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July 2013 Pattern and Discussion


griteater

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DT Alert!: Wxrisk.com

about an hour ago

*** NOTIFICATION** if the current of Model data .. GFS ECMWF .. CMC and their respective ensembles are correct... No from NC VA Border north will

1) see max temps at or above 100 for the rest of the Summer/ year

and a very good chance no one North of the VA NC state line will see max tamp above 95 degrees.

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DT Alert!: Wxrisk.com

about an hour ago

*** NOTIFICATION** if the current of Model data .. GFS ECMWF .. CMC and their respective ensembles are correct... No from NC VA Border north will

1) see max temps at or above 100 for the rest of the Summer/ year

and a very good chance no one North of the VA NC state line will see max tamp above 95 degrees.

That would be nice!! But in the short time RAH is cooling down the forecast for the next few days. From this afternoons discussions:

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THU AND THU NIGHT: NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE

AMPLIFICATION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS

AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE

AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY

THU MORNING. SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD PLACE OUR REGION MORE SOLIDLY IN

RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...PARTICULARLY IF WEAK

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY H85 FLOW MATERIALIZES AND RIDES ATOP THE

SURFACE FRONT BELOW...YIELDING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE

PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE 12Z NAM/WRF AND 00Z ECMWF

INDICATE. SUCH A SOLUTION IS A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE REGIME...ALSO

INDICATED BY THE 12Z GFS. WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE

NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IS INDEED RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY

AND SUPPORTIVE OF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS FOR CENTRAL NC...WOULD LIKE

TO SEE BOTH HOW MUCH THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AS IT NEARS OUR

REGION...AS WELL AS HOW SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS HANDLE THIS

POTENTIAL FORECAST CHANGE.

 

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In line with RAH, DC/Baltimore has issued a Nice Summer Weather Watch:

ONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WORDS THAT HAVE BEEN SCARCELY USED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS - SUCH AS

SWEEPING/DRIER/COOLER/STABLE - CAN FINALLY BE USED TO DESCRIBE THE

LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK`S WX. AFTER THE COUPLE OF POTENT UPPER

LEVEL VORT SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE

WEEK...WE WILL BE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE

EXITING SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER

MIDWEST AND WE`LL SEE THE STAGNANT HUMIDITY OF THE PAST MONTH SWEPT

OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE

DAY ON THU...ALLOWING FOR ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS SINCE JUNE. THIS

COOL START WILL ALSO KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THU RELATIVELY COOL

AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG - BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE L80S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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In line with RAH, DC/Baltimore has issued a Nice Summer Weather Watch:

ONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WORDS THAT HAVE BEEN SCARCELY USED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS - SUCH AS

SWEEPING/DRIER/COOLER/STABLE - CAN FINALLY BE USED TO DESCRIBE THE

LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK`S WX. AFTER THE COUPLE OF POTENT UPPER

LEVEL VORT SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE

WEEK...WE WILL BE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE

EXITING SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER

MIDWEST AND WE`LL SEE THE STAGNANT HUMIDITY OF THE PAST MONTH SWEPT

OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE

DAY ON THU...ALLOWING FOR ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS SINCE JUNE. THIS

COOL START WILL ALSO KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THU RELATIVELY COOL

AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG - BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE L80S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

mmm Ladies.. er L80s. My kind of dry weather is full of  80/08's

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Brett Anderson posted the new Euro weeklies over on accuweather and it looks pretty much like what we have been experiencing. Looks like the Se will have wet periods but mostly below normal to average temps through the month as of right know. If we can get through August with out any real huge heat waves this will have been one of the coolest and wettest summers I can remember in some time.

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Brett Anderson posted the new Euro weeklies over on accuweather and it looks pretty much like what we have been experiencing. Looks like the Se will have wet periods but mostly below normal to average temps through the month as of right know. If we can get through August with out any real huge heat waves this will have been one of the coolest and wettest summers I can remember in some time.

. This summer has been pretty remarkable temp wise, just hope it doesn't mean 90s in October !?
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Lol ya I agree. I hope we do not turn mild and dry as we head into fall.

I do!! I love mild and dry falls. My fave time of year. Makes leaf watching better. Allows yard work and outdoor activities late into the season. And nothing beats those crisp, dry mornings at the bus stop.

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Lol ya I agree. I hope we do not turn mild and dry as we head into fall.

