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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Again that pattern did not involve the firehouse in the southwest. I'm not ignoring that persistent pattern, just letting you know this is a completely different set-up than what we have had so far this winter.

the firehose is cool but it's different than getting a feed from the tropics thru the gulf of mex or something. no doubt it's needed juice either way but the mtns suck a lot of it up on the passage east for sure.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries.

I was thinking the same thing earlier. The chances of a HECS level event have increased the so too have the chances of nothing happening at all. The models are converging on a solution that digs the energy much further south. This increases the chances for this storm to crank up and bomb out but it also means all or nothing. That said I really am disturbed by the fact that even on models that seem to develop the phasing and upper level features we want (like a closed h7 and h5 low to our southwest) still do not manage to get significant precip going until north and east of our region. We have to hope that their surface is incorrect right now because frankly we can not hope for a better upper level development then the 12z GGEM for example, that has a totally closed mid and upper level low over Roanoke but still manages only 1-2" for our area. Last nights Euro went absolutely crazy with an upper level and SLP that matched January 1996 closely and yet gave IAD only 4". The biggest issue right now is the models are changing the evolution of the system. Instead of having the STJ energy amplify and phase into the northern branch, instead they are squashing the STJ energy and then 12 hours later amplifying a northern branch vort that comes down out of Canada. That is why you see a good snowfall for the plains and midwest, then it just dies and then goes nuts for new england. We need this to trend back to a stronger STJ vort that amplifies then bombs instead of having the northern branch dominate it. The scenario shown now is a miller a but for our region has characteristics of a miller b because we are waiting for the northern branch to phase in rather then amplify a southern branch system. Still a lot of time for these changes to happen and I am hopeful that when the energy comes onshore the models will see more then expected and things could take a turn on guidance in our favor.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The track is still OK. Folks are calling this a MIller B and maybe it is, but the low goes way south and pops off the SC coast, which is normally fine for us.

I know everyone is salivating over the Euro right now...but the problem that other guidance shows is not the track. And we still have hope because the track is good, but the possible snag is the way the energy is handed off between the STJ and the PJ. For our area to do well the storm must be a southern branch system, its very very rare to get a northern dominated system that works out for more then a low end SECS for DC at most. We need the phasing to key on the STJ energy and incorporate it into the northern branch and bomb. Some guidance the last 24 hours is instead having the AJ dominate and kill the STJ energy. That is one reason the storm is delayed on models now, its really a peice of northern stream energy diving in 12 hours later that is dominant and phases with the remnants of the old STJ energy and bombs. Instead of the STJ energy slowly amplifying and then bombing as it moves up the coast and phases, they kill the STJ wave and instead bomb a northern jet driven vort. That is the issue. Now...our options for a storm here are to either have the northern stream go nuts and dig to china and bomb far enough south we get in it...has happened before but rarely. Or have the STJ energy hold a little stronger and be more of a player thus allowing earlier phasing and more moisture feed in the early stages of the development of the storm. While I am "worried" I have not lost hope.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

careful UKMET looks amazing but is about 100 miles too far east for DC I would think. That is going to hook back in and destroy Philly to Boston but we need the low to be in over the outer banks when it crosses that lattitude not out that far east. I am VERY excited/encouraged by the euro and I really think there is a chance other guidance comes in line with it as the GGEM/UKMET are close. But as of right now they are a close miss for DC, and the GFS is a complete mess and lost probably in its evolution of the system. Right now the only guidance showing a massive hit for DC is the Euro and we just got fooled by one crazy run of the euro last week so I am hesitant before setting myself up for another letdown. I will wait patiently for some other guidance to lend support, or to see consistency out of the euro in that amplified and west of a storm track before jumping on it.

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JustinBerk

JustinBerk

Posted
Posted

Could I make a suggestion: If the GFS comes back at 18Z or 00Z closer to the ECMWF- could you all PEASE STOP QUOTING THE GFS?

It is the American Model, it is the primary for many US forecaster, and it is not that good this far out!

It is notoriously a flip flopper. All eyes on XMas make this a bigger deal, but even if it slows down... there will be snow. Just know there is more to life than the GFS

ONE MORE THING! It will be much colder behind this storm than is being credited. Highs out of the 20s with fresh snowpack will be hard... so if you do make a forecast, keep that in mind too.

