kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 87 SREFs have a pretty impressive banana High in place. Typically, that means a more southern solution. I could honestly see this becoming a miller a from gulf of mexico through florida panhandle and bombing up the coast near the SC/NC boarder. It will be interesting to watch this evolve, but the GGEM is hinting at a trend toward that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i just hate how we just accept 3-5 and say great storm. We have shown that this area is capable of major snowstorms. We arent Richmond or Raleigh. We can get legit storms No Ji, because the snowstorm of 1920 that dumped nearly 22" on RIC was not a legit storm. Neither was January 1922 with 19". Or how about 1983 with 18"? Probably not legit either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No Ji, because the snowstorm of 1920 that dumped nearly 22" on RIC was not a legit storm. Neither was January 1922 with 19". Or how about 1983 with 18"? Probably not legit either. lol.......he's even worse than the New England guys when it comes to being cocky. And to further prove your point, Raleigh got 21" on 1/25/2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol.......he's even worse than the New England guys when it comes to being cocky. And to further prove your point, Raleigh got 21" on 1/25/2000. My location (Midlothian) recorded 18"+ from Jan. 96 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My location (Midlothian) recorded 18"+ from Jan. 96 as well. You know I think a 1996 storm track is still on the table here with that banana high in place like it is and the 50/50 low forcing the storm track south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You know I think a 1996 storm track is still on the table here with that banana high in place like it is and the 50/50 low forcing the storm track south. I've heard multiple mets refer to a 1996 storm track. I'm not getting my hopes up at all, but I certainly do love to hear about that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 euro says blizzard for dc according the philly thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've heard multiple mets refer to a 1996 storm track. I'm not getting my hopes up at all, but I certainly do love to hear about that storm. Euro just gave you a january 1996 repeat ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a nice 6 -10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a nice 6 -10? So I hear, but sounds like it cuts of very quickly as you go west and NW. Might be just a 4-6 here in Frederick. Just doesn't seem fathomable to have a storm with a 985 low just south of OC and not get a more significant event, but it is what it is. I'll take my snow and be mostly happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a nice 6 -10? Yeah verbatim euro 6-10, but very close to the 10-20. With a miller A like that QPF will be tough to figure until 48 hours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it seems all the models have the sharp cutoff to the west which doesnt quite make sense which such a strong low so i think areas of central maryland should get quite a bit if the euro were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro is a nice 6 -10? I'll be in McLean for this one. I think it's good the track is still SE of everyone--even as depicted I'd be jubilant, but give it another few days and the axis of heaviest snows will shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 All I can say is that's an HECS storm track for everybody from the south to northeast. That strong High diving toward Texas is reminiscent of 1996. Same time of year and also a nina year. I'd throw the QPF in the trash at this point and compare storm totals for past storms that have taken such a track and intensity. Now I'm just hoping we can verify something even close to what the Euro is showing. Ukie shows how a little jog east could keep everybody high and dry. Funny how this transformed from miller b to a solid miller A this evening. We probably have a lot of shifts to come yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 One more day until I start getting interested in the actual track, though it hasn't shifted much in the past few days. Nice to see that consistency. Not sure why the QPF keeps getting mentioned after every run... Anyone got anything in the "The Euro is a full 18 hours later than the GFS" department? That is probably the bigger issue, especially considering it's either on or just after Christmas, which could make or break travel for millions of people (including myself!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro just gave you a january 1996 repeat ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm hoping this one comes north quite a bit. I don't want to have to stay here in Alexandria and skip Christmas at my parents' place near Allentown. But I'm surely not going to voluntarily drive away from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 euro is a huge hit for most of va 6-10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If tonight's Euro runs end up verifying - What a Christmas Present for many in VA. