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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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All of the models have suddenly come into agreement that we get screwed and the storm bombs just in time to bury SNE a few days after Christmas. Looks like we are back to the typical winter pattern.

for us to get snow, we need the bullseye 5 days out to be richmond or Raleigh

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I don't get the panic (...ok, I sort of do ;-) ). The euro shows a MECS at 0z and now barely gives us .1", but we all buy this run? In all likelihood it will show something completely different tonight.

I know the Canadian also screws us, but it too looked really good last night, so it's a huge shift for just one run. I'm with Randy on this...no need to get all worked up yet since we are still 100+ hours away.

Of course we still probably will get screwed, ha, but I'm not stepping up to the ledge yet. :-)

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I don't get the panic (...ok, I sort of do ;-) ). The euro shows a MECS at 0z and now barely gives us .1", but we all buy this run? In all likelihood it will show something completely different tonight.

I know the Canadian also screws us, but it too looked really good last night, so it's a huge shift for just one run. I'm with Randy on this...no need to get all worked up yet since we are still 100+ hours away.

Of course we still probably will get screwed, ha, but I'm not stepping up to the ledge yet. :-)

We are screwed on basically all models right now. GFS gives us some light snow and that is it. Like it or not, models today have congealed around a storm that slides off the coast after hitting RIC, swings around, and bombs to hit SNE. That is basically a nightmare scenario for us. Still time to change and all that, but this would be karma after last winter.

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We are screwed on basically all models right now. GFS gives us some light snow and that is it. Like it or not, models today have congealed around a storm that slides off the coast after hitting RIC, swings around, and bombs to hit SNE. That is basically a nightmare scenario for us. Still time to change and all that, but this would be karma after last winter.

Yeah, I'll admit it is a bit concerning...but the fact that it's 5 days away and the fact that the models haven't exactly been consistent (take the 18z GFS rainstorm and the Euro/CMC MECS, for example) is keeping me sane for now.

I'll take 3-6"...that's what my expectations have been, a moderate event. The MECS solutions are nice to look at, but we all knew deep down that the odds of such a Scranton aren't great when you are so far away.

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you guys give up way too easy. At 0z, we'll be back in the show.

if we didn't just go through the OTS scenario 24 hours ago, I wouldn't be as negative

patterns hold and repeat, with only minor variations with each successive system

although, it is strange how the strong s/w, 2/10/10'ish bowling ball scenario is gone

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Yeah, I'm not playing that game this time. All the models need to show up ay my house Thursday 12Z with chocolates and a Chritstmas storm before I get on board.

Cool story! Talk to you next threat then, along with everyone else who has given up on this one already. No sense for you all to post here anymore since you have thrown in the towels.

Merry Christmas!

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We are screwed on basically all models right now. GFS gives us some light snow and that is it. Like it or not, models today have congealed around a storm that slides off the coast after hitting RIC, swings around, and bombs to hit SNE. That is basically a nightmare scenario for us. Still time to change and all that, but this would be karma after last winter.

and quite common in mod/strong NINA's, which is why we have cause for concern imho

oh well, its still gonna' be Christmas on Saturday and no computer model can take that away from us :)

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Some of you need to stick to your day jobs....The timing of the phase is not critical at this point being over 100 hours out..I see many of you saying, Ive seen this story, models show big storm then phase it too late...Well how about the other way around, we've seen plenty of times the models have a storm then lose it with 5-7 days to go then get it back...Im not saying we get this storm, but to say its over or on to the next one is ludicrious...better luck being more productive at work.

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Pansy ass mofos in this region.

One set of runs and yall are ready to bail. You all make me ashamed. No soup for you.

I haven't bailed, just reasonably concerned that the turn of events is 1) typical NINA climate, and 2) consistent with what just happened this weekend

I don't think acknowledging either is unreasonable

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Some of you need to stick to your day jobs....The timing of the phase is not critical at this point being over 100 hours out..I see many of you saying, Ive seen this story, models show big storm then phase it too late...Well how about the other way around, we've seen plenty of times the models have a storm then lose it with 5-7 days to go then get it back...Im not saying we get this storm, but to say its over or on to the next one is ludicrious...better luck being more productive at work.

Well said! Hi! :D

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Cool story! Talk to you next threat then, along with everyone else who has given up on this one already. No sense for you all to post here anymore since you have thrown in the towels.

Merry Christmas!

Not quite. I'm just saying that I was reserving my optimism before and I continue to do so. And, this model run is exactly why. Call it a DC flip-flop or pansy or weenie, or whatever you want, but the pattern so far this winter has been for threats to get lessened rather than intensified as the event gets closer. Last winter, it was essentially the reverse.

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