it, it's just an incredible looking picture) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It seems the slower the storm the better and that is why the Euro really blasts us. GFS is too fast hence why its OTS and the GGEM/Ukie seem to be somewhere in the middle. I am not sold on a major snowstorm for DC until we get a supporting model on board. I will say that out of all models, I trust the Euro; but not sure if I trust it on its own. The digging and slow speed it is displaying really helps the early phase and track. That's how I see it and I'm with you, the euro is a great model but it certainly had some blips with the last storm. The fact that the majority of the nes members from 12Z were out to sea is reason to temper trust. It's all about timing and strength fo the two features. To get the euro, the timing needs to be almost perfect. How likely is that on day 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 unless the gfs is right. And then its "Merry Christmas, Fish"? The Euro is perfect. A little too perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And then its "Merry Christmas, Fish"? The Euro is perfect. A little too perfect. Correction..Merry Fishmas!!! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And then its "Merry Christmas, Fish"? The Euro is perfect. A little too perfect. i hope the euro is right even if it means i get rain or something. i'll be sad to miss a hecs but im sure it will be well documented. i just dont have much faith in any solution verbatim right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think it would be foolish to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does anyone have any of the pre-storm models for the two big boys from last winter? I don't remember either one producing a map as weather-porny as this latest Euro run. The feb 5th storm showed up really early. We started talking about a major snow jan 31 for feb 5th. Here's the 128 hr ensemble members from the gfs. all were hits and they stayed on board through the event. This storm really doesn't have the model consensus that the feb 5th storm had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i hope the euro is right even if it means i get rain or something. i'll be sad to miss a hecs but im sure it will be well documented. i just dont have much faith in any solution verbatim right now. Actually, neither do I. I'm actively resisting the urge to believe anything from OTS to HECS. If I was wishcasting, I would want 4 inches Christmas morning with no wind. But, I'm not sure that's any more (or less) likely than the extremes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Only if they do something foolish, like leave the house. Seriously, winter storms kill people because they aren't content to stay put. That's the problem with big snows in major population centers. The odds of ignorance happening is very high. Some people just don't understand risk involved with travelling during a big storm. I keep my blankets, water, hand warmers, etc in all my cars during the winter. I once got stuck in western Wyoming for a night. Blinding snow and 5 degrees with impassible roads. Luckily I had all my ski clothes with me or I would have been in serious trouble. Not to mention I was in an avalanche prone zone. I'll never forget that night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This storm really doesn't have the model consensus that the feb 5th storm had. True, Wes. But the 00Z Euro ensemble mean was pretty close to the Op's position and strength. I believe that was true for yesterday's 12z as well. I'm very interested to see today's 12z ensembles in the next few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I want to pose a question to you, as I figured it would be easier to get it answered in this thread, most likely by you or Ian. My question is....how does this "slowing down", especially from the Euro reading, affect the track of the storm? Does this give the Atlantic monster time to get out of the way? Also, if this thing does bomb to the levels being depicted, how does that affect its track? the slowing down affects the track because it does 2 things. 1. allows more time for the major atl storm to move out and relax the confluence behind it 2. it times the STJ up better with the amplification in the northern branch. The northern branch has to wait for the major amplification over the atl to relax and move out for it to really dive in. The faster the STJ energy is the more likely it will just die out as it runs into that confluence and then we are left waiting for the northern stream to dive in and spark amplification on its own. The euro solution slows down the STJ so much so that it can phase really early with the AJ and boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It sounds like the Euro ensembles support the operational for the most part. Mean is a hair SE, which is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It sounds like the Euro ensembles support the operational for the most part. Mean is a hair SE, which is to be expected. Looks like it, per Don's post in the 12z model thread. As I commented there, it's amazing how uniform the GFS Op and ensembles are and all completely different from the Euro and its ensembles. I'd really love to see all the Euro's ensembles to really see what the parameter space is on them, but in general they obviously support the idea of a big bombing/near-bomb Hatteras-to-Benchmark snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro has strong ensemble support and GFS has strong Ensemble support. Great - forecaster's nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Channel 7 seems to be leaning to a significant snow event on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow the kiss of death radio show has been announced........all 0Z models to head OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow the kiss of death radio show has been announced........all 0Z models to head OTS What?? Is this supposed to be a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What?? Is this supposed to be a joke? Yes. Radio shows have a somewhat checkered past when it comes to storm outcomes following the hosting of a show... Viewed as a curse by many, going back to euswx days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automator Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What?? Is this supposed to be a joke? My advice is to assume every post in this thread is a joke first, unless you have sufficient evidence to determine otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Channel 7 seems to be leaning to a significant snow event on Christmas day. Hmm. Which model is Bob Ryan/Doug Hill looking at? I thought the Euro was predicting a significant Sunday event, and the GFS was predicting a Saturday non-event. Is anyone predicting a fast track (like the GFS) but also predicting significant snow totals (like the Euro)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmm. Which model is Bob Ryan/Doug Hill looking at? I thought the Euro was predicting a significant Sunday event, and the GFS was predicting a Saturday non-event. Is anyone predicting a fast track (like the GFS) but also predicting significant snow totals (like the Euro)? Much as I respect their many years of service to DC-area prognosticating, they're behind the curve on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's too early for a show, maybe thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does anyone have any of the pre-storm models for the two big boys from last winter? I don't remember either one producing a map as weather-porny as this latest Euro run. (not saying I believe it, it's just an incredible looking picture) The DGEX from 5 or 6 days out on the big one had something like a 40" contour. It was absurd (at the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes. Radio shows have a somewhat checkered past when it comes to storm outcomes following the hosting of a show... Viewed as a curse by many, going back to euswx days. Thank you. My advice is to assume every post in this thread is a joke first, unless you have sufficient evidence to determine otherwise. Thank you. For us laymen who mostly lurk, inside jokes can send blood pressure through the roof.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know euro is "king" but is anyone else bothered that the euro has a big storm because it it slower with the progression out of the southwest, and the euro is knows for a bias of being too slow with energy out of the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know euro is "king" but is anyone else bothered that the euro has a big storm because it it slower with the progression out of the southwest, and the euro is knows for a bias of being too slow with energy out of the SW? Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The DGEX from 5 or 6 days out on the big one had something like a 40" contour. It was absurd (at the time). It was absurd, but it ended up being very accurate and only slightly exaggerated. It nailed the northern cutoff that shut out NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know euro is "king" but is anyone else bothered that the euro has a big storm because it it slower with the progression out of the southwest, and the euro is knows for a bias of being too slow with energy out of the SW? I'm bothered that it's not snowing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z GFS still cannot turn the corner and still faster than the Euro. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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