Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

General Thunderstorm Discussion: Late June

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I didn't consider today a disappointment at all, I was pleasantly surprised. It's the best I've seen up close since June 2nd.

 

I uploaded some pictures here: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152977925995220.1073741827.799395219&type=1&l=c3315a871d

And a video here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152977505065220&l=2411202199302390486

 

These were all from Woburn this afternoon. I can't figure out how to add something to the gallery on this site. Maybe it's a Firefox issue.

Nice pics thanks for sharing
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 693
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Today had potential but things can mess it up. Midday cloud cover today was the biggest culprit was too much CIN as a result. 

 

Going forward it's a very active pattern with flood and severe threats. I know Ginx and Kevin want a specific to their house forecast but that's not the nature of convection. They should both know that by now.

You have never been so wrong. My exact point is that forecasts for general severe outbreaks the night before wether in your backyard or mine are not as accurate here in SNE as elsewhere. I said SNE is great with hurricanes, blizzards and such. I also argue that folks in this area are good forecasting micro events like Windex too the night before. If you are going to spin what I say that's fine, but my point was well proven today, just look at the tone and your own words the night before on what you and others really expected today, and I am not talking IMBFY
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

You have never been so wrong. My exact point is that forecasts for general severe outbreaks the night before wether in your backyard or mine are not as accurate here in SNE as elsewhere. I said SNE is great with hurricanes, blizzards and such. I also argue that folks in this area are good forecasting micro events like Windex too the night before. If you are going to spin what I say that's fine, but my point was well proven today, just look at the tone and your own words the night before on what you and others really expected today, and I am not talking IMBFY

 

He's right Steve in so much as the breadth of the area. There were a few outlier cells that may have been less encumbered by CIN, because there was more sun there before the mid deck swept over, but where I was, he's spot on.  

 

You may have some other personal beef going but I don't know and don't want to; but his post sounds pretty spot on -- I had just mentioned something similar to Wiz'.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

You have never been so wrong. My exact point is that forecasts for general severe outbreaks the night before wether in your backyard or mine are not as accurate here in SNE as elsewhere. I said SNE is great with hurricanes, blizzards and such. I also argue that folks in this area are good forecasting micro events like Windex too the night before. If you are going to spin what I say that's fine, but my point was well proven today, just look at the tone and your own words the night before on what you and others really expected today, and I am not talking IMBFY

I really have no idea what you're talking about. When one forecasts convection their talking about a risk or probability of seeing something. We explained why convection had trouble developing (though there were 2 storms in ne ct around 3 pm). I get the feeling your posts are more about subtle trolling than anything else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
  • Author
Posted

people get out more and enjoy! Why so much negativity?

Don't take things too personally on here. I've learned that from experience.

Be happy that we've had any thunderstorm threats at all. Climatologically, July has had plenty of severe events, so hang in there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I really have no idea what you're talking about. When one forecasts convection their talking about a risk or probability of seeing something. We explained why convection had trouble developing (though there were 2 storms in ne ct around 3 pm). I get the feeling your posts are more about subtle trolling than anything else.

I know Ginx and Kevin want a specific to their house forecast but that's not the nature of convection. They should both know that by now.

 

Whose the troll? I made a post about my opinion that night before severe forecasting was much more difficult and less accurate than other SNE forecasts, you got your panties in a bunch. I did not mention lonely garden variety Tstorms in NE CT. I was talking about severe and how difficult in comparisons to other regions night before forecasting is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I know Ginx and Kevin want a specific to their house forecast but that's not the nature of convection. They should both know that by now.

 

Whose the troll? I made a post about my opinion that night before severe forecasting was much more difficult and less accurate than other SNE forecasts, you got your panties in a bunch. I did not mention lonely garden variety Tstorms in NE CT. I was talking about severe and how difficult in comparisons to other regions night before forecasting is. 

