Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like the weather is on repeat around here. Another chance of storms this afernoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like the weather is on repeat around here. Another chance of storms this afernoon and evening. ....until Mid-Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Good post Robert. I can really pick the week to go to the beach. LOL I was thinking the same thing since we go to the river for a week and Roberts post is a kick in the balls, oh well I will be fishing most of the time and the fish are already wet, just need the wind to lay down some and not be blowing SSW 15-20 all the time ugh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 No huge changes in the global models this afternoon in regards to the developing pattern next week across the Southeast US. The combination of the Bermuda High combined with an extremely deep trough (for July standards) is going to result in a very juiced atmosphere.I'm thinking the first focus of precip will be along the Georgia and Carolina Costal Plain and some focus will be along the Apps. However as we get to mid to late next week, the focus will broaden to include a majority of the interior Southeast. This afternoon's GFS is putting out some obscene PWAT's in excess of 2.5 inches...and even the 2 inch PWAT's are nearly banked up against the Apps. With a south flow and any surface instability, efficient rain producing thunderstorms will be common. This PWAT's map for hour 180 is nearly laughable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 No huge changes in the global models this afternoon in regards to the developing pattern next week across the Southeast US. The combination of the Bermuda High combined with an extremely deep trough (for July standards) is going to result in a very juiced atmosphere. I'm thinking the first focus of precip will be along the Georgia and Carolina Costal Plain and some focus will be along the Apps. However as we get to mid to late next week, the focus will broaden to include a majority of the interior Southeast. This afternoon's GFS is putting out some obscene PWAT's in excess of 2.5 inches...and even the 2 inch PWAT's are nearly banked up against the Apps. With a south flow and any surface instability, efficient rain producing thunderstorms will be common. This PWAT's map for hour 180 is nearly laughable... Ya just took a look at the Euro and like you said no real big changes. Looks very very wet and near to below normal temps across a good portion and the East and SE. Going to be interesting how all this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Ya just took a look at the Euro and like you said no real big changes. Looks very very wet and near to below normal temps across a good portion and the East and SE. Going to be interesting how all this develops.Yep, slightly below normal temps along with very wet conditions is right. The ground down here is already very saturated. That map above is crazy. Get under one of those training cells, and flash flooding becomes a problem quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Everything still on track in regards to the huge trough that will be developing over Mississipi River Valley and the results along the East Coast. As you can see on this water vapor image the massive ridge that the globals models predicted 4-5 days ago has developed, meanwhile the trough is developing as you can see a vort over Iowa dropping almost due south...that should develop a very deep trough which will close off from time to time across the Western area of the Tennessee/Lower Ohio River Valley Region... Looking at the GFS and other models, the details behind this event are starting to be revealed... Our trough will be getting set late tonight through tomorrow, winds across the most of the southeast should veer to the Southwest by early tomorrow and a surge of moisture aloft should begin to invade those along the east coast. I'm thinking activity will begin to pick up for those along the I-95 cooridor and east on Sunday. By Monday our 500mb cutoff (1 contour) will be over Southern IL, SW Indiana and Western Kentucky. Notice the wind max located over the Appalachains so the band of moisture should be over the Piedmont/Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and extending down into Florida. That region should continue to receive the most concentrated shower/storm activity through Tuesday.. By Wednesday our trough will slowly begin to retrograde to the west and situate itself over Missouri. That combined with the Bermuda High should push the focus west to put more of the interior Southeast into play...the 500mb will have already done the dirty work by then in bringing in the moisture but by Wednesday the Bermuda High is going to introduce more vorticity into the atmosphere which will help promote areas of concentrated activity. The 12z GFS in particular has two small vorts/MCS type features surging north out of the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. This pattern will last until next weekend but by Saturday our trough should begin to lift and fill in...that said, the Bermuda High will still deliver a southeast flow to the entire region... In summary, I see the Coastal Plain getting active as early as tomorrow but the axis of concentration shall begin to shift west especially by mid week. For the interior Southeast, Wed-Fri looks to be more active which is terrible timing for the July 4 holiday. Two areas I would watch out in regards to QPF will be along the Carolina Coastal Plain and also the Southern Apps east to Charlotte Metro and then down into Upstate SC and North and Eastern GA. There are several factors that point toward that secondary max in the Apps. Decent 850 flow up against the mountains...I think there will be at least one occasion in this pattern where a LLJ will establish itself leading to nighttime convection. Plus as a stated this region could have more vorticity at play if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Everything still on track in regards to the huge trough that will be developing over Mississipi River Valley and the results along the East Coast. ... Looking at the GFS and other models, the details behind this event are starting to be revealed... ... By Monday our 500mb cutoff (1 contour) will be over Southern IL, SW Indiana and Western Kentucky. Notice the wind max located over the Appalachains so the band of moisture should be over the Piedmont/Coastal Plain of the Carolinas and extending down into Florida. That region should continue to receive the most concentrated shower/storm activity through Tuesday.. ... Very nice write-up, Marion. Well done! I happen to currently be in Southern IL and will be through the Independence Day holiday. The weather forecast for these next few days here is fabulous: upper 70s for highs with scattered showers here and there. I can't remember a similar weather pattern over the week of the 4th in the past couple of decades. It's usually 90s and hotter here during this time. So, this is a real treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Marion great write up man! Euro still looking good for a good soaking and nice temps. Also one thing I have been noticing is that the Euro know and the GFS to a point has a trough redeveloping by about mid month. Just like