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June 24-? severe weather discussion


Ian

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Reporting in from the desert zone -- dry as a bone here of course but I just talked with my folks in northern Calvert and they have just been pummeled.  Said the water in their pool is almost at the top (so 3-4" of rain) and the mulch got washed out of their garden beds.  They are not happy.  And now it looks like even more developing to their west?

 

I will water my dry yard tomorrow morning.  I'm confident we will see no rain here.

 

0.34" here on the day.  Lots of high topped storms all around us, but none here.

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With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt.

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With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt.

 

6 for 6 watch coming

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With 0z models amping up instability more gotta think SPC will slight again.. maybe in the RIC to Balt corridor-- ~I95 (or back to the BR) and southeast. Could be a bigger area but that one seems like the safest bet. Perhaps they'll stick with see text but well we know the drill at this pt.

 

0.0 good sir... nothing.  No SLGT, no see text... LWX pulling back, no svr today per morning AFD

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Yay?

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC411 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-VAZ053-054-301615-/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0006.130630T2200Z-130702T0600Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH411 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF  COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING  AREAS...IN MARYLAND...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN  BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE  DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS  CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA AND FAIRFAX.* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE  TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING  THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN  POSSIBLE. SINCE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME  AREAS...AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. DUE TO  WET CONDITIONS...THIS MUCH RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING  TO DEVELOP.
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"NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
  TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
  THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
  POSSIBLE. SINCE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME
  AREAS...AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY"

 

I said a couple days ago that my area would see 0.5" or less for the whole several-day period (0.0"  thus far).  I stand by it.

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Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area.  With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic.  Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms.

 

The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia.  

 

post-1389-0-12327600-1372625525_thumb.pn

 

This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years.  Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified.  This certainly has my interest.

 

 

EDIT:  Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 

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Pretty anamalous pattern setting up for the area.  With a blocking high off the eastern seaboard and a closed upper level low over the IL/IN border the stage is set for a conveyor belt of rich tropical moisture to stream into the Mid Atlantic.  Between the mountains and a stationary front draped over the region it will not take much to produce training showers and thunderstorms.

 

The water vapor satellite and 500mb analysis depicts this nicely, with precipitation already taking shape over Florida and eastern Georgia.  

 

attachicon.gifheavyrainfall.PNG

 

This precipitation will not be a gully washer for everyone, but those who do get under the line could experience flooding not seen for a few years.  Our flash flood guidance has been lowered by the recent thunderstorms and showers from last week, so the flash flood watch is certainly justified.  This certainly has my interest.

 

 

EDIT:  Going with a MehCon Factor of 6/10 

Wow if you are excited we better take cover, and build ourselves an ark.

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