Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

[Ji]

<br />I looked at the Euro and just about fell out of my chair. Did the GFS have the right idea about a bomb?<br />

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Gonna be a long week

[dswx]

I went on TV this morning with a high chance for snow. I like to get the excitement stirring for Christmas- and know the potential bust in these parts... however here is what we have going for us:

#1 Model agreement. The waffling GFS has been pretty locked in for three days. The ECMWF is no n board with more of a Miller A type system tapping into the Gulf. But most important is the trend of closed Lows in New England/Eastern Canada. We can thank the storm that did miss us on Sunday for creating the block that will slow down the Christmas storm.

While I like the look of approaching the Baltimore record of 9.2"... there really isn't good support for liquid equivalent potential until 72 hours out. My professional call will be held back until Wednesday night. I highly recommend that. Once you put out a big number, you can't take it back. You can always build up though with more forgiveness from viewers.

Also remember that the Christmas snow in 2002 brought 5 inches to Towson but only 1 for BWI

Superb comment. People always latch onto the big numbers and should the forecast change, they will still say "What happened to the blizzard?!?". And unfortunately, people lump all meteorologists together so that if one meteorologist or company has a bust, the public thinks that all meteorologists did!

[North Balti Zen]

Given that I will be out of town for Christmas, you can lock this up. Personal timing ftl...

[mdsnowlover]

I went on TV this morning with a high chance for snow. I like to get the excitement stirring for Christmas- and know the potential bust in these parts... however here is what we have going for us:

#1 Model agreement. The waffling GFS has been pretty locked in for three days. The ECMWF is no n board with more of a Miller A type system tapping into the Gulf. But most important is the trend of closed Lows in New England/Eastern Canada. We can thank the storm that did miss us on Sunday for creating the block that will slow down the Christmas storm.

While I like the look of approaching the Baltimore record of 9.2"... there really isn't good support for liquid equivalent potential until 72 hours out. My professional call will be held back until Wednesday night. I highly recommend that. Once you put out a big number, you can't take it back. You can always build up though with more forgiveness from viewers.

Also remember that the Christmas snow in 2002 brought 5 inches to Towson but only 1 for BWI

I listened to the call for snow on sunday aftn, and thought it was gusty. from channel ll,. You work with tom tasselmeyer don't you?? I

[Guest someguy]

I looked at the Euro and just about fell out of my chair. Did the GFS have the right idea about a bomb?

well you could say that IF you give credit to having the BOMB is 200 miles too far to the North

[Midlo Snow Maker]

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Gonna be a long week

what was the euro mos output

[ThePhotoGuy]

I listened to the call for snow on sunday aftn, and thought it was gusty. from channel ll,. You work with tom tasselmeyer don't you?? I

He is a Met for ABC 2. Tom Tasselmeyer is on WBALTV 11.

[Guest someguy]

0Z EURO ENSEMBLES.....

MASSIVE HIT FOR WESTERN NC VA MD ... cape cod

north of PHilly Not so much

[aldie 22]

I'm holding steady for a nice 3-6 or 4-8" event..it's only Monday

[PhineasC]

I'm holding steady for a nice 3-6 or 4-8" event..it's only Monday

Good call. All the models agree you get that much. Question now is do we get the gravy on top.

[aldie 22]

Good call. All the models agree you get that much. Question now is do we get the gravy on top.

I like butter

[stormtracker]

I'm gonna be that guy.....we all know the Euro solution isn't going to happen..BUT the fact that it supports a storm is enough for me. Leesburg is on the right track here,..3 to 6 inches and we win.

[sauss06]

I'm gonna be that guy.....we all know the Euro solution isn't going to happen..BUT the fact that it supports a storm is enough for me. Leesburg is on the right track here,..3 to 6 inches and we win.

May i ask how much snow you guys got down there for the X-mas storm in 2002? I'm just curious..

[kurtstack]

I think it's time to crank up the bus again. It's been dormant since February, but there is enough model support for a SECS that I think it's at least a good idea to start warming up the engine.

[stormtracker]

May i ask how much snow you guys got down there for the X-mas storm in 2002? I'm just curious..

I was on the east side of the city..so I think I got about 2"...west side toward IAD got like 6?

[Kmlwx]

I like butter

Ghee.

[sauss06]

I was on the east side of the city..so I think I got about 2"...west side toward IAD got like 6?

Thank you sir!

[aldie 22]

I'm guessing Wes will ride the 18z GFS from last night and todays 6z GFS non event. :hug:

[Dr No]

I'm guessing Wes will ride the 18z GFS from last night and todays 6z GFS non event. :hug:

I was just thinking that he's been quiet this morning. I bet he's writing the CWG article and tuning up the bus!

