JamieOber Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Get the snowblower ready. Anything that kills a snow threat in mid-November bodes well for the rest of winter. Remember...pre-Thanksgiving snow = not much snow the rest of winter. is that a correlation down there? I know there doesn't seem to be much of a correlation at all in southcentral/central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Get the snowblower ready. Anything that kills a snow threat in mid-November bodes well for the rest of winter. Remember...pre-Thanksgiving snow = not much snow the rest of winter. Is there scientific fact or is this more of a coincidence people apply as fact. Just wondering becuse say the same storms still happened and it was 34 and rain oppsoed to 32 and snow wouldn't the results of the winter have been the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I would say that in the Philly area, there is some correlation between early accumulating snows and the rest of winter being pretty blah in the snow department. But its certainly not scientific fact. Here's a few off the top of my head... 1979 - Accumulating snow on October 10. Rest of winter....not much snow. 1989 - Accumulating snow on Thanksgiving eve. Rest of winter...not much snow. 2011 - Accumulating snow on October 29. Rest of winter...not much snow. 2012 - Accumulating snow pre-Thanksgiving. Rest of winter...not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Is there scientific fact or is this more of a coincidence people apply as fact. Just wondering becuse say the same storms still happened and it was 34 and rain oppsoed to 32 and snow wouldn't the results of the winter have been the same? From a scientific standpoint - when Philadelphia records measurable snow during the month of NOV the mean snowfall for the remainder of the season is 24.0" and when no measurable snow is recorded the mean snowfall for the remainder of the season is 20.7". Thanksgiving is a variable date which as we see this year can be as late as 11/28 so pre-Thanksgiving is not a good benchmark to measure a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I would say that in the Philly area, there is some correlation between early accumulating snows and the rest of winter being pretty blah in the snow department. But its certainly not scientific fact. Here's a few off the top of my head... 1979 - Accumulating snow on October 10. Rest of winter....not much snow. 1989 - Accumulating snow on Thanksgiving eve. Rest of winter...not much snow. 2011 - Accumulating snow on October 29. Rest of winter...not much snow. 2012 - Accumulating snow pre-Thanksgiving. Rest of winter...not much snow. Not positive but fairly certain the biggest snowfall i have seen in november was mid month in 1987 but it might have been a jersey hit. Rest of winter blah A correlation to pre thanksgiving snow and unseasonable cold concerns me a little bit I have an archive of the november event from weather channel but it is vhs and i no longer have a player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It was 1987 an impressive early season event here is an archive link 11/11/87 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us1111.php interesting similiar strong cold high placement, even the mild air dominating the country immediately following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 From a scientific standpoint - when Philadelphia records measurable snow during the month of NOV the mean snowfall for the remainder of the season is 24.0" and when no measurable snow is recorded the mean snowfall for the remainder of the season is 20.7". Thanksgiving is a variable date which as we see this year can be as late as 11/28 so pre-Thanksgiving is not a good benchmark to measure a trend. If you cut it off by November 15th... 8.8 through 11/15/1953... 13.8 rest of season 2.3 through 11/15/1908... 15.8 rest of season 2.0 through 11/15/1940... 33.5 rest of season 1.3 through 11/15/1987... 13.7 rest of season 1.1 through 11/15/1925... 18.0 rest of season 0.8 through 11/15/1892... 36.0 rest of season 0.4 through 11/15/1968... 23.3 rest of season 0.3 through 11/15/2011... 3.7 rest of season 0.2 through 11/15/1933... 34.3 rest of season 0.2 through 11/15/1904... 43.6 rest of season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If you cut it off by November 15th... 8.8 through 11/15/1953... 13.8 rest of season 2.3 through 11/15/1908... 15.8 rest of season 2.0 through 11/15/1940... 33.5 rest of season 1.3 through 11/15/1987... 13.7 rest of season 1.1 through 11/15/1925... 18.0 rest of season 0.8 through 11/15/1892... 36.0 rest of season 0.4 through 11/15/1968... 23.3 rest of season 0.3 through 11/15/2011... 3.7 rest of season 0.2 through 11/15/1933... 34.3 rest of season 0.2 through 11/15/1904... 43.6 rest of season 50/50 on having a decent winter so not so bad after all What were other local accumulations in the Nov 87 event as it looks like philly made out bad i could have sworn i saw 4-6" in horsham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 50/50 on having a decent winter so not so bad after all What were other local accumulations in the Nov 87 event as it looks like philly made out bad i could have sworn i saw 4-6" in horsham That Nov 87 storm was patchy. Had a couple of inches here. DC was jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 50/50 on having a decent winter so not so bad after all What were other local accumulations in the Nov 87 event as it looks like philly made out bad i could have sworn i saw 4-6" in horsham 1.3 in Trenton. 