Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Still a fair amount of obs with dews aoa 70 - let's see what that muck out west does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Eskimo Joe is our resident naysayer these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Remain vigilant. 81/66 here with a down sloping west wind feels great out there today, not the stormy kind of day. Was out riding early this morning, wasn't overly humid. Would like dews >69. (If I want storms, if not keep them way down) Again, not end all, I'll remain vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That little batch already looks like it is dying out, especially on the southern side. Visible looks pretty good. All the WRFs (NCEP and locally run) all like some storms in here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That little batch already looks like it is dying out, especially on the southern side. Visible looks pretty good. All the WRFs (NCEP and locally run) all like some storms in here this afternoon. This is the only time of the year when the Apps do us a solid. The rest of the time they are a snow squall stealer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That little batch already looks like it is dying out, especially on the southern side. Visible looks pretty good. All the WRFs (NCEP and locally run) all like some storms in here this afternoon.cT's are down, and we have nary a cap this morning. Convection is a good bet, as I said CAPE trailing the fading batch is substantial + solid shear values. Sticking with my call, CHO to Pax looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Is my new home gonna be destroyed today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 DCA 11am reading of 85/66... pretty good start for a severe day. Forecast inverted V soundings good for enhancing downburst winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 WE ARE GOING TO DIE!!! Look at this thing that popped up over us on SPCs main page!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 WE ARE GOING TO DIE!!! Look at this thing that popped up over us on SPCs main page!!!!! Bomb exploded on the eastern shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 WE ARE GOING TO DIE!!! Look at this thing that popped up over us on SPCs main page!!!!! This is experimental. Don't panic haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Everyone on earth who like weather has posted that starburst in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Everyone on earth who like weather has posted that starburst in the last hour. COME ON, PEOPLE! TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 COME ON, PEOPLE! TAKE COVER NOW! 2000+ cape much of the area.. we all gonna die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Maybe I have just gotten unlucky but does anyone else agree a good hailstorm like ones seen in the midwest around here are incredibly rare? When have we ever gotten 45% hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Maybe I have just gotten unlucky but does anyone else agree a good hailstorm like ones seen in the midwest around here are incredibly rare? When have we ever gotten 45% hail? We get hail a lot more than you think. Some call it sleet in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 We are seeing some development in WV now. Should be our action perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looking good on shear - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 LWX AFD says surface flow may be backed to the S or SE east of the BR for chance of isolated tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 The NAM sucked with the instability forecasts from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just looked at CAPE in GREarth - looking good! many areas getting over 3K SBCAPE now. Looks a bit lower on SPC meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just looked at CAPE in GREarth - looking good! many areas getting over 3K SBCAPE now. Looks a bit lower on SPC meso.GRE Always seems to overestimate the Cape a bit, but we have ample instability nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 1630 remains same... 2/15/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 showers popping up locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 ..UPPER-OH VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PRESENT E OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES. AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF THIS RICH MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA TO 2000-3000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS. LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...LEE TROUGH...AND FAVORED TERRAIN WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDING THE WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE THE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND ABOVE-MENTIONED BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW. WHILE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 new storm outlook. 70% for 20-00Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I'll go with a MehCon Factor of 3/10 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just took the little one and dog for a walk. Humid as f***. We're going to get stormforced today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Half decent looking activity west of here in WV, western PA and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Should be getting our MD shortly... good amount of STW's from PBZ and I would assume that is where our storms are coming from later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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