WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow. Sub 980 off the MD coast is just plain sick. Euro doesn't want to back off the bombing miller a solution......yet. This would mean 60-70+ MPH NE winds on the coast with immense erosion. 1-2' of snow with 40mph winds in the big cities would bring everything to a halt. The drifting would be ridiculous. If this solution were to verify, it would bring life threathing conditions to millions. Anyone who got stranded on the road would be in serious trouble. Only if they do something foolish, like leave the house. Seriously, winter storms kill people because they aren't content to stay put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DCA has surface temps around 23F for the duration of the storm with 850's from -10 to -12C. Combine that was 1.33" QPF...that's a fun Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DCA has surface temps around 23F for the duration of the storm with 850's from -10 to -12C. Combine that was 1.33" QPF...that's a fun Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. With 15:1 ratios, that's 20" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 With 15:1 ratios, that's 20" of snow! anywhere but at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Anyone worried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Anyone worried? im already digging out so no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 anywhere but at DCA Right. Totals will be like 12 at Dulles , 17 at BWI and 4 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Anyone worried? That we wont get a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 anywhere but at DCA Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DCA has surface temps around 23F for the duration of the storm with 850's from -10 to -12C. Combine that was 1.33" QPF...that's a fun Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Where's your met tag? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I hope Ian gets a changeover to rain while we get a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does anyone know where to find the chart that has temps to snow ratios? I could have sworn I saw it somewhere in the past. If surface temps are ~23 in DCA......I'd expect to be 18-20 here in Frederick.....do like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav.html -- Day 5 HPC map as of today has 992 mb low and deepening near Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Where's your met tag? Just wondering Not to get OT, but I have no idea...I probably signed up wrong during the move from EUSWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I hope Ian gets a changeover to rain while we get a HECS. 600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I guess this is the Mid Atlantic in me, but I can't get on board with the Euro. For one, it moved our storm to another day now and its just ridiculous porn. Its great, but its kinda on its own. If we get half of what its showing, I'd be good. I wish this solution was on the table on Friday instead of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It seems the slower the storm the better and that is why the Euro really blasts us. GFS is too fast hence why its OTS and the GGEM/Ukie seem to be somewhere in the middle. I am not sold on a major snowstorm for DC until we get a supporting model on board. I will say that out of all models, I trust the Euro; but not sure if I trust it on its own. The digging and slow speed it is displaying really helps the early phase and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Does anyone know where to find the chart that has temps to snow ratios? I could have sworn I saw it somewhere in the past. If surface temps are ~23 in DCA......I'd expect to be 18-20 here in Frederick.....do like. Snow ratios are determined more by the temperatures in the cloud where the snow falls than on surface temps. I've seen freezing rain at 20 degrees. What I'm saying is you need to look at the temeprature profiles but they won't be very accurate 5 days in advance of any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I hope Ian gets a changeover to rain while we get a HECS. that's the holiday spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thread title needs to be changed. It is no longer a Xmas thread as it is a 26/27 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 that's the holiday spirit! I hope you get plastered with snow whille we get buried down here. Holiday spirit FTW there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what is this system looking like for south va? just checking in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Only if they do something foolish, like leave the house. Seriously, winter storms kill people because they aren't content to stay put. exactly. and with this being over a holiday, i hope they decide to shelter in place. I can't tell you how many stranded people i have helped get off of I-81 during major winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thread title needs to be changed. It is no longer a Xmas thread as it is a 26/27 threat unless the gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 unless the gfs is right. Since when is the GooFuS right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Since when is the GooFuS right? the euro blizzard fits into the euro bias with southern shortwaves.. i'll keep my fingers crossed for y'all but it's mighty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the euro blizzard fits into the euro bias with southern shortwaves.. i'll keep my fingers crossed for y'all but it's mighty early Hey now I was better with my holiday spirit msg to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Snow ratios are determined more by the temperatures in the cloud where the snow falls than on surface temps. I've seen freezing rain at 20 degrees. What I'm saying is you need to look at the temeprature profiles but they won't be very accurate 5 days in advance of any storm. I understand, but I thought there was kind of....general rule of thumb, etc. I actually got caught in freezing rain when it was in the mid teens in the early 90's( 94 maybe)....no fun. The column is sufficiently cold for very high ratios it would seem though.....is that not correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hey now I was better with my holiday spirit msg to you... ok, enjoy your 18" of pretend snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't get the panic (...ok, I sort of do ;-) ). The euro shows a MECS at 0z and now barely gives us .1", but we all buy this run? In all likelihood it will show something completely different tonight. I know the Canadian also screws us, but it too looked really good last night, so it's a huge shift for just one run. I'm with Randy on this...no need to get all worked up yet since we are still 100+ hours away. Of course we still probably will get screwed, ha, but I'm not stepping up to the ledge yet. :-) What a difference 24 hours makes. Yesterday at this time there was gloom and doom over the euro's .05-.10" QPF...now it gives us ~1.25-1.4". Live and die by each run, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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