3.7 in Allentown. 4.5 in Reading. 0.7 in Wilmington. Trace in Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 1.3 in Trenton. 3.7 in Allentown. 4.5 in Reading. 0.7 in Wilmington. Trace in Atlantic City. Looks good Ray that was indeed my earliest significant snow event before october 2011. Now i have to find a way to get the vhs archive to youtube it's a classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks good Ray that was indeed my earliest significant snow event before october 2011. Now i have to find a way to get the vhs archive to youtube it's a classic I suppose I ought to put all my stuff (90s mainly) on YouTube.... one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 18z gfs is more east of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 18z gfs is more east of the 12z run. 3 flat GFS runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Often seems to be a good sign for snow lovers...... 3 flat GFS runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 18z gfs is more east of the 12z run. 3 flat GFS runs in a row. Weenie suicides on facebook ALREADY. gonna be another long winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS has folded on the november mauler Betting the euro does the same tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Winter cancel March is going to rock just wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Snow and sleet falling at the pocono cabin. Coating on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS has folded on the november mauler Betting the euro does the same tonight. Euro didn't exactly cave, but it did shift everything south and east it appears, with a sharp cut-off to the north and west. Looking at the snow maps, I-95 to the coast gets pounded while back my way I get my customary 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yep, I was skeptical the whole time, probably gonna be another coastal snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 GFS has folded on the november mauler Betting the euro does the same tonight. Euro didn't exactly cave, but it did shift everything south and east it appears, with a sharp cut-off to the north and west. Looking at the snow maps, I-95 to the coast gets pounded while back my way I get my customary 2-4 inches. And we all know how those cutoffs work Steve lol. Push that cutoff 50 miles south and east and we watch flurries while the PHL weenies are posting their measurements while we cry and touch ourselves praying maybe some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And we all know how those cutoffs work Steve lol. Push that cutoff 50 miles south and east and we watch flurries while the PHL weenies are posting their measurements while we cry and touch ourselves praying maybe some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Warm and wet......cold and dry......it won't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Warm and wet......cold and dry......it won't be denied. I don't know how others feel, but as far as I'm concerned, that's a bit easier to take than sitting on the edge of a tight gradient getting flurries to perhaps an inch acumulation, while 25-50 miles away folks are getting destroyed by heavy snow and measuring with yardsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't know how others feel, but as far as I'm concerned, that's a bit easier to take than sitting on the edge of a tight gradient getting flurries to perhaps an inch acumulation, while 25-50 miles away folks are getting destroyed by heavy snow and measuring with yardsticks. Any scenario in which you were so close yet missed is heart-wrenching. I was most disappointed in missing Feb 10 2010 by a day, but wasn't thrilled about missing the mega-band on Dec 26, 2010 by 30 miles, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 NJ 24" PHL 6" N & W of PHL Flurries. Poconos, sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Any scenario in which you were so close yet missed is heart-wrenching. I was most disappointed in missing Feb 10 2010 by a day, but wasn't thrilled about missing the mega-band on Dec 26, 2010 by 30 miles, either. Well I can still remember listening to WINS during the 69 Lindsay storm - next to nothing here while NYC was buried. Seemed like the inland areas did far better in the 60s-80s. Haven't been getting many coast huggers recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't know how others feel, but as far as I'm concerned, that's a bit easier to take than sitting on the edge of a tight gradient getting flurries to perhaps an inch acumulation, while 25-50 miles away folks are getting destroyed by heavy snow and measuring with yardsticks. Just saw the euro and got that sinking feeling of not again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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