We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

[dendrite]

They're dying in NH

@RyanBretonWX: Humidity is oppressive. Few downpours in the Merrimack Valley right now; dew points in the low 70s!

It's a brutal 67/67 here.

[Quincy]

18z NAM really hits hard with the BD now. East wind at KTOL by 8 p.m. tomorrow and dews falling dangerously low into the 50's.

[Damage In Tolland]

18z NAM really hits hard with the BD now. East wind at KTOL by 8 p.m. tomorrow and dews falling dangerously low into the 50's.

[Ginx snewx]

18z NAM really hits hard with the BD now. East wind at KTOL by 8 p.m. tomorrow and dews falling dangerously low into the 50's.

oh how we pray

[dendrite]

18z NAM really hits hard with the BD now. East wind at KTOL by 8 p.m. tomorrow and dews falling dangerously low into the 50's.

I get 50s for highs on Friday. lol

[powderfreak]

12z GFS has 3-4" of rain through Sunday night in CT...

[Quincy]

Will the KURO sound the  with its next run?

[powderfreak]

I get 50s for highs on Friday. lol

 

Looks pretty similar up here east of the Spine in VT... holding in the upper 50s on Friday afternoon on the NAM.

 

Dews dropping into the 50s for most on Thursday night, too.  That would be nice.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will the KURO sound the with its next run?

Lol. It's not going to get into the 50's. BOX has upper 60's for lows. Someone is going to bust badly

[powderfreak]

Will the KURO sound the  with its next run?

 

Looks like it gets the front down into Ginxy's neighborhood or just south of there based on the wind vectors.

 

[Modfan]

12z GFS has 3-4" of rain through Sunday night in CT...

I guess better than 3-4 inches through Friday night, does it show any specific area

[Ginx snewx]

Will the KURO sound the  with its next run?

somebody is panic stricken

Kevin ‏@TollandKev27m

@MattNoyesNECN What about rest of SNE? Looks like we're in the clear?

[Ginx snewx]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P911Ckk9bcM

[Typhoon Tip]

What's likely to happen is that our BD currently nearing the area will shallowly flood the area down to the south coast over the next 24 hours...  Then, as the trough amplifies and a low lifts west, we get a period of enhanced overrunning rainfall that has enough convective markers to fear some hefty totals.   But, the boundary goes back N as those west Atlantic heights begin to retrograde -- perhaps by 60 hours we are back into deep southerly flow and it will be high dp air. 

[ORH_wxman]

BDF roaring down the Maine coast...PWM dropped like 16 degrees in less than one hour.

[Damage In Tolland]

What other piece of guidance has that front getting temps into the 50's to south coast like that?

[Typhoon Tip]

BDF roaring down the Maine coast...PWM dropped like 16 degrees in less than one hour.

 

 

Hi res vis imagery shows it expanding SW as a strata deck, underneath the advancing mid level band, with certain rapidity.  Hasn't occurred yet here in Ayer, but we are going to plunge threw it before you all given to our proximity of N of Rt Poop. 

 

Heading out for a run...we'll see if I get a nice smack in the face with a cooling wind blast.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think you can see why the NAM is pulling that and other models aren't. I know where the house money Shouldn't be placed..The NAM tracking that low farther east and stronger tugs the bd south.in winter what would be tossed?

 

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS STORM...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FURTHER EASTERLY TRACK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think you can see why the NAM is pulling that and other models aren't. I know where the house money Shouldn't be placed..The NAM tracking that low farther east and stronger tugs the bd south.in winter what would be tossed?

 

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF

THIS STORM...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FURTHER EASTERLY TRACK AS

COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.

 

 

Could be convective feedback doing that...

[Typhoon Tip]

What other piece of guidance has that front getting temps into the 50's to south coast like that?

 

It probably wouldn't be that cool in the S... more like splitting the diff.   It may be 57 at Lawrence up in NE Mass and 63 down there, with the boundary just S.   Seems things want to work out that way but I'm less than certain.   

[powderfreak]

I think you can see why the NAM is pulling that and other models aren't. I know where the house money Shouldn't be placed..The NAM tracking that low farther east and stronger tugs the bd south.in winter what would be tossed?

 

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF

THIS STORM...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FURTHER EASTERLY TRACK AS

COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.

 

I think you are right on that one... I'd still always toss the NAM but it is just worth noting that the BDF showed up again like that.  That's all. 

 

I'd be a lot more weary of it if I were more in NE MA.  The BDF is real obviously, its just how far south it gets.

 

Coastal ME has some upper 50s showing up on private weather stations on the meso-maps in the PWM area.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think you are right on that one... I'd still always toss the NAM but it is just worth noting that the BDF showed up again like that.  That's all. 

 

I'd be a lot more weary of it if I were more in NE MA.  The BDF is real obviously, its just how far south it gets.

 

Coastal ME has some upper 50s showing up on private weather stations on the meso-maps in the PWM area.

Oh yeah I agree.It's there and it's real..and it will certainly reach down to at least ORh or maybe the pike area..but I'm not sure at 50's to the s coast.that seems iffy to say the least

[powderfreak]

Oh yeah I agree.It's there and it's real..and it will certainly reach down to at least ORh or maybe the pike area..but I'm not sure at 50's to the s coast.that seems iffy to say the least

 

Yeah even the NAM doesn't have 50s to the south coast... it holds the 60F isotherm at like BOS-TOL-BDL or a few miles south.

 

It looks like on the NAM (worst case scenario for your weather appetite), the BDF is only in your area or south of you for 12 hours at most anyway.  And that's the most extreme solution with the BDF getting south of you on THursday night, so its not like its the middle of an afternoon or something.

 

In the grand scheme it wouldn't matter if you're at 58F on Thursday night while your sleeping.  Its not going to ruin a daytime south of the Pike.

[Modfan]

Does the heavy/heavier rain set up along/north/south the BDF boundary?

[Typhoon Tip]

PORTLAND CLOUDY 58 57 97 NE12G20 29.85R FOG

[MaineJayhawk]

PORTLAND CLOUDY 58 57 97 NE12G20 29.85R FOG

A 0.02 roll of TP day on the Maine coast.

[scoob40]

BDF roaring down the Maine coast...PWM dropped like 16 degrees in less than one hour.

50-50 that it makes it this far SW ?

[#NoPoles]

so...i just saw Wbz Boston is getting Eric Fisher as their new Chief Meteorologist and Todd Gutner is, I guess, being demoted to mornings...BTW, Eric Fisher is coming from TWC...oy vey...so now Channel 4 is Accuweather/TWC toadies...glad Barry is still doing Wkends...love me some Barry Burbank...

[scoob40]

so...i just saw Wbz Boston is getting Eric Fisher as their new Chief Meteorologist and Todd Gutner is, I guess, being demoted to mornings...BTW, Eric Fisher is coming from TWC...oy vey...so now Channel 4 is Accuweather/TWC toadies...glad Barry is still doing Wkends...love me some Barry Burbank...

Eric and his wife Elizabeth both worked together here at ABC 40. I believe she still works at CNN.

[N. OF PIKE]

70 here and 66 in beverly. Anyone have map of bdcf position, im walking home and it would be welcomed