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6/20-21 Severe Weather Threat for the Northern Plains


AgeeWx

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TOG

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL SPINK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

 

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

 

* AT 122 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPOTTSWOOD...

  OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF REDFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

 


 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  SPINK COLONY AROUND 150 PM CDT.

 

THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 137 AND 148.

 

THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 311 AND 312.

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Tornado watch likely coming for E SD and W MN.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0134 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SWRN MN   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY    VALID 211834Z - 211930Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH ECNTRL SD   INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE   EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES EWD THROUGH ECNTRL AND NERN   SD. LONG LIVED STORM CURRENTLY OVER BUFFALO COUNTY REMAINS SEVERE   WITH BOWING STRUCTURES...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG   WARM ADVECTION WING EAST OF THIS FEATURE. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY   DEVELOP ENEWD FOR A WHILE AS THEY RIDE ALONG NRN FRINGE OF WARMER   700 MB TEMPERATURES BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD AND ESEWD. THE   DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3500   J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL   BOUNDARY. THIS REGION RESIDES ON NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ   WITH HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL MESO-CYCLONES AND POSSIBLE   TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOWING   STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING   THE EWD MOVING MCV.   ..DIAL/KERR.. 06/21/2013
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Many fences and branches blown down in Huron. Todd Heitkamp (@ToddHeitkamp) said 85mph gusts reported there. Sister lives there and says the neighbor's fence is blown down with branches scattered over the backyard. The Glendale Hutterite colony north of Huron may have been hit by a tornado.

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fclimo%2Freports%2Ftoday_filtered.kmz&hl=en&ll=44.798251,-98.284807&spn=0.015988,0.042272&sll=44.798403,-98.28382&sspn=0.015987,0.042272&t=h&z=15

Edit: SPC report says 87mph

Large trees uprooted:

https://twitter.com/apimpnamedjosie/status/348173692150374400/photo/1

https://twitter.com/wh0ranaround/status/348174445963247616/photo/1

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That was a strong couplet near Erwin. Now I can't tell what is a tornado and what is not. Good thing I don't have to issue tornado warnings for large complex clusters.

 

by the way, what is known as the "Boundary Waters Derecho" started out with a similar looking beefy cluster, in North Dakota, in the morning hours.

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/BoundaryWaters/still/0722amcdt_MVX_bref1_srv1_fargo_damage.png

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Is this place near Norden?  How do you measure 100mph winds. If I was there, I would be thinking, "darn... small trees just got flattened"

Stick a brood of chickens in the back of your truck and let one go* and time how long it takes to disappear out of sight?

*I do not condone animal cruelty

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Now these are metars!

 

KHON 212012Z AUTO 36045G55KT 3SM TSRA BR BKN031 BKN110 16/16 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 33065/1956 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESFR P0009
KHON 212007Z AUTO 34034G64KT 2SM -TSRA BR BKN029 OVC110 16/16 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 33065/1956 LTG DSNT NW-NE P0008
KHON 211955Z AUTO 33058G76KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG BKN016 BKN026 OVC030 17/17 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 32076/1951 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 SLP096 P0028 T01670167
KHON 211948Z AUTO 31052G65KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 17/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 30065/1948 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 P0024
KHON 211942Z AUTO 31038G62KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG SQ FEW010 BKN026 OVC032 17/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 PRESRR P0000
KHON 211939Z AUTO 30043G62KT 1 1/4SM -TSRA BR SQ FEW015 BKN026 OVC035 19/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1923 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 PRESRR P0000
KHON 211937Z AUTO 29043G62KT 5SM TS HZ SQ FEW020 SCT024 OVC033 22/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1923 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859 PRESRR
 

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Now these are metars!

 

KHON 212012Z AUTO 36045G55KT 3SM TSRA BR BKN031 BKN110 16/16 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 33065/1956 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESFR P0009

KHON 212007Z AUTO 34034G64KT 2SM -TSRA BR BKN029 OVC110 16/16 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 33065/1956 LTG DSNT NW-NE P0008

KHON 211955Z AUTO 33058G76KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG BKN016 BKN026 OVC030 17/17 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 32076/1951 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 SLP096 P0028 T01670167

KHON 211948Z AUTO 31052G65KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 17/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 30065/1948 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 P0024

KHON 211942Z AUTO 31038G62KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG SQ FEW010 BKN026 OVC032 17/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1928 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 PRESRR P0000

KHON 211939Z AUTO 30043G62KT 1 1/4SM -TSRA BR SQ FEW015 BKN026 OVC035 19/17 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1923 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859RAB38 PRESRR P0000

KHON 211937Z AUTO 29043G62KT 5SM TS HZ SQ FEW020 SCT024 OVC033 22/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 29062/1937 WSHFT 1923 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB1859 PRESRR

 

 

watertown calls huron's obs....

KATY 212053Z AUTO 01013KT 10SM TS BKN017 OVC040 21/19 A2989 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE00B26 SLP114 60003 T02060189 51023=KATY 212106Z AUTO 25027G47KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR SQ SCT008 OVC020 16/15 A3002 RMK AO2 PK WND 25047/2106 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 PRESRR P0040=KATY 212109Z AUTO 26049G67KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG SQ SCT006 OVC020 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 26067/2109 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 P0059=KATY 212112Z AUTO 28048G71KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG SQ BKN006 OVC020 16/15 A2998 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 P0073 $=
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watertown calls huron's obs....

KATY 212053Z AUTO 01013KT 10SM TS BKN017 OVC040 21/19 A2989 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE00B26 SLP114 60003 T02060189 51023=KATY 212106Z AUTO 25027G47KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR SQ SCT008 OVC020 16/15 A3002 RMK AO2 PK WND 25047/2106 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 PRESRR P0040=KATY 212109Z AUTO 26049G67KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG SQ SCT006 OVC020 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 26067/2109 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 P0059=KATY 212112Z AUTO 28048G71KT 1/4SM +TSRA FG SQ BKN006 OVC020 16/15 A2998 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB2057 P0073 $=

 

Impressive!

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Looks like more strong storms heading towards the MSP metro, especially the southern part. Another 1-3" of rain not out of the question tonight for the metro.

as long as this set of storms doesn't directly parallel US-12 we might not be in too bad a shape (the track the earlier cells took). but it looks like 3.5" or so, so far over 2 nights at my place via radar estimates.

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in my part of st paul, i have been lucky to this point. power has flickered, but not gone out. but last night, while I was more worried about the damage on the apt building property last night and the flood that generated at a next door building when the storm drains clogged up with debris, there was a tree the diameter of one of my size 10 1/2 shoes that fell across a portion of hyacinth ave the next block closer to rice st from me. it snapped off at the base. all of which i reported to chanhassen.the photos linked are supplemental to the ones i posted earlier.

 

https://www.facebook.com/jim.marusak/posts/10152945792315176

 

I also have a video up on youtube from most of the storm as it passed through last night, taken from just inside the doorway at my building. but i will warn you, it's not the greatest one, between being 16 mins long, interrupted occasionally for letting fellow residents in during the storm, and not getting the background lighting filtered out from the sides perfectly using my canon powershot until later on.

 

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