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June 24-? severe weather discussion


Ian

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..CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES  

 

ISOLATED TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL HAS LIKELY WANED ACROSS A BROAD  

PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  

HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS  

ARE COMMON/ EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE  

THAT ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT  

IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY YIELD  

A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TONIGHT IN AREAS SUCH AS NC/VA  

AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS PA...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE  

POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

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..CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES    ISOLATED TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL HAS LIKELY WANED ACROSS A BROAD  PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS  ARE COMMON/ EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE  THAT ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT  IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY YIELD  A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TONIGHT IN AREAS SUCH AS NC/VA  AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS PA...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE  POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. 

You conveniently left out how any severe probs skip right over our area. 

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Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area.  With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic.  Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms.

 

The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia.  

 

attachicon.gifheavyrainfall.PNG

 

This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years.  Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified.  This certainly has my interest.

 

 

EDIT:  Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 

It better get its act together then.

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