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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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euro brings sub 0C 850s into lake superior at day 9/10 LOL

 

Yeah not good. The signals are growing for a pretty unpleasant pattern.

 

Getting a big cut-off by next week is quite anomalous and can start doing some funky things like big hail, waterspouts, and yes even stratiform flooding rains. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah not good. The signals are growing for a pretty unpleasant pattern.

 

Getting a big cut-off by next week is quite anomalous and can start doing some funky things like big hail, waterspouts, and yes even stratiform flooding rains. 

 

That developing deep trough to our west and associated low pressure runs into that BDF high pressure to our northeast and gives us a cruddy Thu/Fri with the easterly flow...then as the LP gets closer, we def have a sultan signal for heavier rains as the ML flow gets more subtropical connection and gets pushed over the top of the marine airmass. Obviously that far out, things can change, but the overall heavy rain potential is starting to gain some ensemble support.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Yeah not good. The signals are growing for a pretty unpleasant pattern.

 

Getting a big cut-off by next week is quite anomalous and can start doing some funky things like big hail, waterspouts, and yes even stratiform flooding rains. 

certainly isn't going to lead to triple H weather. yeah you'd probably see some neat things unfold with such a big trough this time of year.

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joey2002

joey2002

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Yeah not good. The signals are growing for a pretty unpleasant pattern.

 

Getting a big cut-off by next week is quite anomalous and can start doing some funky things like big hail, waterspouts, and yes even stratiform flooding rains. 

 

Sounds like #DamagingTimes.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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That developing deep trough to our west and associated low pressure runs into that BDF high pressure to our northeast and gives us a cruddy Thu/Fri with the easterly flow...then as the LP gets closer, we def have a sultan signal for heavier rains as the ML flow gets more subtropical connection and gets pushed over the top of the marine airmass. Obviously that far out, things can change, but the overall heavy rain potential is starting to gain some ensemble support.

 

Absolutely. This time of year those cut-offs can just sit and rot 2009-style. After a cool period I could see a period where Kevin falsely claims victory with scattered afternoon convection and a 66F dew point... but no one wants an ULL sitting overhead for days around 7/1. 

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

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certainly isn't going to lead to triple H weather. yeah you'd probably see some neat things unfold with such a big trough this time of year.

 

crummy, I will be up north 6/28-7/15.. not looking forward to cool/rainy weather at the beach for 2 weeks.. actually hoping for heat in SNE which leads to beatiful weather up north for me. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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And just for the record...the Euro showing 50s/60s 7-8 days out does not mean we are "calling for 50s and 60s"...just stating what the model shows. Wanted to get that out there before it got spun into something down the line.

 

You'll know if I call for 50s/60s...I'll say I'm calling for that. Most other mets here do the same. What is happening though is we are gaining model support for heavy rainfall next weekend. The backdoor coldfront/marine airmass idea is also gaining support but its too early to say thats going to happen yet. But I do think the actual heat is only going to be around a few days.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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And just for the record...the Euro showing 50s/60s 7-8 days out does not mean we are "calling for 50s and 60s"...just stating what the model shows. Wanted to get that out there before it got spun into something down the line.

 

You'll know if I call for 50s/60s...I'll say I'm calling for that. Most other mets here do the same. What is happening though is we are gaining model support for heavy rainfall next weekend. The backdoor coldfront/marine airmass idea is also gaining support but its too early to say thats going to happen yet. But I do think the actual heat is only going to be around a few days.

this ^ . thank you.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Not sure why we are spinning off into such a gloomy dire interpretation of the Euro ?

 

I do see the backdoor ... and it is much more technically a backdoor front than it was on the 00z honestly, which could also be a subtle trend to back off on that.  Also,the trough doesn't set up over the NE in the D8+ range. It digs into the GL and comes to a screeching halt as the Bermuda ridge abuts it back.   We end up humid with a SW flow by late D9 onwards in that. 

 

It actually looks like it wants to get the east coast into the Bahama Blues..

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Not sure why we are spinning off into such a gloomy dire interpretation of the Euro ?

 

I do see the backdoor ... and it is much more technically a backdoor front than it was on the 00z honestly, which could also be a subtle trend to back off on that.  Also,the trough doesn't set up over the NE in the D8+ range. It digs into the GL and comes to a screeching halt as the Bermuda ridge abuts it back.   We end up humid with a SW flow by late D9 onwards in that. 

 

It actually looks like it wants to get the east coast into the Bahama Blues..

 

You might not be able to tell on your maps, but it hangs a front up with east winds near I-90 at day 9. Day 10 tries to get SE winds, but a pretty ugly picture painted. Of course it's in la la land, but there is definitely multi model agreement.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Not sure why we are spinning off into such a gloomy dire interpretation of the Euro ?

 

I do see the backdoor ... and it is much more technically a backdoor front than it was on the 00z honestly, which could also be a subtle trend to back off on that.  Also,the trough doesn't set up over the NE in the D8+ range. It digs into the GL and comes to a screeching halt as the Bermuda ridge abuts it back.   We end up humid with a SW flow by late D9 onwards in that. 

 

It actually looks like it wants to get the east coast into the Bahama Blues..

 

I dunno a big/sprawling anomalous cut-off diving into the Great Lakes with ensemble and other model support is a pretty crappy sign heading into the week of July 4th. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Not sure why we are spinning off into such a gloomy dire interpretation of the Euro ?

 

I do see the backdoor ... and it is much more technically a backdoor front than it was on the 00z honestly, which could also be a subtle trend to back off on that.  Also,the trough doesn't set up over the NE in the D8+ range. It digs into the GL and comes to a screeching halt as the Bermuda ridge abuts it back.   We end up humid with a SW flow by late D9 onwards in that. 

 

It actually looks like it wants to get the east coast into the Bahama Blues..

 

 

We're stuck under an inversion D9...this is verbatim on the Euro...M.A. def gets humid and tropical...but not us. Maybe beyond D10, we warm sector at the surface for a day before the trough moves east.

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