Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Hard to believe that it is July 15 and the hottest temp I've recorded all year is 90, on three different days. What a change from the last few summers. In 2011 up to this date, Atlanta already had 44 days of 90+ and this year only 4 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Meh all those long range models can take a hike. I think the thing to look at this upcoming winter is how the pac is going to behave. Anyway the Euro continues to show a strong trough coming in after this short heat up. Looks stronger and stronger with each run. Yeah, that model showed cold and snowy with almost every run this past winter. It seems to be fairly inaccurate. We should have a few days in the 90s, but all of the soil moisture should prevent actual temps from being too outrageous. The heat index is going to suck fairly robustly, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Agree the heat isnt anything to out of the ordinary our average daily high for almost every day in July is 90 so its suppose to be hot here in July. The thing that looks to make it suck is the wet ground, I would be surprised to see temps get much above 94-95 Wed-Thur given the ground moisture but the DP's are going to make it pretty rough but we normally dont see a heat advisory until the HI is suppose to top 105 so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Storms will be moving from NE to SW across NC today/ tomorrow if they can get fired up. Don't see this to often. Big afternoon rains should be a mainstay by late weekend /early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Storms will be moving from NE to SW across NC today/ tomorrow if they can get fired up. Don't see this to often. Big afternoon rains should be a mainstay by late weekend /early next week. It's been interesting reading the AFDs out of RAH on this today. Also, Greg Fishel alluded to this scenario last night as well. in part... WHILE THE CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AREN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...AND NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN NOTED YET...MANY OF THE RECENT CAMS BRING THE ASSOCIATED POCKET OF ENHANCED (2+ INCH) PWAT ACROSS OUR CWA (ESP THE EASTERN HALF) TODAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT MOVE FROM THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE S AND SW ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF PRESENT ACTIVITY...PREFER TO LEAVE THE EXISTING POP ARRANGEMENT IN PLACE...WHICH SHOWS 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AS EARLY AS NOON...THEN 20-40 POPS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (HIGHEST EAST)...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS SOUTH EARLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE MORE FREQUENT FORECAST UPDATES TODAY AS WE MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND OUR PREV DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING TODAYS POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Storms will be moving from NE to SW across NC today/ tomorrow if they can get fired up. Don't see this to often. It's been interesting reading the AFDs out of RAH on this today. Also, Greg Fishel alluded to this scenario last night as well. Honestly, I don't ever recall seeing storms move from NE to SW underneath a closed high...but I guess anything's possible in the land where the stars and stripes and the eagle flies From GSP... A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TODAY ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THANYESTERDAY...AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE OP MODEL INDEPICTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION/MCS DEVELOPING OVER SE VA/NE NCAND PROPAGATING IT SWWD INTO THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OFTHE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...INCREASING THECONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL REACH AT LEAST THE I-77 CORRIDORTHIS EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...THE SHEAR AND UPPER FORCING DO NOTSEEM STRONG ENUF TO SUPPORT A ROBUST MCS. RATHER A LOOSELY ORGANIZEDCLUSTER WITH SOME MULTICELLS...MAINLY TO OUR EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It looks like towards the end of the month we could see another surge in the heat across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Per @BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seen http://pic.twitter.com/c6sam3TYLo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Based on the performance of his predictions and that model, I wouldn't be running out to buy snow mobiles just yet! Hopefully , we will have a remarkably cold and snowy winter to go along with this freakishly wet and " cool " summer, but only time will tell! Between now and November , you will see hundreds of predictions for and against a cold winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Is it fall yet? Can I at least get something in the tropics to track...? At least we had all that heat to talk about last year. :sleepy: Hey! At least the wetter pattern keeps coming back. I'm certainly not complaining about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Charlotte has still not had an official heat wave of three consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher this entire year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Atlanta just hit 90 for the first time yesterday? Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Atlanta just hit 90 for the first time yesterday? Is that correct?No. They hit 90 back in June. The first time they hit 90 this month was the day before yesterday before the storms exploded around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Charlotte has still not had an official heat wave of three consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher this entire year. how is three consecutive days of 90 or higher considered a heat wave when the average high in Charlotte is near 90 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 how is three consecutive days of 90 or higher considered a heat wave when the average high in Charlotte is near 90 ? You've never heard of an average run of the mill heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Joe is funny. It'll be a mild winter in the Southeast. After some uncertainty and flip-flop action most guidance calls for La Nina. No more molokai Nino. Nina is a ridge over the Southeast. Per @BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seenhttp://pic.twitter.com/c6sam3TYLo unless factors other than ENSO come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 A weak Nina recently brought NC a nice winter, including White Christmastimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 New Euro weeklies look to keep the SE under normal to below normal temps with periods of unsettled weather. One of those periods is know. My forcast drops my highs back into the 70s starting tomorrow through the next 10 days with 50 percent chance of rain or better each and everyday. Talk about a stuck pattern and if this is all the heat I have to contend with then I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Also new Euro looks very unsettled also with a trough in the East about the whole period with cooler than normal temps. Good thing we got two days to dry out because looks like the wet pattern is fixing to settle in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 As long as this horrible heat abates, let it rain every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Euro weeklies say cooler an normal for the next month. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/latest-long-range-weekly-update/15452712 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 New Euro weeklies look to keep the SE under normal to below normal temps with periods of unsettled weather. One of those periods is know. My forcast drops my highs back into the 70s starting tomorrow through the next 10 days with 50 percent chance of rain or better each and everyday. Talk about a stuck pattern and if this is all the heat I have to contend with then I will take it. Eventually you will be washed down to the coastal plain. It will be warmer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Eventually you will be washed down to the coastal plain. It will be warmer there. I can't go without my escarpment...so I hope it does not wash me away either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Eventually you will be washed down to the coastal plain. It will be warmer there. Lol I know right. Rain rain rain, Hell thats all it does is rain. Looked at the weather for the next week and all we have are 60 percent chance of rain everyday. Well at least we are not in a drought but man do we need to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 What a trough at the end of the period on the Euro. Would be very impressive setup if that occured for this time of the year. But all it means is cooler temps and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 What a trough at the end of the period on the Euro. Would be very impressive setup if that occured for this time of the year. But all it means is cooler temps and more rain. You got a link to a Euro free site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Last week featured the Triad's first heatwave of the year, with four straight days reaching 90 degrees. It also featured the year's hottest temperature, 93 on July 16. Now, there are no 90's forecasted for the next seven days. Perhaps, last week will be the month's only 90-degree temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 You got a link to a Euro free site? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 You got a link to a Euro free site? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap has Euro out to 150, or, on a rare good day, further than that. There's also http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=00〈=en. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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