Kmlwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If he's quiet it usually is not a good sign. Or he could be busy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If he's quiet it usually is not a good sign. Or he could be watching a replay of yesterday's Eagles game and thinking maybe we could get that lucky with this storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Could i ask who DT is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 DT was rather bullish on his website this morning...I'm wondering what his current thoughts are? just read his site. he is very bullish on the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Could i ask who DT is? no...next question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 DT=Dave Tolleris www.wxrisk.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 just read his site. he is very bullish on the threat. at 9am he was...thing is this event is still so far out there in time that we all know things will change...maybe for the better maybe not. I would imagine todays runs are a group of many possibilities with this thing so we just keep on watching. I am sure there is going to be plenty of joy and heartbreak for lots of us with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can you explain? The trend last night seemed to be pretty friendly I know...and I'm thankful for the brief moments of happiness the models have accorded me. However the following is troubling: The GFS has certainly backed off it's mega storm ideas of a few days ago. The GEFS is starting to show a more and more southerly track, especially for the closer in forecast hours for instance: This^ has become this Same idea 12hr later: Is now more like this... Since all models seem to want to take this thing NE rather than NNE up the coast we really need it to exit as far north as possible (not yesterday's 18Z GFS, though). An exit in central SC isn't going to help us enjoy much in the way of over running...and, unless we find a way for the resulting surface, and H8, low to head up through the piedmont, we're going to have a pretty tough time here. While last night's EC was in favor of a NC to NJ hugging system, that level of phasing appears to have been abandoned by the 12Z today. This is obviously not an encouraging trend, but, in making mattters worse it's still one of our most promising runs from today's 12Z. Having said that, we need to keep in mind that the EC hasn't exactly been spectacular this cold season along the SE and MIdAtl coast. Especially not between forecast hours 132 and 168...and that even excuses last week's one run disaster for forecast hour 72, which would have been yesterday's 6" at IAD. The GGEM and JMA...two models that simply treasure the opportunity to phase and explode...especially in the OV and SE or coastal plane up through NC and VA...both are consistently disinterestted in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think people can make a much stronger argument for this not being that big of a deal (except for the timing) than anything else at the moment. the seasonal trend as well as of course climo argues against it being a prolific snowmaker etc. i'd put all my eggs in the potential overrunning and hope things look better soon. the euro is probably still in an OK position for that part, as overrunning in my remembrance more often than not shifts north into gametime as opposed to the other way around. Thanks for the analysis. How are things looking for CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks for the analysis. How are things looking for CT? shouldnt you troll someone saying the same thing but who is going to be here for xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well the Euro seems to imply a low traversing the florida panhandle and coming up through the outer banks. Frankly a 995 MB low over the outer banks typically yields good results for this area. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel just yet. I thought miller B's typically don't make it down to the florida panhandle. A typical miller B is centered over Tennessee, or northwest Georgia, and jumps the mountains to the coast. I guess we are splitting hairs here. At the same time it should be noted that.... The OP EC had a 1004mb low centered very near the coastal border of SC/NC at 0Z on Sunday. It now has a 1008mb low over the central coast of GA. The 0Z OP had a sub 996mb low very barely east of ECG/ORF at 12Z on Sunday, that's been replaced by a 996mb low about, hm, 75mi? ESE of HAT. As the low 12Z low passes the latitude of ORF its a good 200mi further east than the previous run. Instead of a 988mb low just feet to the east of ACY at 18Z on Sunday the today's 12Z EC has 988mb low hundreds of miles to the east of Chincoteague. We tend to do best up here when the surface low travels along or inside the Outerbanks, not well, well, east thereof. The track as shown is going to feature an 850mb low that too far east of our latitude while the low's exiting SC and, sadly, being drawn in even more tightly to the east as the explosive developed happens, but just a bit too far east to be of benefit to us. At least IMO, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What exactly is "phasing"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What exactly is "phasing"? When the trough axes of the southern/pacific stream and the northern stream align into one trough axis, and both streams combine (phase) into one trough that swings around and south of the polar vortex. When the phase happens, the trough tends to go neg tilt and the sfc low bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Even with the most recent model runs, odds of at least some overrunning in the MA appear to be pretty good. It's going to be a juicy system moving across the country and will tap the gulf as it makes it's way across. Still a lot of time for just about any solution. As long as the front end overrunning stays, I'll be very happy. Sure a MECS+ on Xmas weekend would be a weenie dream but I have no problem at all with a 2-4" storm. Snow on Xmas around these parts is really rare so anything would be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What exactly is "phasing"? Try this link. http://greatlakes.sa...singStorms.html I like to use this site to compare upper level features to the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What exactly is "phasing"? When the trough axes of the southern/pacific stream and the northern stream align into one trough axis, and both streams combine (phase) into one trough that swings around and south of the polar vortex. When the phase happens, the trough tends to go neg tilt and the sfc low bombs. In layman's terms: 2 areas of energy (shortwaves) come together and form one combined area of energy. What Terpeast means when he says the trough "goes negative tilt" is that the axis of the storm will run from the Northwest to the southeast versus a progressive tilt of Northeast to southeast or neutral tilt north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am upset by the trends, not that the models show a miss right now. I wanted to see the storm trend south not east. The problem