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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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Can you explain that part? IMHO, there was better agreement of a hit for MA, albeit a smaller one, yesterday. Today the storm appears universally larger. but the models are diverging on us getting in on the action. Not saying that effects the outcome, but I guess I'm not sure I agree with the characterization of "better off".

We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries.

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I think the issue is you seem to be mocking us more than usual. Not sure why. Well, I know why.

i dont think so... mocking you because you keep trolling me but other than that i dont see the mocking.

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Canadian seems to come in between the GFS and the Euro. Somewhat of a middle ground, although it supports the Euro moreso because it's showing a coastal storm, whereas the GFS says: Coastal, what coastal?

The track is still OK. Folks are calling this a MIller B and maybe it is, but the low goes way south and pops off the SC coast, which is normally fine for us.

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We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries.

Given that "All or nothing" tends give the MA the screw job, hence my objection to the "better off" part. But, hey, its Christmas, and its better to give than receive, so we'll "give" this storm to NE....

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Models have been flopping between Miller A and Miller B for a while now. It appears the models are having trouble figuring what to do with the southern stream at about 84 hours out or so, which is where everything seems to diverge.

This is not really a Miller B. I don't think Miller B's usually feature STJ lows heading NNE off the GA coast...

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Models have been flopping between Miller A and Miller B for a while now. It appears the models are having trouble figuring what to do with the southern stream at about 84 hours out or so, which is where everything seems to diverge.

Agree - at the risk of reposting and quoting myself, as far as I can tell, this is in great part all about timing. Miss the opportunity to phase, and you're OTS. Euro thinks that timing has to be later for a coastal storm to form; GFS thinks it has to be earlier. Therefore, slower GFS run = OTS. I still think the main moving part in this is the current Atlantic low, which GFS, NAM and Euro all play differently in the short term.

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Do you see the STJ in the southwest? Not a typical Nina. I'd be careful here comparing this to typical nina storms.

of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door...

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of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door...

Fair enough. Just saying when you see that fire hose out west it can be a first sign that the southern stream is taking control of the pattern, at least short term. Who knows what will win out in the end, and I think the models are showing are having a heck of a time figuring that out too. Perhaps climo wins and STJ just dies out, who knows. Euro certainly likes the southern stream.

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of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door...

Not only ignoring climo but also ignoring what the persistent pattern has been lately which is to scoot everything off the SE coast.

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doesnt the euro sometimes overdo stj energy? usually i'd wait for things to go to the euro but for some reason i anticipate it bailing next.

If you take the GFS bias of northern stream and Euro bias of southern stream, the models are actually in a perfect spot right now for a hybrid that hits DC, IMHO.

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doesnt the euro sometimes overdo stj energy? usually i'd wait for things to go to the euro but for some reason i anticipate it bailing next.

I hope the final nail comes in about 45 minutes, or a solution that has enough support, practicality, that those with the knowledge can feel and express confidence in. What's going on now, as I see it, is a whole bunch of different scenarios that nobody is very confident in. I can deal with no possiblility of snow much better than 10 different scenarios each with a 10% chance of happening. One way or the other is my hope, and soon.

BTW, all of the players for this storm, when will they all be sampled to the point that we can start to expect some consensus on what's going to occur?

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Not only ignoring climo but also ignoring what the persistent pattern has been lately which is to scoot everything off the SE coast.

Again that pattern did not involve the firehouse in the southwest. I'm not ignoring that persistent pattern, just letting you know this is a completely different set-up than what we have had so far this winter.

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If the Euro goes north and east at 12z I can't imagine the reaction.

I hope the final nail comes in about 45 minutes, or a solution that has enough support, practicality, that those with the knowledge can feel and express confidence in. What's going on now, as I see it, is a whole bunch of different scenarios that nobody is very confident in. I can deal with no possiblility of snow much better than 10 different scenarios each with a 10% chance of happening. One way or the other is my hope, and soon.

BTW, all of the players for this storm, when will they all be sampled to the point that we can start to expect some consensus on what's going to occur?

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