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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yeah you will love that in winter when the WF is on your door step and Will is bulletproofing his snowpack.

LOL...I was thinking that same thought.

He'd be having a breakdown if it was 40F at his house and its 29F at ORH...or at least wouldn't be bringing attention to it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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LOL at ORH at 59 right now. Those poor folks. Thankfully for them the warm front is on their doorstep and will end that nonsense shortly

 

 

Clearly the lesson in all of this that you have taught us is that the global pattern doesn't support a backdoor front affecting southern New England.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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LOL...I was thinking that same thought.

He'd be having a breakdown if it was 40F at his house and its 29F at ORH...or at least wouldn't be bringing attention to it.

 

 

He's usually pretty subtle when its like 29-30F and ZR here in the winter and all those Tolland mesonets are bumped up to like 36F and moderate rain. Usually its stuff like "well this snowpack won't melt much with temps staying in the 30s"...and he usually ends up arguing with Ryan when Ryan's forecast is like a high of 41 and Kevin spins his 39.3F high as a bad forecast. :lol:

 

It always ends up showing though when we have a torch or get near end of winter when his area melts out to just patches and we're sitting with 6" of bulletproof concrete still. That's when those events end up making a difference.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Help.  :frostymelt:

 

1045101_10151543337999200_286965438_n.jp

 

 

Just amazing!    

 

Just an observation re this 'pattern change' ...  It seems that it's a work in progress, really.  The cool-like wet times of earlier this month and the governing parental circulation construct was replaced with higher heights and a resulting low end heat wave.  

 

However, then the newly arrived ridge rapidly retrograded toward the Rockies. In between it and the Bermuda subtropical ridge this trough node opened up.  It's really kind of a "baroclinically" weak feature, albeit anomalous for its meridional nature -- being that we are nearing July.  But DPs on the western side of the trough out over the GL are not appreciably dry, and there doesn't appear to be much CAA around the quadrants of the gyre now nearly stationary in U. state NY.    

 

That said, what happens going forward is pretty interesting in the operational Euro and GFS.  The Bermuda ridge begins to retrograde and/or fills back west toward the EC, bringing eventually 588dm+ heights bulging onto land.  The trough retrogrades, and fills back W into a shear axis for the Plains -- perhaps continued drought alleviation.

 

Meanwhile, and this is expressively shown in the Euro, a large plume of EML type air gets circuitously ripped from the W/SW regions of the CONUS, up and around and eventually passes over Hudson Bay!  That's ...just incredible to see +21C 850 air passing over southern James Bay.   Though ...honestly, I am less than sure what the climatology is on 850mb thickness for that region, I am fairly certain that 20+ air at that level/latitude is an impressive SD event.  

 

Though the models diverge (as usual) for the post D6 times, they do agree that as the middle range ages, the Bermuda ridge will take back over -- after that, the GFS wants a kind of August looking pattern with ridge domination.  The Euro threatens to then settle that continental-charged hot thickness plume over NE, which would be heh...triple digit heat if it comes on down on a NW flow like that.   Some of our hottest weather oft does arrive from the NW.  Probably change on the next run, but the last couple cycles of the Euro did begin hinting at that sort of hot plume into southern Canada.

 

So in the end, the pattern change probably began with the heat-wave, then we get a kind of pulsing backward, then another surge onward upcoming. Starting to vibe that way.    Maybe we can call this up-coming period, Pattern change, mock 2 - ha

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Will/Jerry ... remember how the winter of 1993-1994 was a weird kind of super +NAO, so positive that it overwhelmed and made it cold again ...?  It seems this is the summer version of that.   Interesting...  although perhaps not "cold" for us here, that is a massive area of negative heights over the NAO west-domain, and it's threatening to bring NW flow down to NE ... in July!

 

gfs_namer_204_500_vort_ht.gif

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Will/Jerry ... remember how the winter of 1993-1994 was a weird kind of super +NAO, so positive that it overwhelmed and made it cold again ...? It seems this is the summer version of that. Interesting... although perhaps not "cold" for us here, that is a massive area of negative heights over the NAO west-domain, and it's threatening to bring NW flow down to NE ... in July!

Kind of gives you the idea that its amplitude vs attitude that brings the goods.

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