ravensrule Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 (fixed your spelling for 'ya...) I'm confident that it'll snow. I'm not so confident that it'll be more than an inch, though (especially not up where you are). I'm more than 50% confident that this system is going to be too far south and east..then east and north, to have a huge impact on NVA and MD west of Balt...I think the 0Z EC has little more than a "snowball's chance in Hell" of verifying. I think the 6Z GFS is our best shot scenario...but, unfortunately, I think it's probably a bit too far north. I'm a pessimist, however, at least as far as things that I can't control. I'm an optimist when it comes to things I'm responsible for...but I've yet to find a way to manage the weather. To answer your question, I think the "writing will be on the wall" as they say by 12Z Thursday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were as early as 0Z tonight that certainty starts to build. So Ender what do you think is the best case scenario for Baltimore with this storm?. Thanks for all your info in this thread it is very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ender, sounds like you're leaning towards last night's 6Z DGEX result (not that you're necessarily relying on it) which, to my huge surprise, keeps it at a clipper that results in a few hours of light snow/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dang Ender...did you just play the inch card? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The ensembles certainly throw up the red flag. Looks like GFS says all or nothing for DC, with 3/11 members showing a good storm. I guess we are going to have to wait a while for model consensus just like last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The track on the Euro and GGEM is pretty classic. If that verifies we won't get shut out. We might just miss on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dang Ender...did you just play the inch card? Well keep it all in perspective, here are HPC's thoughts in a nutshell: ...CHRISTMAS WEEKEND NOREASTER STILL ON TRACK... Those guys are far more experienced, talented, and intelligent than I am and this is clearly a situation where "argument from authority" is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The track on the Euro and GGEM is pretty classic. If that verifies we won't get shut out. We might just miss on the blizzard. Not to mention we'd get to record our second Miller-A in a >1C Nina (ever). Notwithstanding the prior one looks like it actually took place before 3.4 actually went above >1C. You're right, though, our best medium range deterministic model love this storm. It's loved a few others recently as well, and it's exhibited less than spectacular results along the east coast between 120hr and 168hr as of late. Even once at just 72hr out. Plus it'd appear that the OP model doesn't enjoy its children's support post 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ender, nice graphics, but isn't the storm slowing down there? Looks like a Boxing Day storm or beyond for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well keep it all in perspective, here are HPC's thoughts in a nutshell: ...CHRISTMAS WEEKEND NOREASTER STILL ON TRACK... Those guys are far more experienced, talented, and intelligent than I am and this is clearly a situation where "argument from authority" is valid. Im just messin dude....certainly looking at the 6z gfs run this morning and it showing snow here but none up North was amusing. Seems to me there are a few red flags still out there for people to at least take a breath but as we know that won't happen. So on your inch call would that be more to the east and less to the west or just a general inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The expanse of the snow field may be wider than that worst case scenario. This places I-95 in the banding... especially if this bombs out. I'm not completely sold on digging into the Gulf, but if it does, then we get negative tilt and stalling for sure = lights out! I play the middle road- which appears to put the 101 year old XMas snow record for Baltimore in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 SREFs and NAM seem to be indicating that the GFS is wrong. Essentially they show much more energy associated with the southern shortwave and a slower evolution than the GFS. Based on the record shattering rains in the southwest, I'd have to lean to a much more powerful shortwave than what the GFS is displaying. So I would take a 00Z GGEM EURO compromise at this point, which would be pretty good for the mid-atlantic, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The expanse of the snow field may be wider than that worst case scenario. This places I-95 in the banding... especially if this bombs out. I'm not completely sold on digging into the Gulf, but if it does, then we get negative tilt and stalling for sure = lights out! I play the middle road- which appears to put the 101 year old XMas snow record for Baltimore in jeopardy. *Also- don't ignore the cold air with this storm. The GFS-MOS is not doing it justice. I see XMas day struggle to stay near 30, and higher snow ratios... highs in the 20s behind the storm for Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ender, at this time last week, the GFS had given us a HECS for this past weekend with 8 of the members agreeing with it. What the GFS shows now probably isnt reflective of what will happen this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ender, at this time last week, the GFS had given us a HECS for this past weekend with 8 of the members agreeing with it. What the GFS shows now probably isnt reflective of what will happen this weekend although past performance of a model in a particular winter can, imho, be an indicator of future performance unlike stock funds, none of the models has really stepped ahead of any of the others so far this year maybe we'll have some direction on this matter after this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ender, at this time last week, the GFS had given us a HECS for this past weekend with 8 of the members agreeing with it. What the GFS shows now probably isnt reflective of what will happen this weekend I did mention that I think the GFS