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June 24-? severe weather discussion


Ian

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DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN PA...GARRETT COUNTY   MD AND NERN WV IS MOVING THROUGH RELATIVE MOISTURE MIN ATTM...BUT   WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER THETAE OVER ERN MTNS AND   ADJOINING PIEDMONT.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TOPPLED TREES HAVE BEEN   RECEIVED FROM PASSAGE OF THESE TSTMS.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF   THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...AS IS CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH MORE   WIDELY SCATTERED BLEND OF DISCRETE AND CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE MODES   FARTHER E TOWARD DE VALLEY AND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS.  UPSCALE   AGGREGATION OF COLD POOLS IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THIS   ACTIVITY...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL DAMAGING   WIND ON MESOBETA SCALE.   SOME SUPERCELL RISK ALSO EXISTS...PRIMARILY FROM EXTREME SRN PA SWD   ACROSS ERN WV PANHANDLE AND MD INTO NRN VA...THEN SHIFTING EWD OVER   DELMARVA/NJ.  THAT AREA LIES BENEATH ENHANCED BELT OF MID-UPPER   LEVEL FLOW THAT OFFSETS VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENOUGH TO   GENERATE 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  PRECONVECTIVE AIR   MASS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SFC   DEW POINTS 70S F IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTING TO   MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG E OF BLUE RIDGE. 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1292.html

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