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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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OT but I'm starting to feel a huge winter.

Im not sure there is a winter on the cp of sne that can really satisfy me with th exception of the year that parts of cape got 100+ But i make do w multiple excursions to nne during those times and will long for a better spot till i move. Its just not snowy consistently enough.

The year you move north will be 2004-05esque.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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I wonder if we might have a few cane threats this fall? Seems like pattern is conducive for a big hit

Lets hope. Close ur eyes and picture a cat 5 just north of central bahamas forecast to move nnw off hatteras and g stream, then accelerate due north

At unusually fast speed. Then maybe we could get a late season cane to interact with a unseasonably cold airmass and pound interior areas with many feet.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Says banter at the very end.    Anywho-nice to see a dry summery pattern for a change.  My yard is quickly drying out under the strong June sun.   Sunset's at 8:29 here tonight-the latest time of the year which will last for several days before beginning a slow retreat at first....

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Says banter at the very end. Anywho-nice to see a dry summery pattern for a change. My yard is quickly drying out under the strong June sun. Sunset's at 8:29 here tonight-the latest time of the year which will last for several days before beginning a slow retreat at first....

where do you see a dry pattern?
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Brian5671

Brian5671

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where do you see a dry pattern?

from now until next Wednesday at least....(yeah it's short, but I'll take it!) Dry period would have been a better choice of words.   But hey, the Euro's still a week away, no guarantee we turn wet again given the range....

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm sort of on the fence with the pattern evolution for post Wednesday this next week.   I'm certain we cool/scale back any positive anomalies after mid week, but how much is in question.  

 

Most guidance I have seen agree that an anomalously strong "SPV" is going to drop into the SE, GOA area. In the winter-time, this would typically send a Pac jet stream slamming into the West Coast and then cause some sort of flat ridging over much of the CONUS downstream.  In the summer, heh, not so sure.  The wave-lengths are smaller at this time of year, such that the subsequent ridge component wave-length down stream of that vortex -- in this case -- is shortened.  This in turn causes the trough's re-emergence over the GL/OV-NE regions later next week.

 

That could all be over-done, or not.  One could argue veraciously for either solution, that the ridge is yet too short in wave-length even for June, and that the mass should be spread out more.  That would [likely] require less eastern CONUS NW flow.

 

It snowed in the first week of May this year, even at some lower elevations.  We have had cool anomalies and winter like patterns unrelentingly stealing time away from this early portion of the warm season.  Throwing another winter-looking scenario of a deep GOA gyre off the NW Coast fits with that seasonal trend.  How it usurps the downstream flow construct is in question in my mind,  because just the same, I don't see any outright reason why that ridge's wave-length has to be so short considering it's node is nearing 600DM!   That's a bit strange looking.   It may very well be a superposition of the base +PNAP with that ridge causing an exaggerated outlook there.  

 

But I don't buy it that it will be hung up in the upper 60s on the 28th... That's the Euro feeding us its typical extended cold happy bullcrap du jour. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12z GFS backdoors NE on Tues night/Wed

 

Yeah, it's a possibility we have'nt brought up sooner but it's there, no doubt!   You can see backside confluence much more represented on this run heading into Wednesday, and that would completely change the sensible aspect of next week if that transpires this way...

 

gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif

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