DDweatherman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 A bit surprised at the 30 wind risk introduced. Best chance from DMW to BWI to ESN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Pity Meso: 000 ACUS11 KWNS 271705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271704 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271704Z - 271900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV SHIFTING NEWD FROM NRN VA. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE NEAR THE MD PANHANDLE WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN VA AHEAD OF THE BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED WELL INTO THE 80S DOWNSTREAM OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A NARROW BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS /AROUND 30-35 KT/ WAS SAMPLED IN CCX/BGM VWP DATA AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED IN AKQ VWP DATA SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SETUP MAY YIELD SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 84/72 at 1... humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks to be some very weak rotation in the S PA line/cells that were just warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Would think tomorrow will get slighted maybe as far north as DC but more likely over C/S Va area or east. Trough is nice.. frontal position tricky. Winner winner on the new Day 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Winner winner on the new Day 2...All I do is win The flow tomorrow is solid.. Best of week prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Breaking the streak red boxed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Um... okay? WW 377 TORNADO DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 271800Z - 280200Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NW ABE/ALLENTOWN PA/ - 50S DOV/DOVER DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /32NNW ETX - 4NE SBY/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like some broad scale rotation in the radar returns down near EZF heading NEward. Not talking tornado here, more like indication there's a s/w passing through. Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Breaking the streak red boxed Just barely though... guess it counts... very surprised we got red box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Pity Red Box until 10:00 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 200 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 TORNADO WATCH 377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DEC001-003-005-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075- 077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER UNION YORK VAC013-059-107-600-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON FAIRFAX LOUDOUN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFAX ANZ430-431-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542- 280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 showers are seemingly stalled around here; been on the fringe of some for the last hour here. Not much rain (.12 so far), but the temp is down to 72F..... sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Pity Red Box until 10:00 p.m. I really don't see why the red box... blue box with mention of few tors would have made better sense IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HUMIDITY...COUPLED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A FEW...AT LEAST WEAK...TORNADOES IN DISCRETE STORMS. PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 30/20 TOR probs... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like some broad scale rotation in the radar returns down near EZF heading NEward. Not talking tornado here, more like indication there's a s/w passing through. Anyone else see that? Yes. I noticed that on radar also. Didn't mention it. What implications does that have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yes. I noticed that on radar also. Didn't mention it. What implications does that have? SPC watch disco mentioned it as a mid-level trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 never saw the Sun today down here. heavy mist falls from time to time. central and northern Maryland seems to be the spot to watch this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Radar looks poo poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Storm just popped up right over the Columbia area. Decent downpour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Staring at the pool that's not quite mine yet... It's hot out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Staring at the pool that's not quite mine yet... It's hot out You have to test everything before you buy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Staring at the pool that's not quite mine yet... It's hot out It's your birthday, so you can test it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Staring at the pool that's not quite mine yet... It's hot out The pool conveyed? Thought they would take that with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just got back from Cunningham Falls at the lake. It was mostly cloudy up there all day. My car temp said 79. Got back home to clouds and 82. Nice day at the lake the water was refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The pool conveyed? Thought they would take that with them Who takes a pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 come on people... TAKE COVER NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 come on people... TAKE COVER NOW TOR in Perry/Juniata counties (PA), heading straight for LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 There really was no need for this red box. Most areas south of I-70 won't even see a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.