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CheesyPoofs

CheesyPoofs

Posted
Posted

careful UKMET looks amazing but is about 100 miles too far east for DC I would think. That is going to hook back in and destroy Philly to Boston but we need the low to be in over the outer banks when it crosses that lattitude not out that far east. I am VERY excited/encouraged by the euro and I really think there is a chance other guidance comes in line with it as the GGEM/UKMET are close. But as of right now they are a close miss for DC, and the GFS is a complete mess and lost probably in its evolution of the system. Right now the only guidance showing a massive hit for DC is the Euro and we just got fooled by one crazy run of the euro last week so I am hesitant before setting myself up for another letdown. I will wait patiently for some other guidance to lend support, or to see consistency out of the euro in that amplified and west of a storm track before jumping on it.

True, but last weeks situation was one random hiccup from the Euro. Even the 0z run last night gave us a significant storm (though obviously not nearly as extreme as at 12z), as did the 0z run the night before. So that makes 3 out of the last 4 runs of the Euro that have given us a significant to major storm.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Wow. Sub 980 off the MD coast is just plain sick. Euro doesn't want to back off the bombing miller a solution......yet. This would mean 60-70+ MPH NE winds on the coast with immense erosion. 1-2' of snow with 40mph winds in the big cities would bring everything to a halt. The drifting would be ridiculous. If this solution were to verify, it would bring life threathing conditions to millions. Anyone who got stranded on the road would be in serious trouble.

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weatherwonder

weatherwonder

Posted
Posted

Could I make a suggestion: If the GFS comes back at 18Z or 00Z closer to the ECMWF- could you all PEASE STOP QUOTING THE GFS?

It is the American Model, it is the primary for many US forecaster, and it is not that good this far out!

It is notoriously a flip flopper. All eyes on XMas make this a bigger deal, but even if it slows down... there will be snow. Just know there is more to life than the GFS

ONE MORE THING! It will be much colder behind this storm than is being credited. Highs out of the 20s with fresh snowpack will be hard... so if you do make a forecast, keep that in mind too.

Ditto

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

Wow. Sub 980 off the MD coast is just plain sick. Euro doesn't want to back off the bombing miller a solution......yet. This would mean 60-70+ MPH NE winds on the coast with immense erosion. 1-2' of snow with 40mph winds in the big cities would bring everything to a halt. The drifting would be ridiculous. If this solution were to verify, it would bring life threathing conditions to millions. Anyone who got stranded on the road would be in serious trouble.

The power of prayer may just prevent this storm.

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Curlyq

Curlyq

Posted
Posted

Wow. Sub 980 off the MD coast is just plain sick. Euro doesn't want to back off the bombing miller a solution......yet. This would mean 60-70+ MPH NE winds on the coast with immense erosion. 1-2' of snow with 40mph winds in the big cities would bring everything to a halt. The drifting would be ridiculous. If this solution were to verify, it would bring life threathing conditions to millions. Anyone who got stranded on the road would be in serious trouble.

That is a hurricane strength low!

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I was thinking the same thing earlier. The chances of a HECS level event have increased the so too have the chances of nothing happening at all. The models are converging on a solution that digs the energy much further south. This increases the chances for this storm to crank up and bomb out but it also means all or nothing. That said I really am disturbed by the fact that even on models that seem to develop the phasing and upper level features we want (like a closed h7 and h5 low to our southwest) still do not manage to get significant precip going until north and east of our region. We have to hope that their surface is incorrect right now because frankly we can not hope for a better upper level development then the 12z GGEM for example, that has a totally closed mid and upper level low over Roanoke but still manages only 1-2" for our area. Last nights Euro went absolutely crazy with an upper level and SLP that matched January 1996 closely and yet gave IAD only 4". The biggest issue right now is the models are changing the evolution of the system. Instead of having the STJ energy amplify and phase into the northern branch, instead they are squashing the STJ energy and then 12 hours later amplifying a northern branch vort that comes down out of Canada. That is why you see a good snowfall for the plains and midwest, then it just dies and then goes nuts for new england. We need this to trend back to a stronger STJ vort that amplifies then bombs instead of having the northern branch dominate it. The scenario shown now is a miller a but for our region has characteristics of a miller b because we are waiting for the northern branch to phase in rather then amplify a southern branch system. Still a lot of time for these changes to happen and I am hopeful that when the energy comes onshore the models will see more then expected and things could take a turn on guidance in our favor.

I want to pose a question to you, as I figured it would be easier to get it answered in this thread, most likely by you or Ian. My question is....how does this "slowing down", especially from the Euro reading, affect the track of the storm? Does this give the Atlantic monster time to get out of the way? Also, if this thing does bomb to the levels being depicted, how does that affect its track?

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