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June 24-? severe weather discussion


Ian

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I might be more peeved about a DC split if I wasn't already sitting on 6" of rain in June, including 2/3" yesterday.

 

Kinda how I feel.  I'm probably sitting at between 5-6" for the month, with 1.5" coming yesterday.  It's actually been quite dry IMBY for the last couple weeks, but after yesterday I'm not at all upset about missing out on some heavy stuff.

 

Oh...woo storms.

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That was probably the best storm since the Derecho back when. I could see it building up to the WSW of me and by the time I got done cutting the yard, the thunder was faint and got louder and louder. Finally the clouds took over the sun and saw some decent CG strikes. Then the outflow boundary came in and then the rain started about 10 mins later. Then the skies opened up, it was ripping heavy rain sideways at times with the winds gusting to around 55 mph or so. Some very small pea sized hail fell for about 35 seconds. then it let up some, then picked up again.  It was pretty vivid lightning and really loud thunder claps, that you would hear in the SE US. Once it was done, trash cans where everywhere and quite a few trees down in and just outside of Leesburg.

Pretty wild storm.

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Few storm reports from the area:

 

 

06/24/2013 0330 PM

3 miles W of Leesburg, Loudoun County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by County official.


            Multiple trees down on Woodburn Road between Stagecoach
            Lane and sydnor hill court closing Road.





06/24/2013 0400 PM

Leesburg, Loudoun County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by law enforcement.


            Numerous tree limbs down from SW to NE Leesburg... most
            1 2 inch to 1 inch in diameter... a few good sized limbs
            3 to 5 inches in diameter. Some power lines down. No
            structural damage.

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nam seems to be moving toward the gfs for thursday.. some timing issues maybe but looks pretty solid from this range. euro appears a bit less potent based on my maps.

 

post-1615-0-56455100-1372131324_thumb.gi

 

post-1615-0-51573300-1372131342_thumb.gi

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SPC not impressed... pity Day 3 SLGT

I think you've been spoiled or something. Day 3 30%'s and moderate risks are pretty unusual around here. 15% is usually where our risks start (or not even slight risked at all). Most times (barring our higher end days) we don't even get our 30% until 1730z the day before or the day of. (Not saying we WILL get 30%).

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06z GFS likes the idea of a strengthening SFC low in NW PA and western NY on Thursday that, in addition to a lee trough, will help back winds at the surface in the greater DC/MD/NoVA area. Winds are still a bit meh in the mid/upper levels (25-30 kts) Thursday afternoon, but the low-level shear looks good once storms get cranking.

 

post-96-0-29567300-1372158754_thumb.png

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