dendrite Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Pretty wet, miserable day at home, but not much in CON. Have had 0.84" through the tipper and the current 68F is the max so far...but the sun is trying to peak through so maybe we'll still scrape 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Expected to get doused once again, having a field visit to the forest we manage around Pineland, in fact all within a mile of GYX. One 2-minute spell of moderate rain and a few sprinkles was all. Radar indicates that 20 miles west got a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 There are worse places to be on a Monday morning. A balmy 54F up here now. I will be hiking the ridgeline on Saturday on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Expected to get doused once again, having a field visit to the forest we manage around Pineland, in fact all within a mile of GYX. One 2-minute spell of moderate rain and a few sprinkles was all. Radar indicates that 20 miles west got a lot more. Trace at the office, 1.48" at Bridgton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 0.15" here yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Trace at the office, 1.48" at Bridgton. IZG area wins in all seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 A couple rainbow shots from this afternoon...perfect day for them with occassional light to briefly moderate showers on NW flow with breaks of sun between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Feeling pretty fall like tonite. Temps dropping fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Caught this tonight at home in Winooski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 That last pic is awesome. Almost like a painting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Yeah the virga and rainbow is awesome... BTV even caught a double rainbow from the airport. Those things were everywhere this evening with the light fall-like showers/sprinkles/virga and lowering sun angle. Awesome sunset too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 A fantastic day....sunshine, low humidity, after a morning start in the 40s, it looks like most climbed to around 70-73F range this afternoon. Another shot of last night's sunset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Cooler morning for me this AM than last...down to 48.0F with some fog building up from the valley rapidly. That will probably about do it on the temp drop . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I re-tweaked the rainbow a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Well...I've played around with using an IR temperature sensor for a nighttime cloud sensor before, but a close lightning strike fried my electronics. I've finally gotten it going again. The sensor looks like this inside of its acrylic enclosure... I tested it this afternoon with variably cloudy skies. You can clearly see when a cloud passes directly overhead as the sky temp jumps from 10-20F to near 60F. The 2m temp during this time was basically 70F +/- 3F. My single board computer is logging the data once per minute, but I may increase that to every 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Brian, did you have an engineer background? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Brian, did you have an engineer background?No...I've always been into the instrumentation aspect though. My not-really-a-twin-twin with the same name is an electrical engineer...I believe he lived in Mass too. If someone was to Google search us I could see how our work could be intertwined. I left the sensor out all night hoping for fog, but didn't get any like we did the previous night. I was hoping to see both the 2m and sky temp show similar readings if the fog was thick enough. Luckily this guy left the sensor alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 OK, since we’ve had some time to discuss the plot of the Mt. Mansfield snowpack data over the past ~60 years, I’ve added the plot again below, this time with a linear trend line fit to the data (black line), the equation for that line, the associated Coefficient of determination (R2) and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), and horizontal dashed lines indicating the predicted snow depth days (SDD) for various seasons: 1) the 1955-1956 season, since it’s roughly 60 years ago, the length of time referenced in the Powder Magazine article with respect to changes in snowpack at “East Coast” ski areas, and the first season for which there is essentially complete snowpack data from the Mt. Mansfield Stake, 2) the 2012-2013 season, representing the present day, and 3) the 2100-2101 season, since that is the future time period specifically referenced in the article from Powder Magazine. I’ll start with the trend line. As tamarack noted, the data look nearly flat, or a tiny bit upward since 1980 (or even for the entirety of the time period shown): J.Spin: Great data. Looks nearly flat since 1980, or a tiny bit upward. Hard to extend it farther back, due to the under-performing 1st 10 years and overperforming next 12-14. A fairly lengthy thread on the climate change forum (last year?) touched on snowfall (less so on snowpack) in the face of warming, and while no consensus was reached, IIRC, folks who I respect (orh wxman in particular) thought that the north country would hold steady and might even gain due to heavier precip, while locations in the MA might fall off the south edge of snowiness. Despite the variability in those earlier decades, I’ve included them in the fit because it covers the “last 60 years” referenced in the article with respect to snowpack. How “real” is that line? Well, we’ve got a couple of statistical parameters that can be used to objectively asses that. The first is the Coefficient of determination (R2), which essentially tells us how well the data points fit the curve. A value of 1 is a perfect fit, and a value of 0 is a horrible fit, so with a R2 of 0.033, the data aren’t described very well by a linear equation. Other types of curves do provide better fits, but since I’m not willing to assume anything beyond a linear trend here, that’s what we’ll have to go with. The next parameter we’ve got for assessment of the data is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), which is a test for whether or not there is a linear correlation between two variables – in this case that’s year (x) and SDD (y). Again, 1 is a perfect correlation, and 0 is no correlation, so the