mappy Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The back of my house faces due west with a clear view of the sky. Cannot wait to watch storms roll in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 its 1:00. Where are my woostorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Should be getting our MD shortly... good amount of STW's from PBZ and I would assume that is where our storms are coming from later on It was just issued lol. We just have to hope the stuff out front doesn't much things up (it probably will) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...PA...MD...SERN LOWERMI...DC...WV...NRN VA...EXTREME SRN PORTIONS WRN NY.CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 281702Z - 281900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...WW IS REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS SRN PA...MD...NRN VA ANDWV...AND ANOTHER WW IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS BROADER DISCUSSIONAREA AS TRENDS INDICATE.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BUILDING FROMSERN LOWER MI EWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO N-CENTRALAPPALACHIANS. INITIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOULD BECOMEMORE DENSE...AND CONVECTION MORE INTENSE...WHILE MOVING INTOINCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGINGWIND...WITH OCNL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN DECREASINGLY CAPPED AIR MASS...ON BOTHSIDES OF ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD FROM SFC LOW OVERUPPER HUDSON RIVER REGION. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S F...BUTINCREASING TO NEAR 70 AROUND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DE VALLEYREGIONS...COMBINE WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING OF PRECONVECTIVE AIRMASS TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCSTSOUNDINGS. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE MOSTLY WLY AND NEARLYUNIDIRECTIONAL...INDICATING PREDOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION WITHDAMAGING GUSTS BEING GREATEST CONCERN. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES WITHSWD EXTENT FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PORTIONS WV AND NRN VA...WITHEFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES PEAKING AROUND 50 KT OVER LATTER AREAS.MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/GROWTH APPEARS TO BE ONNRN FRINGES OF STRONGER SHEAR BELT...WHERE TSTMS HAVE COALESCEDACROSS PORTIONS SERN OH...NRN WV PANHANDLE AND SWRN PA. ANY SUCHEVOLUTION WOULD DRIVE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS EWD TO ESEWD ASTRIDEPA/MD BORDER REGION...EVENTUALLY WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT CHESAPEAKEBAY/DE RIVER REGIONS...EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just took the little one and dog for a walk. Humid as f***. Were the windows down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Woo storms! Let's do this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 5 for 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 5 for 5 With incredibly little to show for it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Wtf...weird watch. Does not include the Metro areas. I guess they want to see evolution into the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 With incredibly little to show for it so far. Today's the day. #faithintheboomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 SSWatch ends just shy of metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Wtf...weird watch. Does not include the Metro areas. I guess they want to see evolution into the afternoon?FailNext Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Wtf...weird watch. Does not include the Metro areas. I guess they want to see evolution into the afternoon? Give it time. No need to alarm people so early like the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Fail Next Given how many watches we've had the last few days I don't see why they don't just include the entire area. It's as good a threat as any day the past few days. Trajectory looks good for us too. Have to wonder if that was ultimately LWX that decided that or SPC. Seems silly to have another watch later that includes a small area from the metro areas to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Give it time. No need to alarm people so early like the last couple days I don't even think people are even paying attention anymore anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Given how many watches we've had the last few days I don't see why they don't just include the entire area. It's as good a threat as any day the past few days. Trajectory looks good for us too. Have to wonder if that was ultimately LWX that decided that or SPC. Seems silly to have another watch later that includes a small area from the metro areas to the coast.Sure well get another east but not sure why they didn't make it bigger. Would be nice if it held till near dark but seems doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-021-023-043-290000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0386.130628T1710Z-130629T0000Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY FREDERICK GARRETT WASHINGTON $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC001-003-007-009-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-049- 051-057-061-065-069-071-073-075-077-083-085-087-091-093-095-097- 101-103-105-107-290000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0386.130628T1710Z-130629T0000Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BERKELEY BRAXTON BROOKE CALHOUN DODDRIDGE GILMER GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LEWIS MARION MARSHALL MINERAL MONONGALIA MORGAN OHIO PENDLETON PLEASANTS POCAHONTAS PRESTON RANDOLPH RITCHIE ROANE TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER UPSHUR WEBSTER WETZEL WIRT WOOD $$ ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...CTP... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-015-043-047-061-069-079-091-107-113-125-137-139-157-165- 171-187-540-660-790-820-840-290000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0386.130628T1710Z-130629T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE HIGHLAND LOUDOUN MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE HARRISONBURG STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-003-009-013-021-041-051-055-057-059-061-067-087-099-111- 125-129-290000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0386.130628T1710Z-130629T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SOMERSET WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Wtf...weird watch. Does not include the Metro areas. I guess they want to see evolution into the afternoon? A second Blue Box should be coming out by 3:00 p.m. probably will be going until 10:00 p.m. for DC/Baltimore metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Ian! Supercells! DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SWRN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Derecho, long track's or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Ian! Supercells! DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SWRN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. #wooshear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Derecho, long track's or bust. Prob more MCS or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Could be the next watch will have higher probabilities since it would cover the 30 wind zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 A second Blue Box should be coming out by 3:00 p.m. probably will be going until 10:00 p.m. for DC/Baltimore metro Super secret NWS/SPC conference call with OEMHS? I wonder if they might have done this to word the metro area watch differently for any reason (large event, different threats etc) - Perhaps given that we are in a 30% wind risk they think a more organized wind threat might evolve east of the current STW and thus want to have it be a separate watch. either way...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Could be the next watch will have higher probabilities since it would cover the 30 wind zone omg you ninja'd me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I heard you guys were gonna get storms so i came to visit. 95 sucks. Its cloudy. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 omg you ninja'd me.PDS -potentially depressing situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 PDS -potentially depressing situation I think also they want to see evolution of supposed MCS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Super secret NWS/SPC conference call with OEMHS? I wonder if they might have done this to word the metro area watch differently for any reason (large event, different threats etc) - Perhaps given that we are in a 30% wind risk they think a more organized wind threat might evolve east of the current STW and thus want to have it be a separate watch. either way...lol Two reasons come to mind: As you said, higher risk area so the watch probabilities will be tweaked. My thinking is that higher probabilities for Combined Wind/Hail. Later arrival of the storms would mean that stretching a watch from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean isn't really smart. Two smaller watches will allow for better watch county notification and clearing of counties behind the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just took the little one and dog for a walk. Humid as f***. We're going to get stormforced today. Dews are actually going up, unlike some of the prior days. edit - on my station at least. Looks like the airports are more similar to the other days this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.