Met1985 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap has Euro out to 150, or, on a rare good day, further than that. There's also http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=00〈=en. Thanks Wildre. I also use instantweathermaps.com some but these other maps are more detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Any reason should I buy the Euro on today's runs Day 5-6? Both it and GFS has a pretty good upper trough but the difference is the strong impulse left behind drifting through the Deep South. FWIW, Euro keeps it slowly drifting Day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 DT Alert!: Wxrisk.com about an hour ago *** NOTIFICATION** if the current of Model data .. GFS ECMWF .. CMC and their respective ensembles are correct... No from NC VA Border north will 1) see max temps at or above 100 for the rest of the Summer/ year and a very good chance no one North of the VA NC state line will see max tamp above 95 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 DT Alert!: Wxrisk.com about an hour ago *** NOTIFICATION** if the current of Model data .. GFS ECMWF .. CMC and their respective ensembles are correct... No from NC VA Border north will 1) see max temps at or above 100 for the rest of the Summer/ year and a very good chance no one North of the VA NC state line will see max tamp above 95 degrees. That would be nice!! But in the short time RAH is cooling down the forecast for the next few days. From this afternoons discussions: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THU AND THU NIGHT: NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY THU MORNING. SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD PLACE OUR REGION MORE SOLIDLY IN RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...PARTICULARLY IF WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY H85 FLOW MATERIALIZES AND RIDES ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT BELOW...YIELDING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE 12Z NAM/WRF AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATE. SUCH A SOLUTION IS A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE REGIME...ALSO INDICATED BY THE 12Z GFS. WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST IS INDEED RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AND SUPPORTIVE OF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS FOR CENTRAL NC...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BOTH HOW MUCH THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AS IT NEARS OUR REGION...AS WELL AS HOW SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL FORECAST CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 In line with RAH, DC/Baltimore has issued a Nice Summer Weather Watch: ONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WORDS THAT HAVE BEEN SCARCELY USED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS - SUCH AS SWEEPING/DRIER/COOLER/STABLE - CAN FINALLY BE USED TO DESCRIBE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK`S WX. AFTER THE COUPLE OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WE WILL BE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WE`LL SEE THE STAGNANT HUMIDITY OF THE PAST MONTH SWEPT OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE DAY ON THU...ALLOWING FOR ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS SINCE JUNE. THIS COOL START WILL ALSO KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THU RELATIVELY COOL AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG - BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE L80S. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 In line with RAH, DC/Baltimore has issued a Nice Summer Weather Watch: ONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WORDS THAT HAVE BEEN SCARCELY USED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS - SUCH AS SWEEPING/DRIER/COOLER/STABLE - CAN FINALLY BE USED TO DESCRIBE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK`S WX. AFTER THE COUPLE OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WE WILL BE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WE`LL SEE THE STAGNANT HUMIDITY OF THE PAST MONTH SWEPT OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE DAY ON THU...ALLOWING FOR ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS SINCE JUNE. THIS COOL START WILL ALSO KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THU RELATIVELY COOL AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG - BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE L80S. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off mmm Ladies.. er L80s. My kind of dry weather is full of 80/08's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Would that be the real deal then? Or still considered foreplay? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Brett Anderson posted the new Euro weeklies over on accuweather and it looks pretty much like what we have been experiencing. Looks like the Se will have wet periods but mostly below normal to average temps through the month as of right know. If we can get through August with out any real huge heat waves this will have been one of the coolest and wettest summers I can remember in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Brett Anderson posted the new Euro weeklies over on accuweather and it looks pretty much like what we have been experiencing. Looks like the Se will have wet periods but mostly below normal to average temps through the month as of right know. If we can get through August with out any real huge heat waves this will have been one of the coolest and wettest summers I can remember in some time.. This summer has been pretty remarkable temp wise, just hope it doesn't mean 90s in October !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 . This summer has been pretty remarkable temp wise, just hope it doesn't mean 90s in October !? Lol ya I agree. I hope we do not turn mild and dry as we head into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Lol ya I agree. I hope we do not turn mild and dry as we head into fall. I do!! I love mild and dry falls. My fave time of year. Makes leaf watching better. Allows yard work and outdoor activities late into the season. And nothing beats those crisp, dry mornings at the bus stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 I do!! I love mild and dry falls. My fave time of year. Makes leaf watching better. Allows yard work and outdoor activities late into the season. And nothing beats those crisp, dry mornings at the bus stop. Lol sounds good for you but I like some snow on the ground before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Some of us will see upper 50's and low 60's for overnight temps on Sunday and Monday night. Low dew points... NWS has 61 and 63 for my location on Sunday and Monday night. GFS has upper 50's for me.. This looks to be a North GA and North AL and NC mountains "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 The extended models(GFS in particular) show a cool and wet period for many in the SE. The 10 day GFS even looks like a winter pattern; minus the cold air of course. 