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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I'll admit it is a bit concerning...but the fact that it's 5 days away and the fact that the models haven't exactly been consistent (take the 18z GFS rainstorm and the Euro/CMC MECS, for example) is keeping me sane for now.

I'll take 3-6"...that's what my expectations have been, a moderate event. The MECS solutions are nice to look at, but we all knew deep down that the odds of such a Scranton aren't great when you are so far away.

Yeah but the models have backed away from a 3-6 over-run solution. No moisture is tapped from the Gulf. The storm goes out to sea in the Carolina's, bombs and crushes NE. Typical Nina Miller B garbage.

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Just to point out, this situation is very delicate...One little change in setup and the outcome is totally different, thats why your seeing these drastic changes from run to run on QPF...not important yet..Get me inside 100 hours still. At any rate, I understand the frustration...Honeslty I would of rather this stayed a moderate overrunning event per the models a couple days ago...Phasing lows complicate crap, instead of a snow no matter what its turned into a big hit or bust...

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Not quite. I'm just saying that I was reserving my optimism before and I continue to do so. And, this model run is exactly why. Call it a DC flip-flop or pansy or weenie, or whatever you want, but the pattern so far this winter has been for threats to get lessened rather than intensified as the event gets closer. Last winter, it was essentially the reverse.

Fair enough - but keep in mind that it's one run, 5 days out.

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JustinBerk

JustinBerk

Posted
Posted

I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify

Any met who is calling for actual numbers at this point is a loony (though I just checked the Baltimore stations and none have over a 50% pop.) I think it is important to inform the public about the potential because of the date, consistency of the models (for at least something) and the travel that will be happening around that time frame. Not to mention the good press it gets for the stations.

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weathergeek

weathergeek

Posted
Posted

I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify

Is the Clipper for tomorrow totally DEAD?

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

I went 70% on Baltimore TV this morning... that was for anything. While it was bold and perhaps a bit early... I wanted to play that holiday card up. Did you skip Channel 2 in your search? Don't forget us... and don't give up with this 12Z run.... I still see the GFS wrapping up while precip is too early to certify

Geesh you are so loony! :P

I like 70%, Sandra Shaw had 50% this morning on her newcast (I flip between the two). Something will fall, lots of time to figure out exactly what and how much.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

i think people can make a much stronger argument for this not being that big of a deal (except for the timing) than anything else at the moment. the seasonal trend as well as of course climo argues against it being a prolific snowmaker etc. i'd put all my eggs in the potential overrunning and hope things look better soon. the euro is probably still in an OK position for that part, as overrunning in my remembrance more often than not shifts north into gametime as opposed to the other way around.

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ThePhotoGuy

ThePhotoGuy

Posted
Posted

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LATEST GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE

REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL

OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE

LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING

THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE

COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD

DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO

THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LATEST GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE

REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL

OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE

LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING

THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE

COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD

DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO

THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

Seems like a good discussion for now.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted

Weather.....it's not for those with a weak heart.....today is one of those classic model worship up and down days. Regardless of what happens I have always gotten a kick out of the fact that it is way easier to accept a lousy solution and also be very skeptical of a good one. Today is no different as not many thought last nights euro was right but just about everyone is buying todays euro. Eh it is what it is...I'm glad I have all of my Christmas shopping done.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

Yeah but the models have backed away from a 3-6 over-run solution. No moisture is tapped from the Gulf. The storm goes out to sea in the Carolina's, bombs and crushes NE. Typical Nina Miller B garbage.

Pretty sure this has evolved into a miller A and can no longer be considered Miller B.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Weather.....it's not for those with a weak heart.....today is one of those classic model worship up and down days. Regardless of what happens I have always gotten a kick out of the fact that it is way easier to accept a lousy solution and also be very skeptical of a good one. Today is no different as not many thought last nights euro was right but just about everyone is buying todays euro. Eh it is what it is...I'm glad I have all of my Christmas shopping done.

Well said sir. :thumbsup:

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Pretty sure this has evolved into a miller A and can no longer be considered Miller B.

think it's still more a miller b/or will be. you're looking at a center jump most likely etc. the first low traverses the southern u.s. going east then redevelopment goes northeast.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

think it's still more a miller b/or will be. you're looking at a center jump most likely etc. the first low traverses the southern u.s. going east then redevelopment goes northeast.

Well the Euro seems to imply a low traversing the florida panhandle and coming up through the outer banks. Frankly a 995 MB low over the outer banks typically yields good results for this area. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel just yet. I thought miller B's typically don't make it down to the florida panhandle. A typical miller B is centered over Tennessee, or northwest Georgia, and jumps the mountains to the coast. I guess we are splitting hairs here.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Well the Euro seems to imply a low traversing the florida panhandle and coming up through the outer banks. Frankly a 995 MB low over the outer banks typically yields good results for this area. I don't think it's time to throw in the towel just yet. I thought miller B's typically don't make it down to the florida panhandle. A typical miller B is centered over Tennessee, or northwest Georgia, and jumps the mountains to the coast. I guess we are splitting hairs here.

well it's generally more of a classic overrunning situation initially. i guess the question is the eventual formation of the noreaster in the area of the nc coastline and then whatever happens after. to me that part is miller b, heavily northern stream dominated etc.

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