CT Rain Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:35 PM, CoastalWx said: It's funny because the mid level clouds tell you forcing is there...but then it inhibits heating. My gut says storms will fire in ern NY state, but I wonder how organized it will be. You can see some surface based stuff west and northeast of KBGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:37 PM, weatherwiz said: Oh wow...I never knew you could do that. Certainly much different It seems to work much better than the operational RAP. Sometimes the mesoanalysis site gets a little crazy eliminating CIN and boosting CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:35 PM, CoastalWx said: It's funny because the mid level clouds tell you forcing is there...but then it inhibits heating. My gut says storms will fire in ern NY state, but I wonder how organized it will be.The line the WRF and HRR rip thru here is forming out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah guys, use MLCAPE. That gives you a better picture of the lower levels instead of SBCAPE. At least IMHO. Agree there...MLcape is certainly a much better indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:38 PM, CT Rain said: It seems to work much better than the operational RAP. Sometimes the mesoanalysis site gets a little crazy eliminating CIN and boosting CAPE. This is good to know, thanks! The RAP in general loves to do that and really loves to crank instability. It was supposed to be better than the RUC but I don't really see it. The only time the RUC/RAP ever really come in handy is when you have strong cooling aloft, especially after dark and it would continue to indicate an unstable airmass or even destabilize it further, which happened quite often in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:32 PM, weatherwiz said: The problem certainly isn't instability. SBcape values across CT are up to 2000 J/KG, MLcapes 1500 J/KG, MUcapes 2000 J/KG, LI values of -4C to -6C, Ncape values though only around 0.1 so Cape profiles are certainly skinny. The better forcing from the RFQ of the ULJ is still to the north and west of SNE as is the better forcing/height falls associated with the s/w One issue is this may be a much later show and by that time instability will be weakening. With that said, I still think we see widespread storms but severe will be isolated. Extreme. The problem is the skinny CAPE profiles. These are much more supportive of heavy rain. The low levels lapse rates aren't nearly as high as yesterday or the day before, so precip loading won't generate as much wind as those days either. Even with the late arrival of the shortwave, steep low level lapse rates (or high DCAPE) could make up for it with this early diurnal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like clouds are thinning over eastern PA moving this way but these clouds will probably cook us for severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 5:44 PM, OceanStWx said: Extreme. The problem is the skinny CAPE profiles. These are much more supportive of heavy rain. The low levels lapse rates aren't nearly as high as yesterday or the day before, so precip loading won't generate as much wind as those days either. Even with the late arrival of the shortwave, steep low level lapse rates (or high DCAPE) could make up for it with this early diurnal stuff. Yeah the skinny cape profiles certainly suggest heavy rain as the main threat, especially with PWATS approaching 1.5'' and greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Most of SNE is BKN or OVC right now. Here's the HRRR total cloud % forecast for 3 p.m. There's one of the issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 This here light rain does not entertain me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Bangers developing to my north and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 sun trying to peak back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Man its muggy as a mutha, gotta be low 70's dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 6:44 PM, weatherwiz said: sun trying to peak back outStorns feeding off the instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 6:46 PM, cpick79 said: Man its muggy as a mutha, gotta be low 70's dews Maybe over the garden, but mostly mid to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 6:48 PM, OceanStWx said: Maybe over the garden, but mostly mid to upper 60s. no way im standing in mid 60's d points. Kbed is 70, id say im there (in burlington now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I am in Thompson, pretty dark to my west with the cell in Union/Woodstock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 6:53 PM, cpick79 said: no way im standing in mid 60's d points. Kbed is 70, id say im there (in burlington now) The one ob in SNE with 70 dew point. And I said mid to upper 60s, not just mid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Here comes the damage. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF MA...PARTS OF NRN/ERN CT...RI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261902Z - 262130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE MCD AREA...A POCKET OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LIES BETWEEN HIGHER-DENSITY/OPAQUE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND AN EWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF SIMILAR CLOUDS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN CT INTO THE ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC. SFC DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THIS POCKET OF ENHANCED ISOLATION AMIDST MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONTRIBUTED BY /1/ CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND /2/ INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AMIDST THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES IS AUGMENTED BY INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. BOX VWP DATA INDICATE AROUND 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3-5-KM-AGL LAYER...AND SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY OCCUR AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CORRESPONDING MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THESE FACTORS BREED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..COHEN/KERR.. 06/26/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 it's sunny down here... probably too little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Sun out and light showers disappeared . Bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Coastal front backing into SE MA. Basically from Canal up to Bridgewater now. See if that helps trigger some stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Showers off to the west. Let's see If they make the trip to SNE land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like the s/w trough is just getting into upstate NY now so we'll see if anything really starts to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 +RN in some of these near stationary cells over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 9:29 PM, weatherwiz said: Looks like the s/w trough is just getting into upstate NY now so we'll see if anything really starts to pop. One formed just north of here..Others now into E NY..Just a later show than we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 9:41 PM, Wx Hype said: One formed just north of here..Others now into E NY..Just a later show than we thoughtEverything looks mega pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Another tstmr here on s shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 9:41 PM, Wx Hype said: One formed just north of here..Others now into E NY..Just a later show than we thought Probably see some isolated to widely scattered stuff but I for sure thought we would see widespread t'storms today...not necessarily severe but I thought we'd see lots of them. oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 On 6/26/2013 at 9:59 PM, weatherwiz said: Probably see some isolated to widely scattered stuff but I for sure thought we would see widespread t'storms today...not necessarily severe but I thought we'd see lots of them. oops Atmosphere pretty worked over after the last 2 days. Still time but prob just some rainers will pop this eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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