value of 0.181 obtained from the data is not great, but it’s certainly not zero. If you click on the link for r above at Wikipedia, you’ll see in a figure on the right side of the page that they give a nice visual representation of what r values are associated with various scatter plots of data. So if we’re trying to be objective about this, there isn’t any strong evidence to say that we’ve got a statistically verifiable increase in SDD over time at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, but since we’ve got a “trend” in the data, we’ll have a little fun with that. Using the trend in the data, there’s been a 22.5% increase in the SDD from the 7,821 SDD in 1955-1956 to the 9,578 SDD in the current day, and if the trend continues, there will be an additional 55.8% increase to 12,183 SDD by the 2,100-2,101 season. Apparently long-term extrapolation is quite acceptable in the climatology field, so I’ll address a quote from the article: “On our current track, only four of the major 14 resorts in the region (East Coast) will be economically viable by 2100.” “Economically Viable” could probably mean anything, but if we can assume that Stowe (on the eastern flanks of Mt. Mansfield) is one of “the major 14 resorts in the region”, it’s hard to imagine how they’re going to take any sort of hit in their “economic viability” with a 55.8% increase in at least high elevation “snowpack” over the next 85 or so years. Shouldn’t people be flocking to the resort to enjoy all that extra snow with an average of 12,000+ SDD a season, especially since there will only be three other resorts in existence in the region? Fun and games aside, realistically, the SDD at the Mt. Mansfield Stake are probably flat, but based on the trends and statistics shown above, it would be fun to see how a strong argument is made for snowpack loss at that site going forward (using actual data and not just modeling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 J.Spin: Great data! Many thanks. My guess is that if you cherrypicked just the past 30 yr, the line would be almost in the same place but the R-squared would be many times higher. That half of the data would appear to eliminate 4 of 5 seasons with 12,000+ and 8 of 11 with less than 6,000, and do similar things to all the outliers. Another nice cool morning with the low in the upper 40s. That's 6 of the last 7 mornings under 50. We've been below my 15-yr avg for 20 straight days and 26 of 27, though 8/9 was only -0.2F in the muggy rain. Even if summer comes back hard this coming week, I think August will finish closer to -2 than -1. (It's currently running -4.3.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 OK, since we’ve had some time to discuss the plot of the Mt. Mansfield snowpack data over the past ~60 years, I’ve added the plot again below, this time with a linear trend line fit to the data (black line), the equation for that line, the associated Coefficient of determination (R2) and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), and horizontal dashed lines indicating the predicted snow depth days (SDD) for various seasons: 1) the 1955-1956 season, since it’s roughly 60 years ago, the length of time referenced in the Powder Magazine article with respect to changes in snowpack at “East Coast” ski areas, and the first season for which there is essentially complete snowpack data from the Mt. Mansfield Stake, 2) the 2012-2013 season, representing the present day, and 3) the 2100-2101 season, since that is the future time period specifically referenced in the article from Powder Magazine. I’ll start with the trend line. As tamarack noted, the data look nearly flat, or a tiny bit upward since 1980 (or even for the entirety of the time period shown): Despite the variability in those earlier decades, I’ve included them in the fit because it covers the “last 60 years” referenced in the article with respect to snowpack. How “real” is that line? Well, we’ve got a couple of statistical parameters that can be used to objectively asses that. The first is the Coefficient of determination (R2), which essentially tells us how well the data points fit the curve. A value of 1 is a perfect fit, and a value of 0 is a horrible fit, so with a R2 of 0.033, the data aren’t described very well by a linear equation. Other types of curves do provide better fits, but since I’m not willing to assume anything beyond a linear trend here, that’s what we’ll have to go with. The next parameter we’ve got for assessment of the data is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), which is a test for whether or not there is a linear correlation between two variables – in this case that’s year (x) and SDD (y). Again, 1 is a perfect correlation, and 0 is no correlation, so the value of 0.181 obtained from the data is not great, but it’s certainly not zero. If you click on the link for r above at Wikipedia, you’ll see in a figure on the right side of the page that they give a nice visual representation of what r values are associated with various scatter plots of data. So if we’re trying to be objective about this, there isn’t any strong evidence to say that we’ve got a statistically verifiable increase in SDD over time at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, but since we’ve got a “trend” in the data, we’ll have a little fun with that. Using the trend in the data, there’s been a 22.5% increase in the SDD from the 7,821 SDD in 1955-1956 to the 9,578 SDD in the current day, and if the trend continues, there will be an additional 55.8% increase to 12,183 SDD by the 2,100-2,101 season. Apparently long-term extrapolation is quite acceptable in the climatology field, so I’ll address a quote from the article: “On our current track, only four of the major 14 resorts in the region (East Coast) will be economically viable by 2100.” “Economically Viable” could probably mean anything, but if we can assume that Stowe (on the eastern flanks of Mt. Mansfield) is one of “the major 14 resorts in the region”, it’s hard to imagine how they’re going to take any sort of hit in their “economic viability” with a 55.8% increase in at least high elevation “snowpack” over the next 85 or so years. Shouldn’t people be flocking to the resort to enjoy all that extra snow with an average of 12,000+ SDD a season, especially since there will only be three other resorts in existence in the region? Fun and games aside, realistically, the SDD at the Mt. Mansfield Stake are probably flat, but based on the trends