 

Mild a dry sounds wonderful to me.  Sick of the rain, land slides, and flooding; I want to see ground dry enough for dust.  If we get a hurricane into the mountains this fall it will be an epic disaster.

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Some of us will see upper 50's and low 60's for overnight temps on Sunday and Monday night. Low dew points... NWS has 61 and 63 for my location on Sunday and Monday night. GFS has upper 50's for me.. This looks to be a North GA and North AL and NC mountains "event"

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Ya we hit the 50s this past week and boy was it nice. I think some of the higher peaks could see some 40s which is pretty unheard of for this time of the year unless they are records. Could see some low to mid 50s here in the big Haywood county. Will be nice for most of the SE though.

 

The extended models(GFS in particular) show a cool and wet period for many in the SE. The 10 day GFS even looks like a winter pattern; minus the cold air of course.

 

6z GFS:

gfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif  

Ya sounds pretty much what we have gone through the last two winters. Hey this winter maybe different but I am not holding my breath.

 

Mild a dry sounds wonderful to me.  Sick of the rain, land slides, and flooding; I want to see ground dry enough for dust.  If we get a hurricane into the mountains this fall it will be an epic disaster.

Well I am thinking about snow more than rain this fall. Ya we really need to dry out because all of the rain. I think the first part of fall we will see some milder dryer weather and maybe into the first part of October but I would like to see some snow and cold in here around Halloween.

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Ya we hit the 50s this past week and boy was it nice. I think some of the higher peaks could see some 40s which is pretty unheard of for this time of the year unless they are records. Could see some low to mid 50s here in the big Haywood county. Will be nice for most of the SE though.

Ya sounds pretty much what we have gone through the last two winters. Hey this winter maybe different but I am not holding my breath.

Well I am thinking about snow more than rain this fall. Ya we really need to dry out because all of the rain. I think the first part of fall we will see some milder dryer weather and maybe into the first part of October but I would like to see some snow and cold in here around Halloween.

Did you see any snow last year with Hurricane Sandy?

I know some places in NC saw some snow including Wilkesborodud.

November and March of last winter was very cold. Wasn't that bad of a winter.

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Here are the number of 90+ degree temperature days this year for these select cities:

 

Boston - 17

New York - 15

DC - 20

Richmond - 30

Raleigh - 15

Charlotte - 8

Columbia - 26

Atlanta - 6

 

Atlanta with the fewest number among those cities...what a summer

 

500mb height anomaly map for June 1 to July 25 shows the dual ridging in the western U.S. and western Atlantic, with cloud and rain producing mean trough in between:

 

sM1upuN.gif

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Did you see any snow last year with Hurricane Sandy?

I know some places in NC saw some snow including Wilkesborodud.

November and March of last winter was very cold. Wasn't that bad of a winter.

Yes we had 6 inches in October. I posted some pics here during that storm. Closer to the TN/NC boarder there was upwards of two feet. Ya this past winter was not that bad. We had a total of 42.5 inches for the whole season.

 

Here are the number of 90+ degree temperature days this year for these select cities:

 

Boston - 17

New York - 15

DC - 20

Richmond - 30

Raleigh - 15

Charlotte - 8

Columbia - 26

Atlanta - 6

 

Atlanta with the fewest number among those cities...what a summer

 

500mb height anomaly map for June 1 to July 25 shows the dual ridging in the western U.S. and western Atlantic, with cloud and rain producing mean trough in between:

 

sM1upuN.gif

That map is a thing of beauty. Has been a nice spring.summer so far temp wise. Just way to much rainfall.

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Fronts scheduled to make an appearance in the SE neighborhood and wash out somewhere  Thurs and late weekend. Interest of whatever comes of our D-disturbance and how it plays out in the scheme of things  late next weekend could potentially have some significant impacts on someone in the SE. Really need a week or 2  stretch of dry weather in the SE before a tropical feature comes along and really puts the hammer down on some communities. That window to dry out is getting smaller as we head toward peak season in a few weeks

 

eta84hr_925_wnd.gif

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Well more good news in regards to temps being tempered as we finish rolling through whats left of the dog days of summer. 20 days till High School Football kicks-off.

From Raleigh discussion:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY...

THE PATTERN OF THE PAST 30-60 DAYS CONTINUES TO BE VERY PERSISTENT

AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.

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