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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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Fellow Weather Geeks: Don't sweat the small stuff this early. If you must then pick out the fine tuned subtleties in the models such as the stronger blocking and slightly stronger CA shortwave for 18Z Wed from this18Z compared to the 12Z GFS.... That is why this storm looks like it is back on for the east. Don't worry about every single model. We just saw this last week with the GFS. The overall pattern is what you need to focus on. Stay the course and only worry if two main runs in a row differ greatly. Stay the course and have faith in the flakes!

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Fellow Weather Geeks: Don't sweat the small stuff this early. If you must then pick out the fine tuned subtleties in the models such as the stronger blocking and slightly stronger CA shortwave for 18Z Wed from this18Z compared to the 12Z GFS.... That is why this storm looks like it is back on for the east. Don't worry about every single model. We just saw this last week with the GFS. The overall pattern is what you need to focus on. Stay the course and only worry if two main runs in a row differ greatly. Stay the course and have faith in the flakes!

just don't go to Glen Burnie and say that,OK?

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Imagine if you will a stream flowing along from west to east. It's a very smoothly flowing stream as the culvert it's in is one of those big wide concrete rivers they have in places like Las Vegas. Now imagine that there's side culverts that can dump into, or along side, the rushing river of rain water. Some jack--- dumps his 20 sewage tankers into one of those side culverts and the ensuing slurry rushes down to meet the swiftly flowing river of crisp clean rain water. The result is a beautiful tapestry of brown and clear, and at the area of greatest laminar flow gradient you get complex whirls and even deep vortexes in the water.

Well, it's not precisely like that as it has a lot more to do with the linking of jet exit regions, one to the northern and the other in a more southern stream of flow, with the result being a region that's particularly favored for surface low deeping via outstanding UL divergence.

+10000 EXCELLENT analogy And, I LOVE Las Vegas!!!!!

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Haven't been paying close attention to the news, but the man on the street is already expecting snow on Christmas. Several people said to me today, "I hear a storm is coming for Christmas." I couldn't find it in myself to go into detail about how everything is still less than conclusive on that front. Anyway, let's bring it home in the next 24 to 48 so I feel comfortable, saying, "yes, I believe one is."

(As an aside, the clerk at the Exxon station also believes snow is coming tomorrowyikes.png -- I guess from the Clipper?. I just nodded and said, "Oh really?"

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