and statistics shown above, it would be fun to see how a strong argument is made for snowpack loss at that site going forward (using actual data and not just modeling). Assuming Global Warming is occurring, the slight uptick in snow would be expected. If the theories of Global Warming increasing moisture and temperature is correct for the NE US, you would assume an INCREASE in snow in the short term as warmer temperatures imply more moisture. However it would only rise to a certain extent before becoming too warm, thus the snow falling as rain. So you would expect an increase in the short term, followed by a marked decrease in the long term. Again, assuming Global Warming will indeed continue to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Assuming Global Warming is occurring, the slight uptick in snow would be expected. If the theories of Global Warming increasing moisture and temperature is correct for the NE US, you would assume an INCREASE in snow in the short term as warmer temperatures imply more moisture. However it would only rise to a certain extent before becoming too warm, thus the snow falling as rain. So you would expect an increase in the short term, followed by a marked decrease in the long term. Again, assuming Global Warming will indeed continue to occur. I would bet that in more southern ski resorts or at least in the valleys of more southern areas, they're already on the downswing of it becoming too warm following somewhat of an increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Assuming Global Warming is occurring, the slight uptick in snow would be expected. If the theories of Global Warming increasing moisture and temperature is correct for the NE US, you would assume an INCREASE in snow in the short term as warmer temperatures imply more moisture. However it would only rise to a certain extent before becoming too warm, thus the snow falling as rain. So you would expect an increase in the short term, followed by a marked decrease in the long term. Again, assuming Global Warming will indeed continue to occur. This is exactly my understanding as well...I think we get to a point where our winters keep turning wetter but with tighter snow lines. Like a significant snowpack above 2000ft, with a sharp decrease below that...or basically a higher discrepancy in snow depths than we see now between the low elevations and the high elevations if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Two weeks ago I hiked Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines and endured foggy conditions from just below the top of the headwalls and upward. Certain that I was being ripped off of impressive views, I decided to repeat the adventure on a sunny day. That day was today. I wanted to view sunrise from Tuckerman's headwall, which meant a ridiculous wake-up time of 1:45am. Quick shower and chocolate doughnut and off on my way. Boots on trail at 3:45 with a trailhead temperature of 56F. Uneventful hike in the darkness. I noticed the sky brightening behind me but it was still too dark as I passed Hermit Lake to turn off the headlamp - I did notice that the skies were clear up top and gave a silent "hellyeah!" Up the ravine headwall I went and off went the headlamp. It was quite breezy in the open so I put on my long-sleeved shirt. Soon the sun appeared over the Wildcats. Beautiful views all around, but it was brisk up top ... 45F with a 25mph wind. I made my descent down Lion Head and was wishing I had some gloves while above treeline. Once in the shelter of the trees it was very comfortable. I then made my way over to Huntington Ravine. Again, perfect conditions. Still the toughest trail I've encountered. I popped out on the Alpine Garden. Pretty breezy still but it was warming with temp of 54F. There was a race of some sort on the MWN Auto Road and there was the sound of a loudspeaker blaring through the air. Disappointing, and I heard that cacophony until I was clear on the other side of Boott Spur. Still, the Alpine Garden Trail leading back to Tuckerman Ravine is one of my favorites. I considered heading to Mt Monroe but several factors led me to nix the idea. Instead, I took the Davis Path for the long trek back to the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center. Made it back to the trailhead at 2:06 ... a beautiful day in the White Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Glad you had a good hike in the Whites! Nice shots too! I took a much easier and shorter trek along the Mt. Mansfield ridge line (1.4 miles each way). I had some family visiting so it was nice to go out on the roof of Vermont. I also took a video up there, which I will post here on Sunday: http://igg.me/at/jgdreams . That is my Indiegogo campaign for a full studio album as I am a singer-songwriter as well. That is like a Kickstarter basically. Anyway a few photos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Sweet pics, eyewall! Certainly a five-star CoC day yesterday in NNE with a few more to follow. I happened to take Monday thru Wednesday off from work. What to do ... what to do ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Sweet pics, eyewall! Certainly a five-star CoC day yesterday in NNE with a few more to follow. I happened to take Monday thru Wednesday off from work. What to do ... what to do ... Going up to the Lake tonight into Wednesday. Maybe next year we can do a hike...I'm really wanting to conquer some of those trails you've hiked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Going up to the Lake tonight into Wednesday. Maybe next year we can do a hike...I'm really wanting to conquer some of those trails you've hiked. Sure, I can hook you up with a memorable adventure! Enjoy your stay in friendly NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Great shots guys! Jayhawk you are an animal man...145am wake up to hike is pretty burly. That's a true alpine start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Great sunset potential this eve with clear skies and cirrus overcast over NNE. Underside of clouds should be really nice around 8pm if this works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Great sunset potential this eve with clear skies and cirrus overcast over NNE. Underside of clouds should be really nice around 8pm if this works out Crystal clear over this way....wonderful evening but nothing for suns rays to reflect off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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