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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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EURO and GFS now coming into agreement about the potential for something on Christmas... obviously not set in stone but if they're both agreeing on a threat, it's time to begin watching it. Plus, I'll be back in DC for Christmas. :snowman:

The 12z GFS--the players are on the field much earlier, but Christmas Eve is when the action gets going. By Christmas day, we have... a very MECS-y pattern aloft! From 174-192 DC gets 6-10" as well, and if this is the evolution coming, more could be expected.

Does anyone have more specific data from the EURO?

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Why even mention snow totals 7 days out. It is kind of ridiculous, I would say. Look at what happened with this storm for SNE, it could happen here too. sure there is some guidance for a snow event here but I wouldnt be going out throwing totals around yet

I mentioned what the GFS shows, not what's to be expected... calm down... it's just a system to track.

Glancing at the EURO posts from last night it sounds like the storm is weaker than the GFS?

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I think this system should be a bit easier to handle for the models, obviously Im not saying either is right at 192 hours out but I dont think youll see as much waffling with this one when we get within 100 hours....Its more of a west to east system, I dont think there will be as many factors as there was with this weekend storm, so lets watch and wait.

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One thing to pay attention to regarding this system is the Pac jet. Right now the pac jet is screaming and it's one of the main factors that killed Sunday's storm. If the jet slows down or buckles, the xmas system could be one to watch. It's possible that this system could speed up and be more of a 12/24 threat than 12/25-26, given the fast atmospheric flow.

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There seems to be some support for this system. However, the op is most aggressive with a well defined ridge in the West / Plains, and a low near 50/50. Most ensembles show a storm in that time frame, but the upper level features seem to be all over the place. The ridge is there in most members, but east of that is a bit murky - some are flatter than others.

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fook the Euro, fook the GFS and all the rest

they are really worthless this year outside of 2-3 days

its a shame because watching threats from days out come to fruition is what makes this hobby so interesting, challenging and fun

i don't know how challenging it is to look at a model output map (unless you're referring to your emotions), but definitely interesting and fun.

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histric top 5?

IAD is currently at 30 for the month, which would put this December at #4 for coldest. I think we'll probably end up around 28-30, so top 5 should be a lock.

Most mets in the main forum will likely disagree with me, but I've been saying that the cold will stay until at least early January since issuing my winter forecast. I think that while the -AO may break down very briefly after Christmas, we'll be back to a -NAO/AO shortly after (still cold, regardless), with the brief phase of +AO allowing the Siberian air to finally move over. I think we may see a major arctic outbreak within a few days of New Years (probably right after). We have still not had an arctic outbreak, and Ninas are known for them!

That being said, regardless of way in the future, I'm really liking this Christmas threat. 0z EURO gives DC .5 QPF, would be a perfect Christmas. :snowman:

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I'm more interested in this threat than the last. The pattern looks more like a typical one where we get snow. Tthe ridge to the west is stronger and even has some positive anomlaies associated with it. The block is in a good place to force the low south of us. The negative anomaly near KY/TN would be a little better if it were a tad more to the south but its still pretty good and there is pretty good agreement amongst the individual members that there will be a storm. It's a more viable threat the the dec 19th storm which just had too many moving parts and needed perfect phasing.

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