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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Still U60s up here right now. Quite comfy despite the dews. Glad I live here.

Haha, same thing up this way.

Today we didn't even have to wait till 10am for it to start raining.

This could get to be an impressive streak of rain. We are on day 5 and averaging like a half inch per day. Now 40 out of the past 50 days have had at least a trace of precip fall.

I can hear the mold and mushrooms growing.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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4km Burlington meso WRF model has bangers developing between 11-2pm from SW NH route 2 corridor to around northern end of 128 by 2 pm then pushing ESE.  has another round for SW SNE between between 5-11pm with the leftover pushing into central mass /orh around 9pm.  sort of almost misses the KTAN/Ccod area again

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I gave up myself posting Euro stuff as according to one I do not have it. But I agree with Will, let them go see it themselves, showing what a model says is not saying it will. Actual forecasts are hard to come by in here lately, they have been scared off. Nobody gets severe dead right the night before anyways, but synoptically you will not find a 2 day never mind 3 day detailed forecast here. Its more discussion of model output but somehow that gets spun into actual forecast.

I don't get the ECMWF stuff when posters are still just assuming based on short posts from mets...it's all free on Wunderground. QPF, temps, all levels...you just have to wait an extra 45 minutes to see it.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

4km Burlington meso WRF model has bangers developing between 11-2pm from SW NH route 2 corridor to around northern end of 128 by 2 pm then pushing ESE. has another round for SW SNE between between 5-11pm with the leftover pushing into central mass /orh around 9pm. sort of almost misses the KTAN/Ccod area again

What is SW SNE? Like Fairfield Cty?
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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

? They all do. 

Well, isn't the warm front further northwest and it's the backdoor we're looking at across SNE? Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. It could be some sort of quasi-stationary front. It's not like we have a roaring warm front lifting through, especially considering the frontal axis is already well north of here.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Well, isn't the warm front further northwest and it's the backdoor we're looking at across SNE? Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. It could be some sort of quasi-stationary front. It's not like we have a roaring warm front lifting through, especially considering the frontal axis is already well north of here.

 

At least Thursday morning it appears to be a BDCF but by midday it becomes quasi stationary and slowly begins lifting north as a warm front. That will continue through Friday but it definitely looks like a legit warm sector/wind shift/theta-e boundary slowly oozing north as a warm front.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
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At least Thursday morning it appears to be a BDCF but by midday it becomes quasi stationary and slowly begins lifting north as a warm front. That will continue through Friday but it definitely looks like a legit warm sector/wind shift/theta-e boundary slowly oozing north as a warm front.

I do see that. I just don't think this is a classic warm front "tornado setup" that Kev is hoping for. Although the SPC SREF is now looking more interesting for Saturday. This pattern keeps evolving and it's been hard to iron out a legit severe threat.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I do see that. I just don't think this is a classic warm front "tornado setup" that Kev is hoping for. Although the SPC SREF is now looking more interesting for Saturday. This pattern keeps evolving and it's been hard to iron out a legit severe threat.

 

Well I don't really think we ever really get a warm front tornado setup save very unusual situations like 1953 in Worcester. 

 

The look is very reminiscent of July 2008 for Friday/Saturday. 

 

Thursday will be done to get tornadoes since everything holds back. 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
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Well I don't really think we ever really get a warm front tornado setup save very unusual situations like 1953 in Worcester. 

 

The look is very reminiscent of July 2008 for Friday/Saturday. 

 

Thursday will be done to get tornadoes since everything holds back. 

 Holds back and we get socked with a southeast flow during the "best" daytime heating.

 

The low pressure system this Friday and Saturday actually looks considerably more amplified than the July 2008 setup, so it could be interesting.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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 Holds back and we get socked with a southeast flow during the "best" daytime heating.

 

The low pressure system this Friday and Saturday actually looks considerably more amplified than the July 2008 setup, so it could be interesting.

 

Yeah July 2008 is a pretty good analog. The issue is too amplified and too much QG forcing you could manage to get some stratiform rain issues. Worth watching it's an interesting setup. 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
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Yeah July 2008 is a pretty good analog. The issue is too amplified and too much QG forcing you could manage to get some stratiform rain issues. Worth watching it's an interesting setup. 

00z GFS analog-based guidance shows a number of tornadoes in New England with a very interesting cluster around Rhode Island. By no means suggesting a tornado outbreak, but here's that map: (2008 was listed as the top 3 analog)

SVRtorngfs212F072.png

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

00z GFS analog-based guidance shows a number of tornadoes in New England with a very interesting cluster around Rhode Island. By no means suggesting a tornado outbreak, but here's that map: (2008 was listed as the top 3 analog)

 

Water temperatures may be a bit too cool this time of year for RI... late July/August/September would be better but it's an interesting look.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Did Ray Lewis or Donte Stallworth ? They don't go to jail. They get away with murder

 

Stallworth?  He stupidly drove while drunk and was appropriately prosecuted for the ensuing tragedy.  However, from what I've read, the victim was also drunk, and jaywalking on a 4-lane highway at 2 AM, and probably hit the side of Stallworth's vehicle rather than being struck by the front.  I wonder if it was a mirror-to-head impact.  That's no excuse for what Stallworth did, but calling it "murder" trivializes the Lewis and Hernandez incidents.

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