the pattern in April and in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 This is a fairly amazing graphic from the WPC. What a turn-around from a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Took a quick look at the 18z GFS...holding status quo with the setup. The thing that continues to get my attention is how active dynamically it will become between the trough and the Bermuda...this pic @ 108 shows 4 different vorts from the Gulf northward to the Appalachians. There will be a moisture tap coming from as far away as the Yucatan being funneled north. PWAT's over 2 inches and maybe as high as 2.5 in some areas require little dynamic or convective assistance. The worst part about the whole system is that timing is going to be awful for the 4th of July holiday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 This is a fairly amazing graphic from the WPC. What a turn-around from a year ago. p168i.gif Yep what a yeat makes. I think this time last year there were many places running some 5-10 inches below normal. The opposite this year and with that graphic we will see some major flooding out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Took a quick look at the 18z GFS...holding status quo with the setup. The thing that continues to get my attention is how active dynamically it will become between the trough and the Bermuda...this pic @ 108 shows 4 different vorts from the Gulf northward to the Appalachians. There will be a moisture tap coming from as far away as the Yucatan being funneled north. PWAT's over 2 inches and maybe as high as 2.5 in some areas require little dynamic or convective assistance. The worst part about the whole system is that timing is going to be awful for the 4th of July holiday... Next week could be a whole washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I think a dedicated thread may be in order after I look at the 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I think a dedicated thread may be in order after I look at the 0z GFS... Ya I think so to. This is going to be big deal with rainfall totals running some 10+ inches above normal and the ground so saturated. the 00z pretty much is like the last couple runs. Just a lots of rainfall over the SE and the East Coast. To much rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 By the look of the 00z from tomorrow through the weeks is going to be very very wet. From FL, GA,SC,NC, and even into TN and up the East coast by hour 72 some places are going to be approaching 4 plus inches. Wow that os a lot of water runnign off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 By hour 96 when the trough is retrograding to the West then points like the mountains and into AL will get into the action with AL recieving maybe 1-2 inches by then but the southern apps will be getting hammered with a tone of rainfall. this could lead to major flooding across that area along down into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 By the look of the 00z from tomorrow through the weeks is going to be very very wet. From FL, GA,SC,NC, and even into TN and up the East coast by hour 72 some places are going to be approaching 4 plus inches. Wow that os a lot of water runnign off. The great beach trip flood of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Lol the 4th looks like a washout for WNC and into Northern GA. The rainfall totals by hour 120 ot July 5th are pretty amazing. You have some areas in SC and NC that look like they pick up 6+ inches of rain. There will be major flooding if that happens. In many areas there looks to be a general 2-4+ inches of rainfall which is already falling on saturated grounds with totals running some 8+ inches above normal already in many areas of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 The great beach trip flood of 2013. Lol man I fill for ya. At least try to enjoy it. Hey if you need a search party to come get ya just let us know. We will get a crew together and come get with a motor boat. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Lol the 4th looks like a washout for WNC and into Northern GA. The rainfall totals by hour 120 ot July 5th are pretty amazing. You have some areas in SC and NC that look like they pick up 6+ inches of rain. There will be major flooding if that happens. In many areas there looks to be a general 2-4+ inches of rainfall which is already falling on saturated grounds with totals running some 8+ inches above normal already in many areas of the SE. Allow me to make the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Allow me to make the thread. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 From Mike Dross with Wright Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 What's the story with the big dry corridor from Southern Pines up through Raleigh to Henderson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Looks like as the High to the East builds in we will not really get that hot according to the Euro. As I have been reading around the board it is interesting because this high is very strong but will not bring oppressive heat like out West is getting right know which sounds great to me. Maybe we will have normal temps with pop up storms under this high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Per article, risk of landfalling hurricanes increasing this July/August over normal years. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/07/risk-of-landfalling-hurricane-in-july.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Asking the experts.. Not trying to sound obtuse here, but what would a weather pattern of this type have meant for central NC, say in January instead of July? This midwest UL situation would have brought snow or just a lot of cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 Not trying to sound obtuse here, but what would a weather pattern of this type have meant for central NC, say in January instead of July? This midwest UL situation would have brought snow or just a lot of cold rain? It would be a warm rain. The cold air would be located well to the northwest, underneath and to the north and west of the closed off upper low that is positioned over the Midwest. A comparable, real-world example for snow would be the Jan 2000 storm which had a deep and slow moving upper trough close off way down in southern GA/SC, leading to the big central Carolina snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It would be a warm rain. The cold air would be located well to the northwest, underneath and to the north and west of the closed off upper low that is positioned over the Midwest. A comparable, real-world example for snow would be the Jan 2000 storm which had a deep and slow moving upper trough close off way down in southern GA/SC, leading to the big central Carolina snow. Unless a 50/50 low was in place to secure HP over the NE. Then we'd be talking snow and/or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I know we're all focused on the current setup across the Southeast...but for entertainment value this afternoon's GFS brings (at the very least) a tropical wave through the Bahamas, Florida and into the Southeast in about a week... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=wnatl¶m=500_vort_ht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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