Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Maybe a derecho http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Maybe a derecho http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif BTW, I take back some of the jokes I made about the sliver cell that rolled through Tolland. Same thing happened to me and although I just missed the core..man did that throw out bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Upgrade to slight risk today http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html it's funny...the percentages they use are good...the rest of their scheme needs improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 it's funny...the percentages they use are good...the rest of their scheme needs improvement.Its weird seeing the entire Northern tier in slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 BTW, I take back some of the jokes I made about the sliver cell that rolled through Tolland. Same thing happened to me and although I just missed the core..man did that throw out bolts.Yeah I was right on the northern edge but man did that spit out some amazing lightning. High cape enviro are classic for awesome CG. Same idea I think for today. Big lightning day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 That's why I liked those temps lowering near 500mb. That's the area with ice crystal production. Buoyant air at that level means heavy heavy static. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 We'll have to see if the HRRR is right near KROC over the next few hours. It fires a line of storms there and moves it into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 meh, Not expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Its weird seeing the entire Northern tier in slight risk well it's just annoying because people see that but don't read what it actually means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 well it's just annoying because people see that but don't read what it actually means. I never liked the wording "slight." You then go from "slight" to "moderate." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 We'll have to see if the HRRR is right near KROC over the next few hours. It fires a line of storms there and moves it into SNE.If you look there's already showers popping around there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I never liked the wording "slight." You then go from "slight" to "moderate." yeah Ryan and I have talked a lot about this. it's just not a good tool. i think it was OK in the days when not many people knew what / who the SPC is...but now that they are becoming so visible, i think it's just a confusing product for a lot of people. really the whole severe t-storm warning / criteria / definition stuff should be re-worked, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 yeah Ryan and I have talked a lot about this. it's just not a good tool. i think it was OK in the days when not many people knew what / who the SPC is...but now that they are becoming so visible, i think it's just a confusing product for a lot of people. really the whole severe t-storm warning / criteria / definition stuff should be re-worked, imho. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think it should be "elevated" since it's elevated above climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The risk areas are to broad brushed on the maps, You need to read the forecast discussion to get a better sense to where you may see storms fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think it should be "elevated" since it's elevated above climo. Yes that's what we use in house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 ...PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILLDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTONEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS A MOISTAND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONVECT RATHER EARLY. SUFFICIENTWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OFGUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SUBSTANTIALWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERESTORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTWHERE SCOTT LIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Talk about damaging lightning @MattNoyesNECN: 10-day forecast has storms each day. Could mean 100,000+ lightning strikes from the skies of New England in that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Talk about damaging lightning @MattNoyesNECN: 10-day forecast has storms each day. Could mean 100,000+ lightning strikes from the skies of New England in that period What a dumb tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 What a dumb tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 ...PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONVECT RATHER EARLY. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE SCOTT LIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I feel blessed to be mentioned. Hey if we are going to have this torrid airmass...might as well get thunder out of it. We are in a flow that isn't fairly common around here to produce daily thunder chances, but it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Phil, did you get those cells last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 What a dumb tweet.How come you aren't on there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 How come you aren't on there ? he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Phil, did you get those cells last night? a little. it wasn't much IMBY. few loud rumbles and some flashes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 How come you aren't on there ? I haven't done it much lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 a little. it wasn't much IMBY. few loud rumbles and some flashes around. I saw those cells popping over the bay behind the outflow boundary. Kind of cool how all those cells from basically Essex county down to the Cape were driven by the outflow boundary. Witnessed a rare dusk development of a CB overhead last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 he isBut he doesn't Tweet anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 looks like a remnant mcv in western ny/pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 But he doesn't Tweet anymore There is so much bad stuff out there. If it warrants it I'll tweet or something. I'm not a big fan of it. Besides I like talking wx here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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