Nikolai Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 EURO and GFS now coming into agreement about the potential for something on Christmas... obviously not set in stone but if they're both agreeing on a threat, it's time to begin watching it. Plus, I'll be back in DC for Christmas. The 12z GFS--the players are on the field much earlier, but Christmas Eve is when the action gets going. By Christmas day, we have... a very MECS-y pattern aloft! From 174-192 DC gets 6-10" as well, and if this is the evolution coming, more could be expected. Does anyone have more specific data from the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why even mention snow totals 7 days out. It is kind of ridiculous, I would say. Look at what happened with this storm for SNE, it could happen here too. sure there is some guidance for a snow event here but I wouldnt be going out throwing totals around yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why even mention snow totals 7 days out. It is kind of ridiculous, I would say. Look at what happened with this storm for SNE, it could happen here too. sure there is some guidance for a snow event here but I wouldnt be going out throwing totals around yet I mentioned what the GFS shows, not what's to be expected... calm down... it's just a system to track. Glancing at the EURO posts from last night it sounds like the storm is weaker than the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think this system should be a bit easier to handle for the models, obviously Im not saying either is right at 192 hours out but I dont think youll see as much waffling with this one when we get within 100 hours....Its more of a west to east system, I dont think there will be as many factors as there was with this weekend storm, so lets watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One thing to pay attention to regarding this system is the Pac jet. Right now the pac jet is screaming and it's one of the main factors that killed Sunday's storm. If the jet slows down or buckles, the xmas system could be one to watch. It's possible that this system could speed up and be more of a 12/24 threat than 12/25-26, given the fast atmospheric flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 There seems to be some support for this system. However, the op is most aggressive with a well defined ridge in the West / Plains, and a low near 50/50. Most ensembles show a storm in that time frame, but the upper level features seem to be all over the place. The ridge is there in most members, but east of that is a bit murky - some are flatter than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the 0z euro had some support for something in that time frame, does not look very intense.. sort of a weak overrunning situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro says No SNOW for you on the 24-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro says No SNOW for you on the 24-25th Good. Edit: Don't we basically have two threads about the same subject. Fold one into the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro says No SNOW for you on the 24-25th fook the Euro, fook the GFS and all the rest they are really worthless this year outside of 2-3 days its a shame because watching threats from days out come to fruition is what makes this hobby so interesting, challenging and fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 fook the Euro, fook the GFS and all the rest they are really worthless this year outside of 2-3 days its a shame because watching threats from days out come to fruition is what makes this hobby so interesting, challenging and fun i don't know how challenging it is to look at a model output map (unless you're referring to your emotions), but definitely interesting and fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 after watching the latest debacle, I dont even see the xmas eve storm until maybe thursday and see if its still there on the models. Then I'll consider it as possible. Otherwise its just a pretty picture . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i don't know how challenging it is to look at a model output map (unless you're referring to your emotions), but definitely interesting and fun. I believe the challenging reference was to the forecasting aspect, not just looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It's a Christmas miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z euro says merry white christmas VA- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 all of MD/VA/WVA in the 0.25"-0.50" gets cold after xmas again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 all of MD/VA/WVA in the 0.25"-0.50" gets cold after xmas again December 2010 is going to turn out cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 December 2010 is going to turn out cold. histric top 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 coldest winter ever in the uk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 histric top 5? I have no idea. I just said cold. and that's all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 lol @ the euro if that happens something's really screwed with winter these days -- snow on xmas in dc, no snow where ill be in sne where it apparently doesnt snow anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The 12-24/25 threat will be quite the treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 histric top 5? IAD is currently at 30 for the month, which would put this December at #4 for coldest. I think we'll probably end up around 28-30, so top 5 should be a lock. Most mets in the main forum will likely disagree with me, but I've been saying that the cold will stay until at least early January since issuing my winter forecast. I think that while the -AO may break down very briefly after Christmas, we'll be back to a -NAO/AO shortly after (still cold, regardless), with the brief phase of +AO allowing the Siberian air to finally move over. I think we may see a major arctic outbreak within a few days of New Years (probably right after). We have still not had an arctic outbreak, and Ninas are known for them! That being said, regardless of way in the future, I'm really liking this Christmas threat. 0z EURO gives DC .5 QPF, would be a perfect Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 6z GFS: light snow begins by Christmas Eve! Consistency is key, and the GFS and EURO seems to be doing very well in holding this as a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 If the storm unfolded as the 6z depicts, I'd be very satisfied. Light/moderate snow all Christmas eve, through till Christmas evening, 4-8" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 last time it snowed on Christmas Day around here (2002), Christmas for the family was at our house guess where Christmas for the family is this year? book it folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 last time it snowed on Christmas Day around here (2002), Christmas for the family was at our house guess where Christmas for the family is this year? book it folks Nothing like having to paint the walls after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 lol @ the euro if that happens something's really screwed with winter these days -- snow on xmas in dc, no snow where ill be in sne where it apparently doesnt snow anymore You moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Nothing like having to paint the walls after New Years. nah, mainly my wife's family and she wasn't raised by wolves like I was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm more interested in this threat than the last. The pattern looks more like a typical one where we get snow. Tthe ridge to the west is stronger and even has some positive anomlaies associated with it. The block is in a good place to force the low south of us. The negative anomaly near KY/TN would be a little better if it were a tad more to the south but its still pretty good and there is pretty good agreement amongst the individual members that there will be a storm. It's a more viable threat the the dec 19th storm which just had too many moving parts and needed perfect phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.