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June 24-? severe weather discussion


Ian

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And an out of the blue tornado warning just issued

slacker

 

FUS51 KLWX 290000

TORLWX

MDC009-037-290045-

/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0020.130629T0000Z-130629T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

800 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

  SOUTHERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 759 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS NEAR SHERIDAN POINT...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  HOLLYWOOD...

  SAINT LEONARD CREEK...

  FLAG HARBOR...

  CUCKOLD CREEK...

  LUSBY...

  TOWN CREEK...

  CALVERT CLIFFS...

  CHESAPEAKE RANCH ESTATES...

  PATUXENT RIVER NAS...

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10" should be an easy reach IMO... good chance of storms tomorrow and Sunday... doubt we reach much higher unless training occurs like today

 

models dont have much instability tomorrow tho sref has pretty high odds of 1000 sfc cape 21-0z and the nam did awful yesterday for today's instability.  shear is OK -- definitely pretty borderline. might be some iso svr tho not sure we'll pull off 6 in a row. 

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models dont have much instability tomorrow tho sref has pretty high odds of 1000 sfc cape 21-0z and the nam did awful yesterday for today's instability. shear is OK -- definitely pretty borderline. might be some iso svr tho not sure we'll pull off 6 in a row.

Prob just afternoon storms... maybe an iso svr storm with gusts to 60

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I measured 2.25" on the dot from the last round. Accounting for a little splash would drop me a little, but I'm confident in saying I ended with just on either side of 3.5" on the day. With roads and lawns flooded in my neck of the woods, it would certainly make sense.

Local PWSs are showing just under 2". That seems really low for all of the local flooding here.

I guess I do need a gauge...

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Reporting in from the desert zone -- dry as a bone here of course but I just talked with my folks in northern Calvert and they have just been pummeled.  Said the water in their pool is almost at the top (so 3-4" of rain) and the mulch got washed out of their garden beds.  They are not happy.  And now it looks like even more developing to their west?

 

I will water my dry yard tomorrow morning.  I'm confident we will see no rain here.

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Reporting in from the desert zone -- dry as a bone here of course but I just talked with my folks in northern Calvert and they have just been pummeled.  Said the water in their pool is almost at the top (so 3-4" of rain) and the mulch got washed out of their garden beds.  They are not happy.  And now it looks like even more developing to their west?

 

I will water my dry yard tomorrow morning.  I'm confident we will see no rain here.

 

0.34" here on the day.  Lots of high topped storms all around us, but none here.

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With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt.

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With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt.

 

6 for 6 watch coming

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