is too far north. As for the ECOP, vs EMEM, vs GEFS, vs UKMET, it's all about that ridge out west and timing/speed. If the ECOP's slower solution is correct then, sure, the much more intense, western track makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 SREFs and NAM seem to be indicating that the GFS is wrong. Essentially they show much more energy associated with the southern shortwave and a slower evolution than the GFS. Based on the record shattering rains in the southwest, I'd have to lean to a much more powerful shortwave than what the GFS is displaying. So I would take a 00Z GGEM EURO compromise at this point, which would be pretty good for the mid-atlantic, IMHO. The 6Z NAM, at 84hr (UGH!), does have a slower, and somewhat further south, and definitely stronger shortwave than does the GFS at the same time. It does not, however, have the the closed sub 560 H5 mega-vort that the EC has at over 360mi SW. Another way of looking at that is, the NAM's vort is tracking 225mi north of the ECs and it's almost 300mi "faster". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 6Z NAM, at 84hr (UGH!), does have a slower, and somewhat further south, and definitely stronger shortwave than does the GFS at the same time. It does not, however, have the the closed sub 560 H5 mega-vort that the EC has at over 360mi SW. Another way of looking at that is, the NAM's vort is tracking 225mi north of the ECs and it's almost 300mi "faster". Well....our area will probably do best if we get good overrunning...if no overrunning then we up chits creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 6Z NAM, at 84hr (UGH!), does have a slower, and somewhat further south, and definitely stronger shortwave than does the GFS at the same time. It does not, however, have the the closed sub 560 H5 mega-vort that the EC has at over 360mi SW. Another way of looking at that is, the NAM's vort is tracking 225mi north of the ECs and it's almost 300mi "faster". Well I'm pretty sure the closed bowling ball on the Euro is probably an extreme in the other direction. But I could see how the Euro is too far south and GFS too far north, and there's a compromise in teh middle more like the CMC or some other middle ground solution, but I'm leaning toward the south with this storm as that huge storm over north atlantic is going to make it much more difficult for this thing to be as far north as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well....our area will probably do best if we get good overrunning...if no overrunning then we up chits creek Leesburg is killing us right now...even the best solution has us fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Leesburg is killing us right now...even the best solution has us fringed. Patience grasshopper....you just moved here. You already felt the fringe force once with that clipper last week.... anyway who knows...I'm bouncing back and forth between being ok with 3-6" while others get a foot plus vs. wanting the whole thing to all of the sudden say ooops....nevermind and screw everyone. I'll let you know where I stand after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Patience grasshopper....you just moved here. You already felt the fringe force once with that clipper last week.... anyway who knows...I'm bouncing back and forth between being ok with 3-6" while others get a foot plus vs. wanting the whole thing to all of the sudden say ooops....nevermind and screw everyone. I'll let you know where I stand after 12z. im okay with 3-6 as long as i shut my computer off when the storm is over and not look at other people getting 12-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Somehow I don't think moisture is going to be a problem with this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Somehow I don't think moisture is going to be a problem with this one: Stunning isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Watching the 12Z WRF come in through 60HR. It starts with a deeper CA shortwave, then loses moisture east of Denver. Before this and the GFS completes the morning package...remember that it was the 12Z yesterday that was the only run to diminish the storm. I suspect that there is some missing data from the 12Z soundings out west. Any thoughts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Somehow I don't think moisture is going to be a problem with this one: WOW, that thing is loaded! that is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Through 72 Hrs... the SW shortwave looks stronger, slower, and deeper. HMMMMMM I can only imagine what the GFS might show for XMas- but I 'don't' think it's going to push this off the coast like Mon 12Z run did. Watching the 12Z WRF come in through 60HR. It starts with a deeper CA shortwave, then loses moisture east of Denver. Before this and the GFS completes the morning package...remember that it was the 12Z yesterday that was the only run to diminish the storm. I suspect that there is some missing data from the 12Z soundings out west. Any thoughts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Watching the 12Z WRF come in through 60HR. It starts with a deeper CA shortwave, then loses moisture east of Denver. Before this and the GFS completes the morning package...remember that it was the 12Z yesterday that was the only run to diminish the storm. I suspect that there is some missing data from the 12Z soundings out west. Any thoughts??? It's nothing like the 6Z. It's going to end-up very much like the 0Z EC...but even slower. About 6hr slower, and perhaps 75mi or so further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Through 72 Hrs... the SW shortwave looks stronger, slower, and deeper. HMMMMMM I can only imagine what the GFS might show for XMas- but I 'don't' think it's going to push this off the coast like Mon 12Z run did. What does this mean to us "non-mets?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It means everything is trending toward the EURO solution which is a high potential event for most spots in the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It means everything is trending toward the EURO solution which is a high potential event for most spots in the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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