Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS just went OTS.... but the extrapolated nam gives us like 3 feet so i think we're ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 but the extrapolated nam gives us like 3 feet so i think we're ok GFS misses your Christmas party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 but the extrapolated nam gives us like 3 feet so i think we're ok I've come to realize that the extremely dry sarcasm and personal jabs on this board is at least partially why so many newbs are left in the dark so often - myself included. I've been participating and reading posts from you guys for the better part of 3 years now and I still don't pick up on it right away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've come to realize that the extremely dry sarcasm and personal jabs on this board is at least partially why so many newbs are left in the dark so often - myself included. I've been participating and reading posts from you guys for the better part of 3 years now and I still don't pick up on it right away... yeah you're probably right... i was being jerky about people extrapolating the nam which is a pretty silly endeavor imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yeah you're probably right... i was being jerky about people extrapolating the nam which is a pretty silly endeavor imo. But it leads to an interesting question... If the NAM at the end of its cycle is now doing what the GFS was doing 3-5 days ago, nearer the end of its cycle, is there a similar bias built in to both models, but stretching over different timeframes at a relative equivalent? Just postulating here... But we did see something similar with the 'non-event' from this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here are things as I see it for the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS goes straight East, I guess MN Transplant was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here are things as I see it for the next 3 days That has to be Ji watching the match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS goes straight East, I guess MN Transplant was on to something. it's still certainly a risk but the gfs had trouble with the last storm so i dunno if i'd be too worried about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it's still certainly a risk but the gfs had trouble with the last storm so i dunno if i'd be too worried about it Fair enough this far out, but he deserves props for the "hey the positive tilt might zoom this out wide" followed within an hour a model solution showing that. Credit where credit due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HM......The GFS has the correct solution...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Question. Does the GFS give Baltimore-DC any precip? Are we on the northern fringe for at least an inch or two?? Also, if the GFS is south and OTS and the Euro north, isn't this is a pretty good place for the Mid-Atlantic to be right now, 5 days out -- right in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HM......The GFS has the correct solution...... Care to explain that further please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Question. Does the GFS give Baltimore-DC any precip? Are we on the northern fringe for at least an inch or two?? Also, if the GFS is south and OTS and the Euro north, isn't this is a pretty good place for the Mid-Atlantic to be right now, 5 days out -- right in the middle? 12GFS Run Find the appropriate hours (say 114) and go over to the 60 hour precip link and you will have your answer. (for the precip question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Care to explain that further please? See HM's video blog. He ran with the earlier run of the GFS this morning and had a wiff of MA and a pound of NE. YMMV, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is another ugly run for us. Heads OTS and then loops around and slams into SNE. Ian should be happy and I am sure he will tell us so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 See HM's video blog. He ran with the earlier run of the GFS this morning and had a wiff of MA and a pound of NE. YMMV, of course. what marguisity is going with a whif? lolz that's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is another ugly run for us. Heads OTS and then loops around and slams into SNE. Ian should be happy and I am sure he will tell us so. i've barely even commented on sne except in the sne thread.. what's your deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what marguisity is going with a whif? lolz that's crazy. I just report. You decide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, there's a very real possibility now that we might get shut out. I still lean against it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, there's a very real possibility now that we might get shut out. I still lean against it at this point. are you new to this stuff? stop the waffling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, there's a very real possibility now that we might get shut out. I still lean against it at this point. we are 4+ days away that's always been a possibility we're still better off, relatively speaking, than yesterday at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL... it appears no matter what thread I open there is doom for the MA on this day 5/6 threat. I guess guidance has come along way in reducing forecasting errors with storms in just the last 2 days. GGEM has a closed 500mb LP to our southwest. That's a good thing even if the 132 hour map gives us not much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i've barely even commented on sne except in the sne thread.. what's your deal? WIll you still take pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, there's a very real possibility now that we might get shut out. I still lean against it at this point. It is going to hurt real bad if this thing hits RIC and then goes OTS only to loop around and hit BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WIll you still take pictures? not if it's a whif. hey i dont even really want to go to SNE but i'll take snow if it happens... i dont see people who "chase" snow getting railed on for seeing snow outside their backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 are you new to this stuff? stop the waffling! I guess you must be new to reading? I said I still thing we're in for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 See HM's video blog. He ran with the earlier run of the GFS this morning and had a wiff of MA and a pound of NE. YMMV, of course. One run OTS is not enough for me to throw in any towel, I don't give a crap who is saying what. Final solution shouldn't even be mentioned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 we're still better off, relatively speaking, than yesterday at this time Can you explain that part? IMHO, there was better agreement of a hit for MA, albeit a smaller one, yesterday. Today the storm appears universally larger. but the models are diverging on us getting in on the action. Not saying that effects the outcome, but I guess I'm not sure I agree with the characterization of "better off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I guess you must be new to reading? I said I still thing we're in for something. lol. you said there's a real possibility of a shutout. wait till 0z, maybe the hecs will be back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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