[JustinBerk]

I used to work with Tom, John Collins, and Tony Pann at WBAL... but moved over to Channel 2 in Feb 2003. The trade off of crossing town, I had to sit out during the Superstorm- and actually just enjoy it :-)

I listened to the call for snow on sunday aftn, and thought it was gusty. from channel ll,. You work with tom tasselmeyer don't you?? I

[JustinBerk]

Thanks for the support. I know some just want a number, but this forum does hold a bit more depth.

Here is the post on the overnight models I made in this morning's blog.

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/white-christmas%3A-good-chance-for-the-first-snowy-christmas-since-2002

[RickinBaltimore]

Thanks for the support. I know some just want a number, but this forum does hold a bit more depth.

Here is the post on the overnight models I made in this morning's blog.

http://www.abc2news....tmas-since-2002

Justin, good stuff and I appreciate the reasons for holding off on a prediction this early.

[ravensrule]

Thanks for the support. I know some just want a number, but this forum does hold a bit more depth.

Here is the post on the overnight models I made in this morning's blog.

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/white-christmas%3A-good-chance-for-the-first-snowy-christmas-since-2002

I love the writeup, very easy to understand for weather novices. Also not making any call on accumulations this far out is very wise.

[kurtstack]

Nice write-up justin. This week it's even more important to get the word out early, as christmas travel could be a nightmare for many. Good to see a met go out there with some confidence 5 days out. Typically you see them wait for 48 hours before they even give the impression that something is coming.

[JustinBerk]

12Z GFS Quick call: Itcoming in a little slower and perhaps a little closer to the coast when it spins up. If you look at the models, don't get hung up on the 6 Hr precip panel this early. That has Baltimore on the edge, but not a good gauge- proving the models can't deal with the moisture content yet. The speed allows for the upper level energy to catch up and hold it a little closer on Christmas Day for potential bomb-o-genesis. Baltimore snow begins with Santa's arrival and lasts all day. The pressure gradient alone supports 50 mph winds along the coast. Sunday- Full on blizzard in New England with wrap around snow showers winding down in MD.

[Sparky]

It is amazing to me how much better the snow situation is here compared to locations just S and E. I grew up in Severna Park, and I never really understood how the difference between SP/Annapolis and Towson/Columbia and points N and W could be so extreme. But man...I just can't get over how many times I call my parents and hear that when they got 8", we got 12" up in Towson, etc etc. I mean, I understand the meteorology and the geography of it, but the major accumulation differences between locations so close to each other still surprise me.

yep, the gradient can sometimes be tight between the coastal plain where Annapolis is located and the slightly higher elevations at the fall line. The fall line splits Baltimore City in half basically. Another significant gradient is experiences about another 20-25 miles NW of the fall line, thru Carroll Co., N Balto Co. where elevations jump upward of 1000 feet. I live in Westminster now, I grew up in NE Balto. i can tell the difference in snowfall and colder temps.

[wxmeddler]

Any met who is calling for actual numbers at this point is a loony (though I just checked the Baltimore stations and none have over a 50% pop.) I think it is important to inform the public about the potential because of the date, consistency of the models (for at least something) and the travel that will be happening around that time frame. Not to mention the good press it gets for the stations.

[Kevin Druff]

It is amazing to me how much better the snow situation is here compared to locations just S and E. I grew up in Severna Park, and I never really understood how the difference between SP/Annapolis and Towson/Columbia and points N and W could be so extreme. But man...I just can't get over how many times I call my parents and hear that when they got 8", we got 12" up in Towson, etc etc. I mean, I understand the meteorology and the geography of it, but the major accumulation differences between locations so close to each other still surprise me.

It's a similar situation here in Richmond. I live on the west end of Henrico County and the airport is east of town. The airport is 165' of elevation, out here we're between 250' and 325' and 25 miles farther from the ocean. In the 3/09 and 12/19/09 storm, I measured significantly more (4-7") snow than the airport (or even locations around the airport which have better/higher measurements, though I didn't measure 7" more ... 3 or 4" more...)

[wxmeddler]

Just saw the 12z.... That ridge axis still is just a tiny bit too far east. One good rule of thumb that I use is that if the vorticity strip that acts as the "kicker" runs from Yellowstone to Cheyenne then were usually in a good position. Right now that strip at hr. 102 comes out over the Dakotas. Though I am still kind of shocked at the amplification of both sides here, you've got your 540 thickness line going from the Alberta/ NW Territories border to New Orleans at hr. 126 with the 500mb 570 dm line all the way into Pocatello, Idaho!

[snowfan]

Does HM ever really FORECAST? Seems to me like the guy is a hardcore model hugger....so much for having a skill set. Anyway, take a look at his snow map.