CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Can someone tell me where this mid-level low is that BOX's discussion refers to? I'm looking at spc mesoanalysis and I'm not seeing it. Look at 500mb. See the little spinarooski over western PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Look at 500mb. See the little spinarooski over western PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Weird profiles on the sounding. Winds are more W-NW near 850-600mb and then back to SW above 500mb. Could be some splitting or erratic storm motions. Also, winds aloft will fan any anvil crap to the northeast and not interfere with daytime heating. Should be an interesting aftn and evening I think..although we lack shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Weird profiles on the sounding. Winds are more W-NW near 850-600mb and then back to SW above 500mb. Could be some splitting or erratic storm motions. Also, winds aloft will fan any anvil crap to the northeast and not interfere with daytime heating. Should be an interesting aftn and evening I think..although we lack shear.Looks like maybe like after 3:00- 4:00 or so huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like maybe like after 3:00- 4:00 or so huh? I think so. Really most places have a chance of storms I think....just a matter of luck I guess if you get hit or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I think so. Really most places have a chance of storms I think....just a matter of luck I guess if you get hit or not. Nothing screams big day to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 For thunderstorms, I am like a fork in the road here, Yesterdays action missed here to the north and south, Storms typically dropping SE out of the Mtns/Foothills will miss, Storms moving up thru here from the SW will hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 It's the opposite of non-damaging lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I think today will be fairly active with thunderstorms and it's all thanks to the big cape we will have. While shear is certainly bot very strong, you really don't need great shear to generate t'storms. We will have a weak impulse moving through in the mid-levels, along with weak height falls. Cooling mid-level temperatures will allow for lapse rates to steepen and also erode the cap. A sea-breeze boundary will also increase low-level convergence. With the lack of shear, I'm concerned for storm training and flash flooding today. I think storms could drop 1-2'' of rain very quickly so flash flooding is certainly a main threat. Given large cape and steep low-level lapse rates, do have to watch out for a wet microburst or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Nothing screams big day to me. No nothing big or anything, but cold pool aloft and good lapse rates will be fun for some. Even KTAN may get some action very late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 No nothing big or anything, but cold pool aloft and good lapse rates will be fun for some. Even KTAN may get some action very late today. I think some pulsers will be about all we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 For thunderstorms, I am like a fork in the road here, Yesterdays action missed here to the north and south, Storms typically dropping SE out of the Mtns/Foothills will miss, Storms moving up thru here from the SW will hit Same thing here. The tip of the peninsula got rocked, but here at the house we just had a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 There is actually a pocket of 0-6km shear values of 30 knots associated with the cold pool. Just looked at lapse rates too, despite the lack of shear, hail will be a possibility in the most robust updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I think a few wet micros are possible today as cores build and then collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Same thing here. The tip of the peninsula got rocked, but here at the house we just had a few sprinkles. A few rumbles here and some sprinkles, That's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I think some pulsers will be about all we see. It may be one of those things when a cluster of cells form a cold pool and throws out a few segments. I'm intrigued for today despite lack of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Look at 500mb. See the little spinarooski over western PA? Ohhhh. I see it now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 It may be one of those things when a cluster of cells form a cold pool and throws out a few segments. I'm intrigued for today despite lack of shear. I think around here many get too fancy with these parameters and poo-poo everything that doesn't look like a severe weather outbreak. You don't need EML-like lapse rates to generate t'storms, you don't need boat loads of shear to generate t'storms...if you're looking for widespread severe weather/outbreak possibilities then you want to see those parameters. As for today, we're going to have a moderately unstable environment in place. All you need is a weak impulse to move through to generate storms and that's what we will have. The lack of shear only means storms will have trouble organizing and developing long sustaining updrafts...the lack of shear has nothing to do with the amount of storms that will pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I think around here many get too fancy with these parameters and poo-poo everything that doesn't look like a severe weather outbreak. You don't need EML-like lapse rates to generate t'storms, you don't need boat loads of shear to generate t'storms...if you're looking for widespread severe weather/outbreak possibilities then you want to see those parameters. As for today, we're going to have a moderately unstable environment in place. All you need is a weak impulse to move through to generate storms and that's what we will have. The lack of shear only means storms will have trouble organizing and developing long sustaining updrafts...the lack of shear has nothing to do with the amount of storms that will pop. Most of the high end setups suck around here..esp eastern MA. Screaming SW winds at the surface and aloft mean congrats Upstate NY and western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Most of the high end setups suck around here..esp eastern MA. Screaming SW winds at the surface and aloft mean congrats Upstate NY and western NE. Gimme a NW flow severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Most of the high end setups suck around here..esp eastern MA. Screaming SW winds at the surface and aloft mean congrats Upstate NY and western NE. Unless you have a cold pool aloft setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Unless you have a cold pool aloft setup Well those events are different...I mean the ones where SPC gets a pants tent of painting everyone with slight risk when it reality it's like CT valley on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 This looks like it could be fun for many later today: http://twitter.com/islivingston/status/349171818071986178/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 This looks like it could be fun for many later today: http://twitter.com/islivingston/status/349171818071986178/photo/1 12z hires NAM has a mid-afternoon storm making a beeline for KTOL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 12z hires NAM has a mid-afternoon storm making a beeline for KTOL: Looks like it will slide south and crush Coventry as he's searching for frost advisories online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 SPC has upgraded their convective outlook for the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 AMOUT a damaging afternoon very possible http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif … pic.twitter.com/wXlIi8MUBv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Most damage should be of the lighter fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 lol, Not a damage day unless you count tree branches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Big ones forming on sea breeze over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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