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General Thunderstorm Discussion: Late June


Quincy

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The severe threat on Thursday seems pretty marginal now that things have slowed down. Interestingly, however, Friday looks pretty unusual. It looks to me very close to the Jul 24, 2008 NH mega-long tornado. 

 

Yeah pretty good windfield. I looked at Saturday and even that has strong winds aloft too.

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Best storms I have had all year were dismissed the night before by many superior educated posters on here. Lately its not been more than guess work until initiation. I think severe in NE is the least predictable by many in SNE, too localized and infrequent. They try at least but accuracy is not as good as winter or hurricanes in SNE

 

Convection will always be more IMBY that large synoptic (even though hurricanes are technically meso) systems. One isolated storm can rock your town, or even neighborhood, while a deformation band will rip over several towns. So public perception is that it was a poor thunderstorm forecast locally, when regionally it may have been spot on.

 

It's hard when model guidance can be fairly useless, as convective blobs run wild through the physics. Even inter and intra-office coordination can be poor regarding convection. Some offices ramp up an event, while others back off, even though they're looking at the same data.

 

At least up this way, if we can climb into the 1000-1500 J/kg range with CAPE we've usually got enough mid level flow to kick off a few SVR.

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Case in point. Over the last several days, great looking thunderstorms where heading right for Bath. Then, boom, they split. Some would go north of me and some south. Yesterday, a shower formed right over my head. Then as it moved east it quickly built into quite a cell. I'm mostly left with just drizzle/showers and outflow/inflow breezes. It's great living on the coast, but severe thunderstorms are few and far between. I never consider this a poor forecast. With these, it's the luck of the draw.

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Case in point. Over the last several days, great looking thunderstorms where heading right for Bath. Then, boom, they split. Some would go north of me and some south. Yesterday, a shower formed right over my head. Then as it moved east it quickly built into quite a cell. I'm mostly left with just drizzle/showers and outflow/inflow breezes. It's great living on the coast, but severe thunderstorms are few and far between. I never consider this a poor forecast. With these, it's the luck of the draw.

 

That one cell that came trough here last evening was a direct hit, 1.35" of rain here, As the cell movement was at 9 mph, Had a wind gust of 45 mph and CG lightning all around the area

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That one cell that came trough here last evening was a direct hit, 1.35" of rain here, As the cell movement was at 9 mph, Had a wind gust of 45 mph and CG lightning all around the area

 

Glad to hear you had some excitement! Would love to see a half decent boomer plow through here. Something like July 2009, can't remember the exact date offhand. 1.5"  sized hail, wind gust of 61 mph, and 1.77" of rain in a little under an hour. The lightning show was exquisite!

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