Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

[mitchnick]

I'm more interested in this threat than the last. The pattern looks more like a typical one where we get snow. Tthe ridge to the west is stronger and even has some positive anomlaies associated with it. The block is in a good place to force the low south of us. The negative anomaly near KY/TN would be a little better if it were a tad more to the south but its still pretty good and there is pretty good agreement amongst the individual members that there will be a storm. It's a more viable threat the the dec 19th storm which just had too many moving parts and needed perfect phasing.

in sum, Merry Christmas to all from Wes

[mitchnick]

9Z SREFs like the clipper threat for another inch or 2 early in the week as well

[aldie 22]

in sum, Merry Christmas to all from Wes

I like less moving parts especially as I get older

[usedtobe]

in sum, Merry Christmas to all from Wes

It's still a week away so lots can go wrong but it's a pattern that looks a little easier to get a storm than the last one. The bigger ridge suggests fewer moving parts. Still, there are ensemble members that would be too far north to support all snow and a couple that are too weak and south to give us much.

[mitchnick]

It's still a week away so lots can go wrong but it's a pattern that looks a little easier to get a storm than the last one. The bigger ridge suggests fewer moving parts. Still, there are ensemble members that would be too far north to support all snow and a couple that are too weak and south to give us much.

it seems the pattern that we are locked into now would give the greatest risk for a miss to the south vs. anything to our NW

that block is brutal and it makes me more than a little uncomfortable that I have more snow than most places in NE outside of the mts

fwiw, CFS, which did have a very accurate forecast at the beginning of NOV for the month of DEC-I know its current forecast for DEC is a little wacky, is advertising a colder than normal JAN as well for both eastern US and Europe because of persistent blocking

I don't know if we ever score big on snow this year, but I think more than a few temp forecasts for the winter may bust as being too high around here

[aldie 22]

Since this time of year is the busiest for me at work it doesn't really allow me much time during the day to track any threats. It sure did help me out this week to not invest much if any energy or emotion into this weekends flop. Next week I have my sons birthday on Tuesday my 20th wedding anniversary on Wednesday and I work for a grocery store and it's Christmas week.....I won't have time to go to the bathroom much less track a snow event.....unless it looks like last year

[mitchnick]

is it me or does anyone else think that cold water off our coast is helping to keep the slp further offshore?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

[mitchnick]

Since this time of year is the busiest for me at work it doesn't really allow me much time during the day to track any threats. It sure did help me out this week to not invest much if any energy or emotion into this weekends flop. Next week I have my sons birthday on Tuesday my 20th wedding anniversary on Wednesday and I work for a grocery store and it's Christmas week.....I won't have time to go to the bathroom much less track a snow event.....unless it looks like last year

congrats on the birthday and anniversary

we had our 25th this year

where the he!! did all those years go?

never mind, my body knows if not my mind

[usedtobe]

is it me or does anyone else think that cold water off our coast is helping to keep the slp further offshore?

http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html

I don't, the reason it stayed offshore was the disconnect the the surface boundary starting so far north and the lack of phasing in the northern stream. That's a classic atlantic tripole pattern which is what usually develops when you have a strong negative nao. It also can help sustain the nao through feedback.

[mitchnick]

I don't, the reason it stayed offshore was the disconnect the the surface boundary starting so far north and the lack of phasing in the northern stream. That's a classic atlantic tripole pattern which is what usually develops when you have a strong negative nao. It also can help sustain the nao through feedback.

I was thinking maybe it kept the cold land/warm water boundary further off the coast

I do recall DEC 95 had the cold off the east coast too and we know how that turned out, but I don't think it was as pronounced as the cold water off the coast

well, I'll take my chances with a -NAO any winter

[Terpeast]

The chance of my Dallas-to-DCA flight being delayed on xmas day increases with each passing day. Still a small chance, but nevertheless.

[nw baltimore wx]

The chance of my Dallas-to-DCA flight being delayed on xmas day increases with each passing day. Still a small chance, but nevertheless.

I've been waiting for a true white Christmas all of my life and watch it happen this year because I'm getting on a plane Christmas eve at 7AM.

[usedtobe]

The chance of my Dallas-to-DCA flight being delayed on xmas day increases with each passing day. Still a small chance, but nevertheless.

lol. The D+8 superensemble mean identified two KU storms with its 10 analogs. That's the first time this year they have shown any. The D+8 spit out Dec 1966 and dec 1969. As you know but others might not, the analogs are determined by taking the a 5 day mean of the 500h pattern centered on the middle day of the pattern. The D+11 also shows new years eve 1970 another 4 inch storm for dca. The pattern suggests that sometime in the window from Dec 24-jan 1 the threat of a siginfican 4 inch or greater storm is probably in the 20 to 30 percent range. That sounds low but is way higher than climo for that period which is about 10%.