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gettin pretty stoked on this one. I could care less what the models show for QPF at this stage. Low track is looking really good right now. I'd much rather be worried about how much snow instead of will it snow at all and if it does, will it be snow. The Euro's shift toward a Miller A is really encouraging. The MA loves a Miller A! Temps at the surface and aloft aren't an issue + the dryslot odds decrease. What % of the board will be staring at radar loops all night on the 24th? Can't wait to see the QPF maps on the 23rd. High impact event for the entire EC looking more promising every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Problem is this storm has lost it's Christmas luster. Dec26-27 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Problem is this storm has lost it's Christmas luster. Dec26-27 storm Even the Euro, the slowest model, has snow in here by 0z Christmas. I cant imagine it not making it to DC before midnight x-mas day. At the very worst case its 25-26th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Problem is this storm has lost it's Christmas luster. Dec26-27 storm If the SREF's were right, you would have snow by very late on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Merry Eclipse-mas to all! I went with a 75% chance of Christmas Snow on TV this morning. For all of you who bailed on yesterday's 12Z.... note that you need at least two runs in a row before jumping ship on something that has had such persistence this far away. The moisture- too early. You will also see that waver, and QPF outputs for Sat seen now can not fully account for what will be available with the storm. Just focus on the New England system creating the block in the first place. Christmas day will either have a stalled or crawling system up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I LIKE THE WAY YOU THINK.! Merry Eclipse-mas to all! I went with a 75% chance of Christmas Snow on TV this morning. For all of you who bailed on yesterday's 12Z.... note that you need at least two runs in a row before jumping ship on something that has had such persistence this far away. The moisture- too early. You will also see that waver, and QPF outputs for Sat seen now can not fully account for what will be available with the storm. Just focus on the New England system creating the block in the first place. Christmas day will either have a stalled or crawling system up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Problem is this storm has lost it's Christmas luster. Dec26-27 storm you clearly suffer from dendritic narcissism, the only cure being renting a room from Benchmark 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow. 75 % at this range. Impressive atorm coming together. I hope ur right. Thanks for all your input btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At what point in time is it safe to be really confidant it will snow and start and prediciting amounts? Is it Wed night? Is it Thursday? Is it Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just for the sake of argument.... Our "second best" medium range model shows this for 120hr: We've seen that ridge axis orientation in the west before, and we should all know where that mid GOM low heads next... Then we have the EC and the ECEM: That's really not all that bad...Really the ECEM is just about 8 to maybe 12hr faster than the ECOP at 120HR. By that I mean 12hr later the ECOP passes right over the ECEM's SC low. So, cool, it's just a bit slower (or faster). No big deal, but....then we have this "consistency" to look forward to: Sure, it's an ensemble and that's naturally going to dampen out any extremes...but this is the same, beloved EC that's attempted to bomb out three weekend storms this season, all right in the same relative spot. On each occasion the explosive cyclogenesis ended up being further out to sea, over Gulf stream rather than on the western edge of same, and a bit further north than the ECOP originally thought. ...and, if anyone cares, same problem with the GFS and GEFS: ...and the argument that, "there's just a lot of spread...don't trust the mean...". Well, here are the members, and only a couple like the "Winter Wonderland" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At what point in time is it safe to be really confidant it will snow and start and predicting amounts? Is it Wed night? Is it Thursday? Is it Friday? (fixed your spelling for 'ya...) I'm confident that it'll snow. I'm not so confident that it'll be more than an inch, though (especially not up where you are). I'm more than 50% confident that this system is going to be too far south and east..then east and north, to have a huge impact on NVA and MD west of Balt...I think the 0Z EC has little more than a "snowball's chance in Hell" of verifying. I think the 6Z GFS is our best shot scenario...but, unfortunately, I think it's probably a bit too far north. I'm a pessimist, however, at least as far as things that I can't control. I'm an optimist when it comes to things I'm responsible for...but I've yet to find a way to manage the weather. To answer your question, I think the "writing will be on the wall" as they say by 12Z Thursday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were as early as 0Z tonight that certainty starts to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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