Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 derecho watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Of course we miss out. I hate us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 12z NAM looks pretty good for both Thurs and Fri .. nice sounding for Fri. not really sure on fri myself for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Maybe? I know its a hope and a prayer for a miracle TONIGHT...MCS ACTIVITY OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THISAFTERNOON WILL APPROACH OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS LITTLECERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL SURVIVE EAST OF THEMOUNTAINS...BUT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATEINSTABILITY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOIMPACT OUR AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD THE MCS HOLD TOGETHER...THENSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESTRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWAWHERE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New Day 2 has SLGT risk knocking on our door... just west of I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 If it can make it across the mountains I think severe is a good bet. Primed out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 STW Garrett MD and into N WV till 12 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 2000 OTLK moves SLGT risk south... now for CHO to EZF and north... for wind. 30% risk wind parallels M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 #derechowatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 One thing interesting today is how terribly the RAP has done with the CAPE forecasts on SPC mesoanalysis. It showed them going down etc, still did last check in future hours yet we ended up like 2-3k+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 I haven't seen much that gives us any storms today/tonight. the rap sort of hints at it. the HRRR had some fake storms around 18-20z earlier.. brings OH valley stuff into central va late much weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I haven't seen much that gives us any storms today/tonight. the rap sort of hints at it. the HRRR had some fake storms around 18-20z earlier.. brings OH valley stuff into central va late much weakened. If anything, I am looking toward tonight... that's the best chance for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 If anything, I am looking toward tonight... that's the best chance for anything the stuff in oh/pa appears a bit northeast of what the hi res were showing.. might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN/CNTRL PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362... VALID 252127Z - 252300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ONGOING QLCS AND CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN OH INTO NWRN PA SHOULD MOVE E/SEWD THIS EVENING WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 23Z. DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATION OF CELLS CONTINUES TO FOSTER UPSCALE GROWTH WITH A QLCS APPEARING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM FAR NWRN PA SWWD INTO E-CNTRL OH. NRN PORTION OF THE LINE HAS ACCELERATED OFF LK ERIE AND WILL MERGE SHORTLY WITH DOWNSTREAM CELLS IN NWRN PA. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. WITH 30-40 KT W/NWLYS IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER IN PITTSBURGH/STATE COLLEGE VWP DATA...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING E/SEWD ACROSS MAINLY PA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I could see the counties bordering the Mason Dixon Line in MD being included in the downstream WW... but the ESE movement makes me hesitant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 I could see the counties bordering the Mason Dixon Line in MD being included in the downstream WW... but the ESE movement makes me hesitant dereho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 dereho! #QLCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 STW coming for NW VA and W MD it appears... hail to one inch and winds to 70 mph until 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 STW coming for NW VA and W MD it appears... hail to one inch and winds to 70 mph until 2am Alleghany/Carroll/Frederick/Washington in MD and Clarke/Frederick/Loudoun/Warren/Shenandoah in VA in the watch till 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Alleghany/Carroll/Frederick/Washington in MD and Clarke/Frederick/Loudoun/Warren/Shenandoah in VA in the watch till 2am Hey Yoda, do you think you can direct me to the EUSWX link to the June 4 line, I was curious about some particulars on that. Was talking about it with a guy the other day and wanted to verify some things. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Alleghany/Carroll/Frederick/Washington in MD and Clarke/Frederick/Loudoun/Warren/Shenandoah in VA in the watch till 2am Hey Yoda, do you think you can direct me to the EUSWX link to the June 4 line, I was curious about some particulars on that. Was talking about it with a guy the other day and wanted to verify some things. Thanks. If you google June 4, 2008 storms I think the Eastern thread will show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Alleghany/Carroll/Frederick/Washington in MD and Clarke/Frederick/Loudoun/Warren/Shenandoah in VA in the watch till 2am WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Given where the line is I'd think it would make it here but it might be on the late side of available ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Trajectory is fine. Bet we get pity warnings post midnight. Expectations are low so I could see this over-performing. Now bring me back down to earth Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Given where the line is I'd think it would make it here but it might be on the late side of available ingredients. I guess this would be the storms headed toward our area? BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA717 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 830 PM EDT* AT 712 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF IRWIN TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF IRWIN TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST NEWTON TO 16 MILES WEST OF BROWNSVILLE...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JEANNETTE... IRWIN... GREENSBURG... WEST NEWTON... BROWNSVILLE... NEW STANTON... PERRYOPOLIS... MOUNT PLEASANT... WALTERSBURG... DONEGAL... UNIONTOWN... HOPWOOD...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS AND HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCINGWIDESPREAD DAMAGE. MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Is this just radar background noise or outflow boundary in VA? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Trajectory is fine. Bet we get pity warnings post midnight. Expectations are low so I could see this over-performing. Now bring me back down to earth Ian. I want to say it'll just roll on thru but let's see what happens in the mtns. Hard to go out on a limb... But we should still have 1-2kish CAPE at least.. Probably well before 2a. Maybe by 11 or so around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Not sure Yoda on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Not very enthusiastic with regards to the segment moving S in PA. Latest radar trends show the mountains doing the deed of breaking up the intensity of the line. Moving SE in westerly flow is not your most optimal set up. Yes CAPE values are maintained and support may exist for damaging winds, however things are not overly supportive of a severe or even strong line to hit the DC/BWI metro region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 They're running thru some of the least favorable environment right now. I think if they last the next hour or so they'll make it and would prob have svr warnings locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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