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July 2013 Pattern and Discussion


griteater

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Meh all those long range models can take a hike. I think the thing to look at this upcoming winter is how the pac is going to behave. Anyway the Euro continues to show a strong trough coming in after this short heat up. Looks stronger and stronger with each run.

Yeah, that model showed cold and snowy with almost every run this past winter. It seems to be fairly inaccurate.

We should have a few days in the 90s, but all of the soil moisture should prevent actual temps from being too outrageous. The heat index is going to suck fairly robustly, though.

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Agree the heat isnt anything to out of the ordinary our average daily high for almost every day in July is 90 so its suppose to be hot here in July. The thing that looks to make it suck is the wet ground, I would be surprised to see temps get much above 94-95 Wed-Thur given the ground moisture but the DP's are going to make it pretty rough but we normally dont see a heat advisory until the HI is suppose to top 105 so..... 

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Storms will be moving from NE to SW across NC today/ tomorrow if they can get fired up. Don't see this to often. Big afternoon rains should be a mainstay by late weekend /early next week.

It's been interesting reading the AFDs out of RAH on this today. Also, Greg Fishel alluded to this scenario last night as well.

 

in part...

 

 

WHILE THE CURRENT RADAR AND

SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AREN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...AND

NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN NOTED YET...MANY OF THE RECENT CAMS

BRING THE ASSOCIATED POCKET OF ENHANCED (2+ INCH) PWAT ACROSS OUR

CWA (ESP THE EASTERN HALF) TODAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE A

CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT MOVE FROM THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE S AND SW

ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF PRESENT ACTIVITY...PREFER TO LEAVE THE

EXISTING POP ARRANGEMENT IN PLACE...WHICH SHOWS 20-30 POPS ACROSS

OUR NE ZONES AS EARLY AS NOON...THEN 20-40 POPS ACROSS MOST OF OUR

CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (HIGHEST EAST)...THEN GRADUALLY

DIMINISHING POPS SOUTH EARLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE MORE FREQUENT

FORECAST UPDATES TODAY AS WE MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND OUR PREV

DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE AND ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION REGARDING TODAYS POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

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Storms will be moving from NE to SW across NC today/ tomorrow if they can get fired up. Don't see this to often.

 

It's been interesting reading the AFDs out of RAH on this today. Also, Greg Fishel alluded to this scenario last night as well.

 

Honestly, I don't ever recall seeing storms move from NE to SW underneath a closed high...but I guess anything's possible in the land where the stars and stripes and the eagle flies

 

From GSP...

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TODAY ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THANYESTERDAY...AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE OP MODEL INDEPICTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION/MCS DEVELOPING OVER SE VA/NE NCAND PROPAGATING IT SWWD INTO THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OFTHE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...INCREASING THECONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL REACH AT LEAST THE I-77 CORRIDORTHIS EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...THE SHEAR AND UPPER FORCING DO NOTSEEM STRONG ENUF TO SUPPORT A ROBUST MCS. RATHER A LOOSELY ORGANIZEDCLUSTER WITH SOME MULTICELLS...MAINLY TO OUR EAST.
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Based on the performance of his predictions and that model, I wouldn't be running out to buy snow mobiles just yet! Hopefully , we will have a remarkably cold and snowy winter to go along with this freakishly wet and " cool " summer, but only time will tell! Between now and November , you will see hundreds of predictions for and against a cold winter!

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Joe is funny. It'll be a mild winter in the Southeast. After some uncertainty and flip-flop action most guidance calls for La Nina. No more molokai Nino. Nina is a ridge over the Southeast.

 

Per @BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seen

http://pic.twitter.com/c6sam3TYLo

jHCWko3.png

unless factors other than ENSO come in...

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New Euro weeklies look to keep the SE under normal to below normal temps with periods of unsettled weather. One of those periods is know. My forcast drops my highs back into the 70s starting tomorrow through the next 10 days with 50 percent chance of rain or better each and everyday. Talk about a stuck pattern and if this is all the heat I have to contend with then I will take it.

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New Euro weeklies look to keep the SE under normal to below normal temps with periods of unsettled weather. One of those periods is know. My forcast drops my highs back into the 70s starting tomorrow through the next 10 days with 50 percent chance of rain or better each and everyday. Talk about a stuck pattern and if this is all the heat I have to contend with then I will take it.

 

Eventually you will be washed down to the coastal plain.  It will be warmer there.

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