Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 It's possible we could go 5 for 5 during the work week in this thread for watches at least. Tomorrow looks like we'll get some sort of broken line east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 It's possible we could go 5 for 5 during the work week in this thread for watches at least. Tomorrow looks like we'll get some sort of broken line east of the apps. Pulse severe ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 The thurs-sat evolution is tricky but one of those days could have a decent tornado threat somewhere in the region. Should be able to snag a 5% somewhere at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Pulse severe ftlBonus days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Bonus days Thursday will be meh with 20kts 0-6 km shear if the NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Bonus days This. Wasn't really expecting a whole lot today (got some rain and thunder which is a win for me). Thurs/Fri is the target. If we fail there then I will continue to hate our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Thursday will be meh with 20kts 0-6 km shear if the NAM is rightTiming might be a problem as usual. My guess is Thurs will end up with enough tho. Not sure the front will stay far enough north for Friday but that could be a good one with better shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 SPC drops SLGT risk for us for Thursday and not even 5% for Friday Thurs disco: ..MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REGRESSED REGARDING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SERN NY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 LWX meso models seem to suggest rapid development this afternoon of storms after 2pm across the area... I think another round is developing I-81 corridor at 8 pm tomorrow night but that is as far as the WRF-NMM4N goes on its 00z 6/26 run... hits our area between 4-7 pm in some kind of conglomerate... 00z 6/26 WRF-ARW disagrees and says individual cells in the area... then develops a nice line to our W/NW and is bringing it through as the run ends around 8 pm (prob 9pm ish for DC proper) FWIW, SLGT risk for I-95 and to the W and NW for today... 15% wind and 15% hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Watch them bring back the D2 Slight this afternoon just to eff with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 61 mph at Martin State Airport METAR KMTN 260248Z AUTO 29031G53KT 10SM SCT065 28/17 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W THRU N Well that explains the condition of my deck this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Last night was a swing and a miss. Poop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Not sure the D2 made a ton of sense. There is discrepancy between the NAM/SREF and globals etc. The former are not super I suppose but the NAM still has plenty of instability with a 500mb pool crossing during the afternoon. Friday might be shot if the cold front gets away.. tho south still seems open to more options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 no instability! :< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 no instability! :< It's imaginary CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 It's imaginary CAPE. we'll be yellowed again. #bookit plus there's today i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 no instability! :< GFS_3_2013062612_F33_CAPE_SURFACE.png Hey, its what they said Watch Ellinwood be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 we'll be yellowed again. #bookit plus there's today i guess. You have a good track record. Now whether that translates to actual severe for us remains to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 2500-3000 SBCAPE already at noon... 1500-2000 MLCAPE... -5 to -6 LI's... LL Lapse Rates approaching 7.5 C/KM and ML Lapse Rates are actually decent above 6.0 C/KM for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Ian's threads almost always deliver, no one should ever doubt them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 You have a good track record. Now whether that translates to actual severe for us remains to be determined. it looks less impressive than it has at times but given we only need 30 mph gusts to get severe warnings around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 2500-3000 SBCAPE already at noon... 1500-2000 MLCAPE... -5 to -6 LI's... LL Lapse Rates aproaaching 7.5 C/KM and ML Lapse Rates are actually decent above 6.0 C/KM for now storms firing nw of cho already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 storms firing nw of cho already. LWX's meso-models from last night had initiation about now... ConvT must be low today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I put pity MD chances at 80%... pity watch at 50%... pity warning at 95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I really hope LWX doesn't go trigger happy for twigs down in the forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I really hope LWX doesn't go trigger happy for twigs down in the forest. 32 leaves fell in our pool last night, this is serwious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I put pity MD chances at 80%... pity watch at 50%... pity warning at 95% Pity MD issued... watch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Abrupt change from this morning... 1730 OTLK now mentions tornadoes .ERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AT LEAST MODERATE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SETUP SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MOST ROBUST COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE 500 MB NWLYS SHOULD REACH 25-35 KT AMIDST A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HERE...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH NRN EXTENT. BUT WITH PROBABLE CYCLOGENESIS...EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Lolz spc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Lolz spc Is there really a risk for a few spin-ups tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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