yoda Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt. 0.0 good sir... nothing. No SLGT, no see text... LWX pulling back, no svr today per morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 fairly well mixed out today. might still get some storms later .. could use a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 fairly well mixed out today. might still get some storms later .. could use a break. I'd like to mow the lawn tomorrow morning after a full day of drying out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I'd like to mow the lawn tomorrow morning after a full day of drying out. Thanks. just mowed here and it wasn't too bad. A little too wet though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 just mowed here and it wasn't too bad. A little too wet though for sure. With a ton of huge trees in my neighbors' yards, my back yard takes a little while to dry out, especially with all the moisture in the ground right now. Front yard wouldn't be too bad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 still warm, lil less humid... 87/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 still warm, lil less humid... 87/60 59 dp at DCA.. autumn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 DP's still in the 70's right along the coast, front looks to backtrack a bit next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Things look to be juicing over in IL/IN/OH/WV...... any chance that keeps beefing up on the way towards us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Yay? FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC411 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-VAZ053-054-301615-/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0006.130630T2200Z-130702T0600Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH411 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA AND FAIRFAX.* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE. SINCE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. DUE TO WET CONDITIONS...THIS MUCH RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Pity meso.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 "NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE. SINCE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY" I said a couple days ago that my area would see 0.5" or less for the whole several-day period (0.0" thus far). I stand by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area. With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic. Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms. The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia. This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years. Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified. This certainly has my interest. EDIT: Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area. With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic. Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms. The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia. heavyrainfall.PNG This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years. Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified. This certainly has my interest. EDIT: Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 Wow if you are excited we better take cover, and build ourselves an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Cell NW of capon bridge is rotating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Cell NW of capon bridge is rotating Two funnel cloud reports along the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I'm on board. This train of moisture stretches all the way to the Caribbean...someone is going to get some serious rains over the next 24 - 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I'm on board. This train of moisture stretches all the way to the Caribbean...someone is going to get some serious rains over the next 24 - 36 hours. Upgradintg MehCon Factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 ..CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES ISOLATED TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL HAS LIKELY WANED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE COMMON/ EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TONIGHT IN AREAS SUCH AS NC/VA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS PA...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 ..CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES ISOLATED TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL HAS LIKELY WANED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE COMMON/ EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TONIGHT IN AREAS SUCH AS NC/VA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS PA...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. You conveniently left out how any severe probs skip right over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 You conveniently left out how any severe probs skip right over our area. I know its meh and doubtful... but thought I would post it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area. With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic. Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms. The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia. heavyrainfall.PNG This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years. Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified. This certainly has my interest. EDIT: Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 It better get its act together then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Swing and a miss! That little cell missed us to the west. I saw cracks in the dry garden beds this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Looks like we have 2"+ PWats over the region today. That will keep lapse rates in the crapper. Stronger speed shear expected for today though, so we'll probably see some better storm organization compared to this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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