6z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 The extended models(GFS in particular) show a cool and wet period for many in the SE. The 10 day GFS even looks like a winter pattern; minus the cold air of course. 6z GFS: No, the lack of cold air...now that's exactly like a winter pattern. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 No, the lack of cold air...now that's exactly like a winter pattern. Ha! You beat me to it. Falls pretty much described it correctly the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Lol ya I agree. I hope we do not turn mild and dry as we head into fall. Mild a dry sounds wonderful to me. Sick of the rain, land slides, and flooding; I want to see ground dry enough for dust. If we get a hurricane into the mountains this fall it will be an epic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Some of us will see upper 50's and low 60's for overnight temps on Sunday and Monday night. Low dew points... NWS has 61 and 63 for my location on Sunday and Monday night. GFS has upper 50's for me.. This looks to be a North GA and North AL and NC mountains "event" image.jpg Ya we hit the 50s this past week and boy was it nice. I think some of the higher peaks could see some 40s which is pretty unheard of for this time of the year unless they are records. Could see some low to mid 50s here in the big Haywood county. Will be nice for most of the SE though. The extended models(GFS in particular) show a cool and wet period for many in the SE. The 10 day GFS even looks like a winter pattern; minus the cold air of course. 6z GFS: Ya sounds pretty much what we have gone through the last two winters. Hey this winter maybe different but I am not holding my breath. Mild a dry sounds wonderful to me. Sick of the rain, land slides, and flooding; I want to see ground dry enough for dust. If we get a hurricane into the mountains this fall it will be an epic disaster. Well I am thinking about snow more than rain this fall. Ya we really need to dry out because all of the rain. I think the first part of fall we will see some milder dryer weather and maybe into the first part of October but I would like to see some snow and cold in here around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Ya we hit the 50s this past week and boy was it nice. I think some of the higher peaks could see some 40s which is pretty unheard of for this time of the year unless they are records. Could see some low to mid 50s here in the big Haywood county. Will be nice for most of the SE though. Ya sounds pretty much what we have gone through the last two winters. Hey this winter maybe different but I am not holding my breath. Well I am thinking about snow more than rain this fall. Ya we really need to dry out because all of the rain. I think the first part of fall we will see some milder dryer weather and maybe into the first part of October but I would like to see some snow and cold in here around Halloween. Did you see any snow last year with Hurricane Sandy? I know some places in NC saw some snow including Wilkesborodud. November and March of last winter was very cold. Wasn't that bad of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 Here are the number of 90+ degree temperature days this year for these select cities: Boston - 17 New York - 15 DC - 20 Richmond - 30 Raleigh - 15 Charlotte - 8 Columbia - 26 Atlanta - 6 Atlanta with the fewest number among those cities...what a summer 500mb height anomaly map for June 1 to July 25 shows the dual ridging in the western U.S. and western Atlantic, with cloud and rain producing mean trough in between: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Did you see any snow last year with Hurricane Sandy? I know some places in NC saw some snow including Wilkesborodud. November and March of last winter was very cold. Wasn't that bad of a winter. Yes we had 6 inches in October. I posted some pics here during that storm. Closer to the TN/NC boarder there was upwards of two feet. Ya this past winter was not that bad. We had a total of 42.5 inches for the whole season. Here are the number of 90+ degree temperature days this year for these select cities: Boston - 17 New York - 15 DC - 20 Richmond - 30 Raleigh - 15 Charlotte - 8 Columbia - 26 Atlanta - 6 Atlanta with the fewest number among those cities...what a summer 500mb height anomaly map for June 1 to July 25 shows the dual ridging in the western U.S. and western Atlantic, with cloud and rain producing mean trough in between: That map is a thing of beauty. Has been a nice spring.summer so far temp wise. Just way to much rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Richmond's readings are chronically suspect as inflated. So out of proportion to the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 What is remarkable is how the entire country with the exception of the Northwest is below normal right now and likely to be so until mid August. I don't recall a nationwide mid summer pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I really like the outlook for the start and middle part of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Late July lows in the 50s on the way! It just doesn't want to get hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I really like the outlook for the start and middle part of August. Yep looking toward the end of the Euro I would think this map has a chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Fronts scheduled to make an appearance in the SE neighborhood and wash out somewhere Thurs and late weekend. Interest of whatever comes of our D-disturbance and how it plays out in the scheme of things late next weekend could potentially have some significant impacts on someone in the SE. Really need a week or 2 stretch of dry weather in the SE before a tropical feature comes along and really puts the hammer down on some communities. That window to dry out is getting smaller as we head toward peak season in a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Well more good news in regards to temps being tempered as we finish rolling through whats left of the dog days of summer. 20 days till High School Football kicks-off. From Raleigh discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 259 AM TUESDAY... THE PATTERN OF THE PAST 30-60 DAYS CONTINUES TO BE VERY PERSISTENT AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 One month of meteorological summer left, four and a half weeks til Labor Day Weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 One month of meteorological summer left, four and a half weeks til Labor Day Weekend. We usually stay in the hot and humid pattern until Sept 15 on average though... unless we are very lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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