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NNE Summer 2013 Thread


klw

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I have a tentative tee time for 4 tomorrow at Fox Ridge. However, I think the "see text" may cause me to cancel. Tough time of year to leave at the end of my shift when storms are around and everyone is on vacation.

 

They do a lot better job with drainage there, If you can get out you would have little issues there as there would just be a few wet areas, But nothing like Springbrook, It could be quite miserable for us their if they decide to play, Lost balls in the middle of fairways and fat shots hitting of muddy areas, Its an old farm so it is nothing like Fox Ridge or your course Spring Meadows as far as drainage and turf

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At least through 7am it looks like the rainfall was classic H85 SE flow climo with a big difference between east of the Spine and west of it, especially down in central/southern VT, with over 1" in Orange and Windsor counties and then downsloping to only a half inch in parts of Rutland and Addison Counties.  Then precipitation amounts blossom again over the SE slopes of the Adirondacks. 

 

Jeffersonville (Smugglers Notch/Mansfield area) had the highest report of 1.80" as of 7am but I think that includes a good bit of rain from that isolated cell I posted last night.  That thing sat there for a while and probably gave them a 1" head start. 

 

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1.17" so far today and 8.67" on the month. This is now my 2nd wettest month since I've moved here (10.30" July 2009).

Got about .10" from the evening showers as they went west and east. I don't keep records like you but I seem to miss so many showers and storms this month. My pond is not even full. Quick figuring in my head I think I am around 4.50" for the month.

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Got about .10" from the evening showers as they went west and east. I don't keep records like you but I seem to miss so many showers and storms this month. My pond is not even full. Quick figuring in my head I think I am around 4.50" for the month.

heh...I've had almost 3.5" just this week. I'm actually enjoying all of the rain.

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Wow, been lucky here , dry all evening so far. Would enjoy being shut out for the rest of the weekend.

Yeah it just keeps raining...heavy at times. MVL has picked up almost another half inch in the past 75-90 minutes and I'd imagine its about the same here.

Cooled it off though as we are back down to 61-62 in heavy rain.

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Wow torrential rain. Just pouring and not moving anywhere.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

VTZ003-005-006-008-009-016>018-290315-

EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-

LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-

WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-

1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL

ADDISON...LAMOILLE...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN

CHITTENDEN AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES...

AT 1006 PM EDT...A LINEAR LINE OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH LOCALLY BRIEF

HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OCCURING BETWEEN NORTH TROY AND MIDDLEBURY. EACH

SHOWER WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH BUT THE LINE WAS STATIONARY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM OR SO.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR

DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...

MIDDLEBURY...EAST MIDDLEBURY...BRISTOL...NEW HAVEN MILLS...SOUTH

STARKSBORO...HUNTINGTON CENTER...HANKSVILLE...HUNTINGTON...SOUTH

DUXBURY...WEST BOLTON...JONESVILLE...UNDERHILL STATE PARK...

LAT...LON 4500 7249 4500 7215 4386 7309 4393 7332

$$

SLW

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Awesome...more training thunderstorms. Pouring again and just riding from south to north over us here on RT108 in Stowe. Looks like J.Spin got in on the same narrow train.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Indeed, it’s been pouring out there at times, with another inch plus in the gauge.  It’s pushing the rainfall toward 11” for the month and now that final cell in the train is hitting us with heavy rain:

 

28JUN13A.gif

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This was a fascinating line. It was a great night in BTV - nary a shower or sprinkle. The sun was out. It was great. Yet it's POURING on the south/southwest wind over in Stowe. 

 

Crazy. 

 

Oh hey, 100MB mixed layer cape will be 500-1000kj with surface based CAPE in the 1500-2000 range, along with LIs in the -4 to -6  range and pwats at 1-2" later today. SO yea, not gonna rain at all. 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VT...CT...WRN MAINE...ERN NY...NH...MA

EXCEPT SERN AREAS...RI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291722Z - 291915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS

DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC SVR

HAIL...THOUGH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT UNFOCUSED PATTERN

ATTM...WITH DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL ZONE DRIFTING EWD THROUGH HUDSON

VALLEY REGION TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW

LOCATED BETWEEN LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND MONTREAL. THERMAL GRADIENT OVER

WRN MAINE REPRESENTS DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE BEHIND EARLIER

ACTIVITY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SLOT OVER MOST OF ERN NY AND

NEW ENGLAND W OF MAINE...AND BEHIND CLOUD COVER RELATED TO

EARLIER/ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO WARM

INTO MID-UPPER 70S F AND LOW 80S BETWEEN CENTRAL NY CONVECTION AND

MAINE...ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATING MLCINH ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS FORMED FROM

CENTRAL NY ENEWD TO CENTRAL NH AND NERN VT...ALSO ON EITHER SIDE OF

FRONT.

OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR SVR E OF

FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH FRONTAL

ZONE...THUS BOOSTING BUOYANCY FROM W-E. ADDITIONAL PRECONVECTIVE

INSOLATION SHOULD YIELD BROAD SWATH OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER

ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO NEAR LONGITUDE OF WRN MAINE

BORDER...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO WRN MAINE. FAVORABLE BUOYANCY

WILL BE OVERLAPPED BY INCREASINGLY AND SEASONALLY STG DEEP SHEAR

WITH EWD EXTENT...BENEATH MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT IS SHIFTING NEWD

ACROSS REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT SHOULD REMAIN

COMMON FROM CT-NH AND WRN MAINE. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW

WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT IN

LOWEST 2 KM OR SO WHILE INCREASING MARKEDLY ABOVE 1 KM. THIS YIELDS

SLIGHTLY LOOPED TO NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS...AS EVIDENT IN

VWP AND FCST SOUNDINGS. SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...AS WELL AS

ORGANIZED/MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS POSSIBLE.

CONFLUENCE LINE AND RELATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO ITS E MAY

REPRESENT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL GIVEN

ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINICITY AND BACKED FLOW WITH WHICH APCHG STORMS

WOULD INTERACT.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/29/2013

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