clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, I'll admit it is a bit concerning...but the fact that it's 5 days away and the fact that the models haven't exactly been consistent (take the 18z GFS rainstorm and the Euro/CMC MECS, for example) is keeping me sane for now. I'll take 3-6"...that's what my expectations have been, a moderate event. The MECS solutions are nice to look at, but we all knew deep down that the odds of such a Scranton aren't great when you are so far away. Yeah but the models have backed away from a 3-6 over-run solution. No moisture is tapped from the Gulf. The storm goes out to sea in the Carolina's, bombs and crushes NE. Typical Nina Miller B garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well said! Hi! HI!....Its Xmas time, wheres all the happy cheer and optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HI!....Its Xmas time, wheres all the happy cheer and optimism? OTS or in SNE where the Euro took their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just to point out, this situation is very delicate...One little change in setup and the outcome is totally different, thats why your seeing these drastic changes from run to run on QPF...not important yet..Get me inside 100 hours still. At any rate, I understand the frustration...Honeslty I would of rather this stayed a moderate overrunning event per the models a couple days ago...Phasing lows complicate crap, instead of a snow no matter what its turned into a big hit or bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not quite. I'm just saying that I was reserving my optimism before and I continue to do so. And, this model run is exactly why. Call it a DC flip-flop or pansy or weenie, or whatever you want, but the pattern so far this winter has been for threats to get lessened rather than intensified as the event gets closer. Last winter, it was essentially the reverse. Fair enough - but keep in mind that it's one run, 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify Any met who is calling for actual numbers at this point is a loony (though I just checked the Baltimore stations and none have over a 50% pop.) I think it is important to inform the public about the potential because of the date, consistency of the models (for at least something) and the travel that will be happening around that time frame. Not to mention the good press it gets for the stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify Is the Clipper for tomorrow totally DEAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify Geesh you are so loony! I like 70%, Sandra Shaw had 50% this morning on her newcast (I flip between the two). Something will fall, lots of time to figure out exactly what and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pansy ass mofos in this region. One set of runs and yall are ready to bail. You all make me ashamed. No soup for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We need a Model Waffler tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 on to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We need a Model Waffler tag. YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 on to 18Z Indeed, but the trend is clearly not our friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Indeed, but the trend is clearly not our friend... What "trend?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Indeed, but the trend is clearly not our friend... Can you explain? The trend last night seemed to be pretty friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Seasonal trend is what Ender may be refering to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i think people can make a much stronger argument for this not being that big of a deal (except for the timing) than anything else at the moment. the seasonal trend as well as of course climo argues against it being a prolific snowmaker etc. i'd put all my eggs in the potential overrunning and hope things look better soon. the euro is probably still in an OK position for that part, as overrunning in my remembrance more often than not shifts north into gametime as opposed to the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. Seems like a good discussion for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Weather.....it's not for those with a weak heart.....today is one of those classic model worship up and down days. Regardless of what happens I have always gotten a kick out of the fact that it is way easier to accept a lousy solution and also be very skeptical of a good one. Today is no different as not many thought last nights euro was right but just about everyone is buying todays euro. Eh it is what it is...I'm glad I have all of my Christmas shopping done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah but the models have backed away from a 3-6 over-run solution. No moisture is tapped from the Gulf. The storm goes out to sea in the Carolina's, bombs and crushes NE. Typical Nina Miller B garbage. Pretty sure this has evolved into a miller A and can no longer be considered Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Weather.....it's not for those with a weak heart.....today is one of those classic model worship up and down days. Regardless of what happens I have always gotten a kick out of the fact that it is way easier to accept a lousy solution and also be very skeptical of a good one. Today is no different as not many thought last nights euro was right but just about everyone is buying todays euro. Eh it is what it is...I'm glad I have all of my Christmas shopping done. Well said sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pretty sure this has evolved into a miller A and can no longer be considered Miller B. think it's still more a miller b/or will be. you're looking at a center jump most likely etc. the first low traverses the southern u.s. going east then redevelopment goes northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 new SREF's look good...no where near as delayed as MR models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 think it's still more a miller b/or will be. you're looking at a center jump most likely etc. the first low traverses the southern u.s. going east then redevelopment goes northeast. Well the Euro seems to imply a low traversing the florida panhandle and coming up through the outer banks. Frankly a 995 MB low over the outer banks typically yields good results for this area. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel just yet. I thought miller B's typically don't make it down to the florida panhandle. A typical miller B is centered over Tennessee, or northwest Georgia, and jumps the mountains to the coast. I guess we are splitting hairs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If its helpful, here is a Link someone from here shared with me on Miller A and B storms. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 new SREF's look good...no where near as delayed as MR models looks great for my area (i know wrong thread) . much farther north and east then other models (seems to me). this could be better for you in the midatlantic on to the 18z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 DT was rather bullish on his website this morning...I'm wondering what his current thoughts are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well the Euro seems to imply a low traversing the florida panhandle and coming up through the outer banks. Frankly a 995 MB low over the outer banks typically yields good results for this area. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel just yet. I thought miller B's typically don't make it down to the florida panhandle. A typical miller B is centered over Tennessee, or northwest Georgia, and jumps the mountains to the coast. I guess we are splitting hairs here. well it's generally more of a classic overrunning situation initially. i guess the question is the eventual formation of the noreaster in the area of the nc coastline and then whatever happens after. to me that part is miller b, heavily northern stream dominated etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 DT was rather bullish on his website this morning...I'm wondering what his current thoughts are? If he's quiet it usually is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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