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General Thunderstorm Discussion: Late June


Quincy

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So is tomorrow a day more like yesterday with a real sw to trigger bangers?

And then Thursday is more of a supercell type day with higher helicity

Hopefully it continues to be active as it looks like it will. I'm hating the high dews but loving the storms and it cools off at least the ambient temperature by 3-4pm each day. If dews will be high at least the past three evenings have been in the 60s.

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So is tomorrow a day more like yesterday with a real sw to trigger bangers?

 

And then Thursday is more of a supercell type day with higher helicity

 

Instability looks more unimpressive tomorrow than today or yesterday but Thursday is definitely an interesting day. 

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Think we can get enough instability on Thursday?

 

I dunno. It's a really weird setup and the 00z NAM is awfully slow with everything and has all of us battling a backdoor cold front and easterly/southeasterly winds. In that setup it would be tough. 

 

It's such an anomalous setup I'm not sure what to make of it. The low so far to our SW with an onshore flow probably ruins any fun but with a warm front/backdoor draped nearby it's worth watching. Could turn into a flood threat too. 

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Best storms I have had all year were dismissed the night before by many superior educated posters on here. Lately its not been more than guess work until initiation. I think severe in NE is the least predictable by many in SNE, too localized and infrequent. They try at least but accuracy is not as good as winter or hurricanes in SNE

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TODAY...

*** STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY ***

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONG/SEVERE COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST IS THAT THERE IS A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING SOME FORCING. THIS ALSO HAS INCREASED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES TO 30-35 KTS ALLOWING FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
SECOND FOCUS IS ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIRD AND LAST DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE IS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

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At least today should still be fairly active with thunderstorms.  Should have a bit more in the way of severe weather reports than yesterday but perhaps not as much as Monday since the cold pool really helped with the hail reports.  If we are able to generate like 2500-3000 Capes though it could be a tad more interesting.  

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Best storms I have had all year were dismissed the night before by many superior educated posters on here. Lately its not been more than guess work until initiation. I think severe in NE is the least predictable by many in SNE, too localized and infrequent. They try at least but accuracy is not as good as winter or hurricanes in SNE

Actually I think the forecasts have been pretty good the last week or so.

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I highly dounbt it gets south of pike. I hope it does stall just north of me.. Big bangers tomorrow..Tomorrow looks better than today for severe

 

Nah, tomorrow is like a training day. Today looks better. And the front definitely will get south of the pike esp from ORH east. I bet you get tickled by it.

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Nah, tomorrow is like a training day. Today looks better. And the front definitely will get south of the pike esp from ORH east. I bet you get tickled by it.

 

 

This whole "tickling" thing is really beginninng to bother me.......

 

 

Great light show yesterday driving to Bangor. Pretty much from Augusta on I was chasing the storms with great C/G just ahead of me during most of that stretch. My Philadelphia trip was postponed until next week, so I'll be home for whatever might come on Thursday/Friday.

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