[gymengineer]

lol. The D+8 superensemble mean identified two KU storms with its 10 analogs. That's the first time this year they have shown any. The D+8 spit out Dec 1966 and dec 1969. As you know but others might not, the analogs are determined by taking the a 5 day mean of the 500h pattern centered on the middle day of the pattern. The D+11 also shows new years eve 1970 another 4 inch storm for dca. The pattern suggests that sometime in the window from Dec 24-jan 1 the threat of a siginfican 4 inch or greater storm is probably in the 20 to 30 percent range. That sounds low but is way higher than climo for that period which is about 10%.

Not to suggest anything about snow amounts-- just a bit of stats: those three snowstorms ranged from 9-15" at IAD, with the NYE storm being the largest single snowstorm at the airport until PDI.Two were 12"+.

All three storms had changeover issues in DC, with a range of 5-9". The NYE storm was again the biggest out of the three.

[usedtobe]

Not to suggest anything about snow amounts-- just a bit of stats: those three snowstorms ranged from 9-15" at IAD, with the NYE storm being the largest single snowstorm at the airport until PDI.Two were 12"+.

All three storms had changeover issues in DC, with a range of 5-9". The NYE storm was again the biggest out of the three.

I don't think anyone should think a storm this year will mimic any of those storms. All the analogs do is identify periods where you have enhanced potential for a significant winter storm. Even then most of the analog year picked didn't have a storm so lots can still go wrong.

[Bob Chill]

Pretty cool to be at least tracking a Christmas storm. Seems like we are hoping it won't rain on Xmas way more often than tracking a snow threat. My simple weather mind like the combination of continued cold and massive (almost record) amounts of moisture slamming the west coast and rockies.

I have a question for the Mets: Why has a regular overrunning event been non-existent around the MA the last few years?

Those were always the old faithful 2-4 / 3-5 events and they usually aren't hell on the nerves. Even our typical ice storms have been elusive.

[gymengineer]

I don't think anyone should think a storm this year will mimic any of those storms. All the analogs do is identify periods where you have enhanced potential for a significant winter storm. Even then most of the analog year picked didn't have a storm so lots can still go wrong.

Yup, understood. Just wanted to give info on those 3 storms for those that might have been unfamiliar, since all were historically significant for the western suburbs.

[2010 extreme]

12 gfs is dreaming of a white christmas, booombing off the coast.

[ThePhotoGuy]

If this was correct, 30 hours of snow. If only it could come true.

[aldie 22]

Todays 12z GFS run is a keeper....regardless if it happens like that or not it is showing what most of us down here want ON Christmas day!!

[stormtracker]

Todays 12z GFS run is a keeper....regardless if it happens like that or not it is showing what most of us down here want ON Christmas day!!

Cut the qpf in half and I'd be just as happpy.

[Kevin Druff]

Cut the qpf in half and I'd be just as happpy.

Yup. Extremely. I'd be happy just to watch a couple, 4, 5, inches fall on Christmas eve. Be the perfect ending to a great 2010 snow wise.

[aldie 22]

Cut the qpf in half and I'd be just as happpy.

That's the key brother...climo/nina/karma whatever if we sit here and root for a nice 3-6 or 4-8" storm I think there won't be much disappointment...if we sit here hoping for February 5th all over again there will be a lot of coal in our stockings

[NorthShoreWx]

is it me or does anyone else think that cold water off our coast is helping to keep the slp further offshore?

http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html

They didn't specifically single out water temps, but BOX was pondering similar questions of the universe in the second paragraph of the short term section in this afd:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0&highlight=off

[gymengineer]

Now that the foot-plus solution has popped up, it's hard not to compare subsequent runs to this run. That's why I think it's better for us freaks when models show a more moderate threat in the medium range and then amp it up when we get within 2 days.

[PhineasC]

GFS has had a storm for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for several runs now.

[Ian]

I dont believe in Santa Claus

[aldie 22]

Yep

150 12/24 18Z 25 24 111 7 0.26 0.00 535 545 -7.1 -20.1 1012.6 98 -SN 027BKN112 119BKN216 233BKN363 25 22 0.5

156 12/25 00Z 25 25 82 6 0.17 0.00 533 540 -5.5 -24.6 1008.5 99 -SN 008BKN115 123BKN169 231BKN334 25 25 0.0

162 12/25 06Z 26 26 18 10 0.17 0.00 530 533 -4.7 -28.1 1003.1 99 -SN 006OVC114 114OVC154 FEW 26 24 0.0

168 12/25 12Z 24 24 346 14 0.36 0.00 529 531 -5.0 -28.2 1001.3 99 SN 007BKN112 112OVC193 223FEW241 26 24 0.0

174 12/25 18Z 26 26 329 17 0.38 0.00 528 529 -7.6 -26.5 1001.0 100 SN 014BKN112 115OVC214 222BKN258 26 24 0.5

180 12/26 00Z 22 21 325 18 0.07 0.00 527 530 -7.7 -27.5 1004.4 99 -SN 048BKN112 149BKN201 222OVC299 26 22 1.1

[aldie 22]

I find it annoying that two people on here are in semi troll mode because they have travel plans during this potential...not you terpeast.

[PhineasC]

Wes is starting to be a little more positive about this storm. He just told DT it is a legit threat. That is a good sign, guys.