Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What does this mean to us "non-mets?" Slower, greater chance that the system "goes negative" earlier...IOW, better support of something like the Euro...IOW, better chance of a "big storm" for the I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NAM looks ready to build a HECS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NAM looks ready to build a HECS... It sure does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Pardon me being the uber-newbie here but what does HECS mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Pardon me being the uber-newbie here but what does HECS mean? Historic East Coast Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Pardon me being the uber-newbie here but what does HECS mean? Historic East Coast Storm Think Feb 2010, Jan 1996, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Really nice look on the NAM. Everything is trending towards more of a Miller A scenario which is great for us. All models are pointing towards some accum snow in the MA right now. The best Xmas movie to watch on Xmas eve this year is the national radar composite on the 58" plasma. That, some Bing Crosby, and bourbon on the rocks will make a perfect evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Slower, greater chance that the system "goes negative" earlier...IOW, better support of something like the Euro...IOW, better chance of a "big storm" for the I95 corridor. I keep staring at the 500 and 700 loops. Am I the only one concerned that is it so positively tilted that far east still? Looking at 700, it just keeps digging southeastward and 500 shows no signs of "turning the corner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The best Xmas movie to watch on Xmas eve this year is the national radar composite on the 58" plasma. That, some Bing Crosby, and bourbon on the rocks will make a perfect evening. Chistmas Story. Watch that over some adult beverages while sitting in the basement assembling %&*@ toys for the little ones. I was hoping I would be able to watch snow falling to calm me in the process, but it looks like the storm will be late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Could be totally wrong on this, but didn't it look like the NAM was pushing things further to the south at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I keep staring at the 500 and 700 loops. Am I the only one concerned that is it so positively tilted that far east still? Looking at 700, it just keeps digging southeastward and 500 shows no signs of "turning the corner". So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some. Actually it's still pretty far west at 84 hours. Just entering the western gulf. It has a lot of room to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some. No it'll turn, but I don't want it to turn too late for us. Assuming we're all still holding out hope for a fun one, rather than just some white for late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 im okay with 3-6 as long as i shut my computer off when the storm is over and not look at other people getting 12-27 Liar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No it'll turn, but I don't want it to turn too late for us. Assuming we're all still holding out hope for a fun one, rather than just some white for late December. Thanks. The models thread dropped a little tidbit about none of the massive DC storms last year being NESIS 4 (presumably because they largely missed NYC and Boston). I honestly hadn't realized that. This could be a shared East Coast experience. I'm still thinking the timing on arrival will be less than optimal for the "festive" part of it, but probably better for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No it'll turn, but I don't want it to turn too late for us. Assuming we're all still holding out hope for a fun one, rather than just some white for late December. The NAM matches the 0z Euro very well so it still should do ok around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Stunning isn't it? When was the last time you saw a moisture feed with a tropical system on one end and a brewing winter storm on the other. La Nina? What La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 When was the last time you saw a moisture feed with a tropical system on one end and a brewing winter storm on the other. La Nina? What La Nina? More like la nada haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 so we're extrapolating the nam again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the big key will be once the PAC energy comes on shore and the models injest better data on the strength of the STJ wave we will see how much southern stream energy we have to work with and that will determine how our area does. If we are almost entirely northern branch dependent like some runs have indicated we all know how that ends for us. However, I am hopeful that the models are grossly underplaying the amount of STJ involvement this go around and once they pick that up things may improve quickly on the guidance for our area. The stronger the storm is coming out of the gulf coast the faster it will wrap up as it turns NE. This is key for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the big key will be once the PAC energy comes on shore and the models injest better data on the strength of the STJ wave we will see how much southern stream energy we have to work with and that will determine how our area does. If we are almost entirely northern branch dependent like some runs have indicated we all know how that ends for us. However, I am hopeful that the models are grossly underplaying the amount of STJ involvement this go around and once they pick that up things may improve quickly on the guidance for our area. The stronger the storm is coming out of the gulf coast the faster it will wrap up as it turns NE. This is key for our area. I think the water vapor imagery bodes well for the strength of the southern stream at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Check out this loop: Got moisture? This is going to be one fat storm regardless of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the GFS has it grinding to a halt for a late delivery in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 so we're extrapolating the nam again? The best minds here can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Question...Does having a full moon have any effect on HECS? 2010 December: full moon on 12/21 possible storm on 12/25 2010 February: full moon on January 30th then storms on Feb 6th then on Feb 10th 1996 January: full moon on January 5th then storm on or around January 7th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Question...Does having a full moon have any effect on HECS? 2010 December: full moon on 12/21 possible storm on 12/25 2010 February: full moon on January 30th then storms on Feb 6th then on Feb 10th 1996 January: full moon on January 5th then storm on or around January 7th... Ginx in SNE has done some research on this -- I think the short answer is probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Check out this loop: Got moisture? This is going to be one fat storm regardless of the track. The 12/19 storm last year was a big fat one sitting off the coast of Texas before ramming the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ginx in SNE has done some research on this -- I think the short answer is probably I would be interested in that research. Whether something is HECS or not depends where you stand, no? Last winter it was HECS city here in DC, but not up north, whereas the full moon is up and down the coast. Tying the moon phase to the NESIS scale might be a good read, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NAM matches the 0z Euro very well so it still should do ok around here. GFS just went OTS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would be interested in that research. Whether something is HECS or not depends where you stand, no? Last winter it was HECS city here in DC, but not up north, whereas the full moon is up and down the coast. Tying the moon phase to the NESIS scale might be a good read, though. this is some of it... he might have more if you pm him http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/460-ginxys-gale-3-retrieved-from-eastern-phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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