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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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Really nice look on the NAM. Everything is trending towards more of a Miller A scenario which is great for us. All models are pointing towards some accum snow in the MA right now.

The best Xmas movie to watch on Xmas eve this year is the national radar composite on the 58" plasma. That, some Bing Crosby, and bourbon on the rocks will make a perfect evening.

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Slower, greater chance that the system "goes negative" earlier...IOW, better support of something like the Euro...IOW, better chance of a "big storm" for the I95 corridor.

I keep staring at the 500 and 700 loops. Am I the only one concerned that is it so positively tilted that far east still? Looking at 700, it just keeps digging southeastward and 500 shows no signs of "turning the corner".

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The best Xmas movie to watch on Xmas eve this year is the national radar composite on the 58" plasma. That, some Bing Crosby, and bourbon on the rocks will make a perfect evening.

Chistmas Story. Watch that over some adult beverages while sitting in the basement assembling %&*@ toys for the little ones. I was hoping I would be able to watch snow falling to calm me in the process, but it looks like the storm will be late.

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I keep staring at the 500 and 700 loops. Am I the only one concerned that is it so positively tilted that far east still? Looking at 700, it just keeps digging southeastward and 500 shows no signs of "turning the corner".

So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some.

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So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some.

Actually it's still pretty far west at 84 hours. Just entering the western gulf. It has a lot of room to turn the corner.

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So, you're suggesting that the models would show it blowing straight out NC towards Bermuda before turning? Wouldn't that be unusual? I could see it turning late, but its gotta turn some.

No it'll turn, but I don't want it to turn too late for us. Assuming we're all still holding out hope for a fun one, rather than just some white for late December.

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No it'll turn, but I don't want it to turn too late for us. Assuming we're all still holding out hope for a fun one, rather than just some white for late December.

Thanks. The models thread dropped a little tidbit about none of the massive DC storms last year being NESIS 4 (presumably because they largely missed NYC and Boston). I honestly hadn't realized that. This could be a shared East Coast experience. I'm still thinking the timing on arrival will be less than optimal for the "festive" part of it, but probably better for totals.

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I think the big key will be once the PAC energy comes on shore and the models injest better data on the strength of the STJ wave we will see how much southern stream energy we have to work with and that will determine how our area does. If we are almost entirely northern branch dependent like some runs have indicated we all know how that ends for us. However, I am hopeful that the models are grossly underplaying the amount of STJ involvement this go around and once they pick that up things may improve quickly on the guidance for our area. The stronger the storm is coming out of the gulf coast the faster it will wrap up as it turns NE. This is key for our area.

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I think the big key will be once the PAC energy comes on shore and the models injest better data on the strength of the STJ wave we will see how much southern stream energy we have to work with and that will determine how our area does. If we are almost entirely northern branch dependent like some runs have indicated we all know how that ends for us. However, I am hopeful that the models are grossly underplaying the amount of STJ involvement this go around and once they pick that up things may improve quickly on the guidance for our area. The stronger the storm is coming out of the gulf coast the faster it will wrap up as it turns NE. This is key for our area.

I think the water vapor imagery bodes well for the strength of the southern stream at this point.

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Question...Does having a full moon have any effect on HECS?

2010 December: full moon on 12/21 possible storm on 12/25

2010 February: full moon on January 30th then storms on Feb 6th then on Feb 10th

1996 January: full moon on January 5th then storm on or around January 7th...

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Question...Does having a full moon have any effect on HECS?

2010 December: full moon on 12/21 possible storm on 12/25

2010 February: full moon on January 30th then storms on Feb 6th then on Feb 10th

1996 January: full moon on January 5th then storm on or around January 7th...

Ginx in SNE has done some research on this -- I think the short answer is probably

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Ginx in SNE has done some research on this -- I think the short answer is probably

I would be interested in that research. Whether something is HECS or not depends where you stand, no? Last winter it was HECS city here in DC, but not up north, whereas the full moon is up and down the coast. Tying the moon phase to the NESIS scale might be a good read, though.

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I would be interested in that research. Whether something is HECS or not depends where you stand, no? Last winter it was HECS city here in DC, but not up north, whereas the full moon is up and down the coast. Tying the moon phase to the NESIS scale might be a good read, though.

this is some of it... he might have more if you pm him

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/460-ginxys-gale-3-retrieved-from-eastern-phew

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