 

I'm not sure if there is a regional backyard bias here though. Are we talking big time severe weather outbreaks across the country, because those are generally speaking pretty obvious set ups. There are also plenty of high profile busts to our west. I think is just the nature of convection, it is more prone to busts. A degree C at H7 or morning clouds hanging on an hour too long can effectively wipe out a day's threat. While similar difference during winter may be the difference between 4-8" and 3-6" and go relatively unnoticed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

If anything I think that typically our severe weather events go under-forecast because the natural bias is that it doesn't occur frequently here.

my original post pointed that out. I said my best storms this year were poo pooed the night before. Ryan gets defensive if anyone challenges then throws out personal references. I was not trolling anyone.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

my original post pointed that out. I said my best storms this year were poo pooed the night before. Ryan gets defensive if anyone challenges then throws out personal references. I was not trolling anyone.

 

Not suggesting anything either way. Just that convection by nature is poorly forecast, because features are small scale and often subtle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
eire015

eire015

Posted
Posted 




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304



   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK



   1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013



   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VT...CT...WRN MAINE...ERN NY...NH...MA



   EXCEPT SERN AREAS...RI.



   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 



   VALID 291722Z - 291915Z



   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT



   SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS



   DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC SVR



   HAIL...THOUGH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.



   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOMEWHAT UNFOCUSED PATTERN



   ATTM...WITH DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL ZONE DRIFTING EWD THROUGH HUDSON



   VALLEY REGION TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW



   LOCATED BETWEEN LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND MONTREAL.  THERMAL GRADIENT OVER



   WRN MAINE REPRESENTS DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE BEHIND EARLIER



   ACTIVITY.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SLOT OVER MOST OF ERN NY AND



   NEW ENGLAND W OF MAINE...AND BEHIND CLOUD COVER RELATED TO



   EARLIER/ELEVATED CONVECTION.  THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO WARM



   INTO MID-UPPER 70S F AND LOW 80S BETWEEN CENTRAL NY CONVECTION AND



   MAINE...ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATING MLCINH ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. 



   WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS FORMED FROM



   CENTRAL NY ENEWD TO CENTRAL NH AND NERN VT...ALSO ON EITHER SIDE OF



   FRONT.  



   OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR SVR E OF



   FRONT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH FRONTAL



   ZONE...THUS BOOSTING BUOYANCY FROM W-E.  ADDITIONAL PRECONVECTIVE



   INSOLATION SHOULD YIELD BROAD SWATH OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER



   ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO NEAR LONGITUDE OF WRN MAINE



   BORDER...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO WRN MAINE.  FAVORABLE BUOYANCY



   WILL BE OVERLAPPED BY INCREASINGLY AND SEASONALLY STG DEEP SHEAR



   WITH EWD EXTENT...BENEATH MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT IS SHIFTING NEWD



   ACROSS REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT SHOULD REMAIN



   COMMON FROM CT-NH AND WRN MAINE.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW



   WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT IN



   LOWEST 2 KM OR SO WHILE INCREASING MARKEDLY ABOVE 1 KM.  THIS YIELDS



   SLIGHTLY LOOPED TO NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS...AS EVIDENT IN



   VWP AND FCST SOUNDINGS.  SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...AS WELL AS



   ORGANIZED/MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS POSSIBLE. 



   CONFLUENCE LINE AND RELATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO ITS E MAY



   REPRESENT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL GIVEN



   ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINICITY AND BACKED FLOW WITH WHICH APCHG STORMS



   WOULD INTERACT.



   ..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/29/2013



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
Link to comment

	
		
	
	
	

	
	
Share on other sites

	

	


	

	

	




	



					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				
			
			



		

	


	
		

			


	
	

		

	
	
	
		

			
Archived

			

				This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.
			

		

	
	
	

	







	

		
			
				Go to topic listing
			
		
	

	




						


	

		
    
			
				
					
					
  • 

    • 
				
					
					
  • 

    
    
    
        
            Recently Browsing
        
        
          0 members
        
    
    
    
    
        
      
            
                
    • No registered users viewing this page.
      • 
            
        
    
        
    
    

    • 
				
			
		

	


					

					


	

		
		
			
			

		
		
		


	


					

				

			

			
		

      
      

    
        
            

		




            
        
    


		
			
			



	

		×
		


    
	





			
				

					


			

			

			

			
		

	






	

		×
		

			
    

  • Create New...
    •