bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The models are creating a strong Newfoundland block while a trough is forecast to dig into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This results in a front stalling along the East Coast with deep moisture being drawn north from the Southeast. The models are showing this pattern developing later this week and persisting into early July. Heavy rainfall totals over 5.00" will be possible in areas that see the best training of cells around the Northeast. The duration of this pattern will determine how soon after the start of July that this pattern will be able to last. One long duration blocking pattern this time of year back in 1975 produced over 11.00" of rain during a twenty day period. July 1975 extended Newfoundland Block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 July 75 started out cool and ended hot...it was cooler than average by one degree...It was the second wettest July on record...1889 was the wettest...tropical storm Amy was off shore around July 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 July 75 started out cool and ended hot...it was cooler than average by one degree...It was the second wettest July on record...1889 was the wettest...tropical storm Amy was off shore around July 1st... It was also similar to the very wet pattern since May 8th with the blocking pattern near the Canadian Maritimes and the +NAO. Its a departure from the last few years around this time when the blocking has been higher latitude with the very low NAO and AO readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 75.gif OT but look at how much lower heights were in general across the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The models are creating a strong Newfoundland block while a trough is forecast to dig into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This results in a front stalling along the East Coast with deep moisture being drawn north from the Southeast. The models are showing this pattern developing later this week and persisting into early July. Very heavy rainfall totals over 5.00" will be possible in areas that see the best training of cells around the region. The duration of this pattern will determine how soon after the start of July that this pattern will be able to last. One long duration blocking pattern this time of year back in 1975 produced over 11.00" of rain during a twenty day period. f120.jpg Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif July 1975 extended Newfoundland Block 75.gif if any tropical entity formed in the Atlantic with this kind of setup (strong NF block, deep east coast trough) the east coast would most likely be a target. If will be interesting to see if this pattern persists throughout most of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 OT but look at how much lower heights were in general across the globe. That's very true. The overall 500 mb heights are higher now than they were back in the 1970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 How did the 00z ECMWF look last night regarding heavy rain potential? The 00z GGEM sets up the main moisture feed next week and then sends the tropical disturbance from the gulf into central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 How did the 00z ECMWF look last night regarding heavy rain potential? The 00z GGEM sets up the main moisture feed next week and then sends the tropical disturbance from the gulf into central PA Euro was not impressive at all through Tuesday. It had .40" of rain late Thursday into Friday am. Nothing on Friday. Very little on Saturday (.10"). Very little for Sunday. .50" for Monday and about the same for Tuesday. A total of about 1.50" spread out over 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Euro was not impressive at all through Tuesday. It had .40" of rain late Thursday into Friday am. Nothing on Friday. Very little on Saturday (.10"). Very little for Sunday. .50" for Monday and about the same for Tuesday. A total of about 1.50" spread out over 5-6 days. Through Thursday of next week, total rains were 2"-2.50" for NYC. 3"-4" for NJ. 4"+ for SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I think showers t-storms will be most numerous with the low going to our NW Thursday into Friday. Then maybe again with cold front stalling out Sunday into Monday After that, the latest GEFS really builds the WAR west next week. The Euro ENS does to a lesser extent. But both suggest the bulk of the heavy rains and t-storms will shift away from the coastal plain, during the middle and later part of next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 The 12z NAM is 2"+ of rain for NYC and 3.0"+ from about KMMU north and west up into New England through hour 75 Part of the reason for the increase in rain totals is the shift of the track of the low more to the south. It gets the core of the rain much closer to our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Any experts out there care to weigh in on Thursday 12-6 pm timeframe for northern Middlesex County (Edison area) with regard to likelihood of significant rainfall and storms? NWS calling for 70% likelihood of showers/storms with 0.25-0.50" of precip possible. Reason I ask is we're supposed to have a work BBQ with 100+ people in a Merrill Park in Woodbridge Twp and we can reschedule now without committing $1000 in perishables, whereas if we let it go, we may cancel tomorrow and lose that investment (we can freeze some of the meats). I'm leaning towards cancelling and hoping the next date in August will be dry. Even if it's not raining the whole time, if we have 2-3 15-20 minute showers and 1/2" of rain, that's going to make things kind of miserable (we do have a gazebo which most can fit under, but it'll be real crowded and we'd have to bring the grills under that too) and the already saturated ground will be a muddy mess. Any thoughts out there? Any chance the storms really won't hit until after 5 pm or so? Any help much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Any experts out there care to weigh in on Thursday 12-6 pm timeframe