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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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but the extrapolated nam gives us like 3 feet so i think we're ok

I've come to realize that the extremely dry sarcasm and personal jabs on this board is at least partially why so many newbs are left in the dark so often - myself included. I've been participating and reading posts from you guys for the better part of 3 years now and I still don't pick up on it right away...

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I've come to realize that the extremely dry sarcasm and personal jabs on this board is at least partially why so many newbs are left in the dark so often - myself included. I've been participating and reading posts from you guys for the better part of 3 years now and I still don't pick up on it right away...

yeah you're probably right... i was being jerky about people extrapolating the nam which is a pretty silly endeavor imo.

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yeah you're probably right... i was being jerky about people extrapolating the nam which is a pretty silly endeavor imo.

But it leads to an interesting question... If the NAM at the end of its cycle is now doing what the GFS was doing 3-5 days ago, nearer the end of its cycle, is there a similar bias built in to both models, but stretching over different timeframes at a relative equivalent?

Just postulating here... But we did see something similar with the 'non-event' from this past weekend.

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Question. Does the GFS give Baltimore-DC any precip? Are we on the northern fringe for at least an inch or two??

Also, if the GFS is south and OTS and the Euro north, isn't this is a pretty good place for the Mid-Atlantic to be right now, 5 days out -- right in the middle?

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Question. Does the GFS give Baltimore-DC any precip? Are we on the northern fringe for at least an inch or two??

Also, if the GFS is south and OTS and the Euro north, isn't this is a pretty good place for the Mid-Atlantic to be right now, 5 days out -- right in the middle?

12GFS Run

Find the appropriate hours (say 114) and go over to the 60 hour precip link and you will have your answer. (for the precip question).

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GGEM is another ugly run for us. Heads OTS and then loops around and slams into SNE. Ian should be happy and I am sure he will tell us so.

i've barely even commented on sne except in the sne thread.. what's your deal?

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LOL... it appears no matter what thread I open there is doom for the MA on this day 5/6 threat. I guess guidance has come along way in reducing forecasting errors with storms in just the last 2 days.

GGEM has a closed 500mb LP to our southwest. That's a good thing even if the 132 hour map gives us not much QPF.

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WIll you still take pictures?

not if it's a whif.

hey i dont even really want to go to SNE but i'll take snow if it happens... i dont see people who "chase" snow getting railed on for seeing snow outside their backyard

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See HM's video blog. He ran with the earlier run of the GFS this morning and had a wiff of MA and a pound of NE. YMMV, of course.

:lol:

One run OTS is not enough for me to throw in any towel, I don't give a crap who is saying what. Final solution shouldn't even be mentioned at this point.

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we're still better off, relatively speaking, than yesterday at this time

Can you explain that part? IMHO, there was better agreement of a hit for MA, albeit a smaller one, yesterday. Today the storm appears universally larger. but the models are diverging on us getting in on the action. Not saying that effects the outcome, but I guess I'm not sure I agree with the characterization of "better off".

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