PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can you explain that part? IMHO, there was better agreement of a hit for MA, albeit a smaller one, yesterday. Today the storm appears universally larger. but the models are diverging on us getting in on the action. Not saying that effects the outcome, but I guess I'm not sure I agree with the characterization of "better off". We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 not if it's a whif. hey i dont even really want to go to SNE but i'll take snow if it happens... i dont see people who "chase" snow getting railed on for seeing snow outside their backyard I think the issue is you seem to be mocking us more than usual. Not sure why. Well, I know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the issue is you seem to be mocking us more than usual. Not sure why. Well, I know why. i dont think so... mocking you because you keep trolling me but other than that i dont see the mocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 One run OTS is not enough for me to throw in any towel, I don't give a crap who is saying what. Final solution shouldn't even be mentioned at this point. The final solution should NEVER be mentioned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Canadian seems to come in between the GFS and the Euro. Somewhat of a middle ground, although it supports the Euro moreso because it's showing a coastal storm, whereas the GFS says: Coastal, what coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i dont think so... mocking you because you keep trolling me but other than that i dont see the mocking. Based on your post at 40S, you seem to be stressed out by the weenies/holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Canadian seems to come in between the GFS and the Euro. Somewhat of a middle ground, although it supports the Euro moreso because it's showing a coastal storm, whereas the GFS says: Coastal, what coastal? The track is still OK. Folks are calling this a MIller B and maybe it is, but the low goes way south and pops off the SC coast, which is normally fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries. One met predicts a repeat of December 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We are heading back into "all or nothing" territory. Either the phase happens sooner and we get a MECS or we get some flurries. Given that "All or nothing" tends give the MA the screw job, hence my objection to the "better off" part. But, hey, its Christmas, and its better to give than receive, so we'll "give" this storm to NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 One met predicts a repeat of December 2000 PSUPete, a notorious troll. Notice he doesn't post that when runs show snow for us, like 00Z Euro last night... BTW, he is also not a met. He was in medical school last I heard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Based on your post at 40S, you seem to be stressed out by the weenies/holidays. have you considered becoming a psychiatrist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Models have been flopping between Miller A and Miller B for a while now. It appears the models are having trouble figuring what to do with the southern stream at about 84 hours out or so, which is where everything seems to diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Models have been flopping between Miller A and Miller B for a while now. It appears the models are having trouble figuring what to do with the southern stream at about 84 hours out or so, which is where everything seems to diverge. This is not really a Miller B. I don't think Miller B's usually feature STJ lows heading NNE off the GA coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Models have been flopping between Miller A and Miller B for a while now. It appears the models are having trouble figuring what to do with the southern stream at about 84 hours out or so, which is where everything seems to diverge. Agree - at the risk of reposting and quoting myself, as far as I can tell, this is in great part all about timing. Miss the opportunity to phase, and you're OTS. Euro thinks that timing has to be later for a coastal storm to form; GFS thinks it has to be earlier. Therefore, slower GFS run = OTS. I still think the main moving part in this is the current Atlantic low, which GFS, NAM and Euro all play differently in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 See HM's video blog. He ran with the earlier run of the GFS this morning and had a wiff of MA and a pound of NE. YMMV, of course. So you're talking about Henry Margusity and an old run of the GFS? He's his own model sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is not really a Miller B. I don't think Miller B's usually feature STJ lows heading NNE off the GA coast... Not all models have been showing that. I'm leaning toward the Miller A solutions. But there have been Miller B solutions thrown out by other models, namely the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 miller b far more likely in a nina imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 PSUPete, a notorious troll. Notice he doesn't post that when runs show snow for us, like 00Z Euro last night... BTW, he is also not a met. He was in medical school last I heard... No..it was Storm at Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No..it was Storm at Sea. Storm at Sea is PSU Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 miller b far more likely in a nina imo. Do you see the STJ in the southwest? Not a typical Nina. I'd be careful here comparing this to typical nina storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Do you see the STJ in the southwest? Not a typical Nina. I'd be careful here comparing this to typical nina storms. of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door... Fair enough. Just saying when you see that fire hose out west it can be a first sign that the southern stream is taking control of the pattern, at least short term. Who knows what will win out in the end, and I think the models are showing are having a heck of a time figuring that out too. Perhaps climo wins and STJ just dies out, who knows. Euro certainly likes the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Fair enough. doesnt the euro sometimes overdo stj energy? usually i'd wait for things to go to the euro but for some reason i anticipate it bailing next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i think dc will do well might not be 24" ji, but snow on christmas is what many wish for, and we have the best chance in years for that. why everyone gets worked up 4 days from an event over a model run is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 of course i see it.. it also washes out coming east (at least on 12z so far) and the ultimate coastal looks to be heavily northern stream dominated. i'd be careful throwing nina climo out the door... Not only ignoring climo but also ignoring what the persistent pattern has been lately which is to scoot everything off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 doesnt the euro sometimes overdo stj energy? usually i'd wait for things to go to the euro but for some reason i anticipate it bailing next. If you take the GFS bias of northern stream and Euro bias of southern stream, the models are actually in a perfect spot right now for a hybrid that hits DC, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 doesnt the euro sometimes overdo stj energy? usually i'd wait for things to go to the euro but for some reason i anticipate it bailing next. I hope the final nail comes in about 45 minutes, or a solution that has enough support, practicality, that those with the knowledge can feel and express confidence in. What's going on now, as I see it, is a whole bunch of different scenarios that nobody is very confident in. I can deal with no possiblility of snow much better than 10 different scenarios each with a 10% chance of happening. One way or the other is my hope, and soon. BTW, all of the players for this storm, when will they all be sampled to the point that we can start to expect some consensus on what's going to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not only ignoring climo but also ignoring what the persistent pattern has been lately which is to scoot everything off the SE coast. Again that pattern did not involve the firehouse in the southwest. I'm not ignoring that persistent pattern, just letting you know this is a completely different set-up than what we have had so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Every storm 5 days out... This board is too predictable. The nam or gfs inevitably has a somewhat bad run… everyone throws in a towel, then theres a good run, and everyone is back on track. Repeat scenario at 4 days and occasionally at 3 days out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the Euro goes north and east at 12z I can't imagine the reaction. I hope the final nail comes in about 45 minutes, or a solution that has enough support, practicality, that those with the knowledge can feel and express confidence in. What's going on now, as I see it, is a whole bunch of different scenarios that nobody is very confident in. I can deal with no possiblility of snow much better than 10 different scenarios each with a 10% chance of happening. One way or the other is my hope, and soon. BTW, all of the players for this storm, when will they all be sampled to the point that we can start to expect some consensus on what's going to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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