for northern Middlesex County (Edison area) with regard to likelihood of significant rainfall and storms? NWS calling for 70% likelihood of showers/storms with 0.25-0.50" of precip possible. Reason I ask is we're supposed to have a work BBQ with 100+ people in a Merrill Park in Woodbridge Twp and we can reschedule now without committing $1000 in perishables, whereas if we let it go, we may cancel tomorrow and lose that investment (we can freeze some of the meats). I'm leaning towards cancelling and hoping the next date in August will be dry. Even if it's not raining the whole time, if we have 2-3 15-20 minute showers and 1/2" of rain, that's going to make things kind of miserable (we do have a gazebo which most can fit under, but it'll be real crowded and we'd have to bring the grills under that too) and the already saturated ground will be a muddy mess. Any thoughts out there? Any chance the storms really won't hit until after 5 pm or so? Any help much appreciated. This is valid for Thursday afternoon, your call Side note : Can you please keep questions like that in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 The 12z GFS is also wet. 1-2"+ over the next three days with locally heavier amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 The 12z GFS is one of the wettest models now for our region over the next seven days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 ur fav, the nam should stay in the banter thread What? The NAM is designed for forecasting convection. Nobody takes its rainfall estimates seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 HPC has shift its axis of heaviest rainfall a bit south. We're now in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday. 7 day totals were still estimated in the 4-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 12z euro just upped the rain for very early Friday morning. 1.01" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 12z euro just upped the rain for very early Friday morning. 1.01" for NYC. What did it have for the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 What did it have for the next week? Soundings are only out to Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Still waiting for the GGEM to finish updating but it looks rather ugly with multiple waves of low pressure being generated which then move along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 7 day totals were still estimated in the 4-6" range. Fwiw, that's really a 3-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Still waiting for the GGEM to finish updating but it looks rather ugle with multiple waves of low pressure being generated which then move along the coast. It's updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 It's updated: Yikes, a tad worse than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Fwiw, that's really a 3-4" range. I was counting the 4-5+" shade over NW NJ and southern NY as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I was counting the 4-5+" shade over NW NJ and southern NY as well OK. But it's really a 4.00"-4.20" shade (4.20" max around Allentown). Whatever the case, plenty wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Soundings are only out to Saturday morning. Do you have the total rain for the 12z Euro for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 OK. But it's really a 4.00"-4.20" shade (4.20" max around Allentown). Whatever the case, plenty wet! Yeah and it was issued before the 12z runs today so it needs updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 WGUS61 KOKX 261929FFAOKXURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY329 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON...CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-271100-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0003.130627T1600Z-130628T2200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-329 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THEFOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERNFAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERNNEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEWJERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERNSUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERNWESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER ANDSOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON* A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE OHIOVALLEY INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTOFRIDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEMINTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.* THIS SETUP IS CONDUCIVE TO BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALLRATES COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAINOVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN HOUR...WHICH WOULD CAUSE URBAN ANDSMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING.* OVERALL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREATHURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE PATH OFTRAINING ACTIVITY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MARKED RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIRBANKS.* ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLETHIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY PROLONG THE THREATFOR FLOODING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 And for the Mt. Holly folks FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ324 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013NJZ001-007-008-271000-/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0003.130627T2000Z-130628T1500Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN324 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN.* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, 1 TO 2 WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE.* ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.* ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE PASSAIC, RARITAN, AND THE DELAWARE COULD RISE A COUPLE FEET, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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