is the models are morphing this storm into a northenr branch dependent storm again. Much less WAA snows initially and much more a storm dependent on a phase. In a nina patter that is a bad proposition for our area. However, I am not as down on this as the last storm because there is some pacific jet energy this time and it is coming across west to east...if that is a little further north then the models are showing it could facilitate a phase faster then what the 12z models indicate. That is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks Ender...hopefully 0z will show some other trends that are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks Ender...hopefully 0z will show some other trends that are in our favor. I am 100% confident that the 0z GFS will show something completely different...doesn't mean it will be good for us either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks Ender...hopefully 0z will show some other trends that are in our favor. Don't get me wrong, I'm desperate for a decent storm. I'd be willing to sacrifice by 88yo grandmother for at least 4" on Christmas. Well, she's not actually doing all that well, so I guess I should sweeten the deal. I could throw in my little brother, and his dog that keeps crapping all over my house...and my dad...I've been tired of his sarcasm for decades now. (No, I wouldn't really sacrifice all that just for a 4" snowstorm. I love my grandma way too much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Don't get me wrong, I'm desperate for a decent storm. I'd be willing to sacrifice by 88yo grandmother for at least 4" on Christmas. Well, she's not actually doing all that well, so I guess I should sweeten the deal. I could throw in my little brother, and his dog that keeps crapping all over my house...and my dad...I've been tired of his sarcasm for decades now. (No, I wouldn't really sacrifice all that just for a 4" snowstorm. I love my grandma way too much) Wow i wish i was in your family, it sounds amazing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What exactly is "phasing"? Imagine if you will a stream flowing along from west to east. It's a very smoothly flowing stream as the culvert it's in is one of those big wide concrete rivers they have in places like Las Vegas. Now imagine that there's side culverts that can dump into, or along side, the rushing river of rain water. Some jack--- dumps his 20 sewage tankers into one of those side culverts and the ensuing slurry rushes down to meet the swiftly flowing river of crisp clean rain water. The result is a beautiful tapestry of brown and clear, and at the area of greatest laminar flow gradient you get complex whirls and even deep vortexes in the water. Well, it's not precisely like that as it has a lot more to do with the linking of jet exit regions, one to the northern and the other in a more southern stream of flow, with the result being a region that's particularly favored for surface low deeping via outstanding UL divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Don't get me wrong, I'm desperate for a decent storm. I'd be willing to sacrifice by 88yo grandmother for at least 4" on Christmas. Well, she's not actually doing all that well, so I guess I should sweeten the deal. I could throw in my little brother, and his dog that keeps crapping all over my house...and my dad...I've been tired of his sarcasm for decades now. (No, I wouldn't really sacrifice all that just for a 4" snowstorm. I love my grandma way too much) Imagine if you will a stream flowing along from west to east. It's a very smoothly flowing stream as the culvert it's in is one of those big wide concrete rivers they have in places like Las Vegas. Now imagine that there's side culverts that can dump into, or along side, the rushing river of rain water. Some jack--- dumps his 20 sewage tankers into one of those side culverts and the ensuing slurry rushes down to meet the swiftly flowing river of crisp clean rain water. The result is a beautiful tapestry of brown and clear, and at the area of greatest laminar flow gradient you get complex whirls and even deep vortexes in the water. Well, it's not precisely like that as it has a lot more to do with the linking of jet exit regions, one to the northern and the other in a more southern stream of flow, with the result being a region that's particularly favored for surface low deeping via outstanding UL divergence. good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Imagine if you will a stream flowing along from west to east. It's a very smoothly flowing stream as the culvert it's in is one of those big wide concrete rivers they have in places like Las Vegas. Now imagine that there's side culverts that can dump into, or along side, the rushing river of rain water. Some jack--- dumps his 20 sewage tankers into one of those side culverts and the ensuing slurry rushes down to meet the swiftly flowing river of crisp clean rain water. The result is a beautiful tapestry of brown and clear, and at the area of greatest laminar flow gradient you get complex whirls and even deep vortexes in the water. Well, it's not precisely like that as it has a lot more to do with the linking of jet exit regions, one to the northern and the other in a more southern stream of flow, with the result being a region that's particularly favored for surface low deeping via outstanding UL divergence. Awesome analogy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ...and just one last to the "trend is not my friend" theme. Our, evidently, second best medium range model seems to think the western ridge is going to be a bit less amplified, 100's of meters, than what the EC OP shows: UKMET ^ EC ^ Not to mention the ridge axis is a tad bit further E than I believe the "ideal" position to be for a DC snowstorm. Wes would have to validate that for me, but if I'm right then that favors the more E rather than NNE tracks. It'd certainly favor a track further off the coast that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW 12z EURO ensemble mean does look better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapsCupCrazy2011 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW 12z EURO ensemble mean does look better for us Am I reading this right? Low pressure manufacturers its own cold air, with no blocking High to the north, and significantly lowers the heights to make it snow? At a minimum, we are missing at least one key element to a good snow storm in the mid-atlantic. Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Am I reading this right? Low pressure manufacturers its own cold air, with no blocking High to the north, and significantly lowers the heights to make it snow? At a minimum, we are missing at least one key element to a good snow storm in the mid-atlantic. Ian You're reading at least part of it incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z run of the DGEX looks good! 988 off Delmarva and 978 off AC. Showing 12"+ from DC. Balt and up I95! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgexp72156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not that bad for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.