Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Here's the 12z NAM and I don't think it's far off. It aligns with that thinking:

attachicon.gifnamFrontPNG.png

 

(Cold front may be drawn a bit too far east, but point of focus is backdoor)

 

Actually...Thursday has potential to be a fairly decent severe weather day...lapse rates could be an issue but helicity is pretty high and good vertical shear

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Actually...Thursday has potential to be a fairly decent severe weather day...lapse rates could be an issue but helicity is pretty high and good vertical shear

Southerly/southeasterly flow is not ideal, but we'll see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Southerly/southeasterly flow is not ideal, but we'll see what happens.

 

Southeasterly flow at the sfc is certainly great for increased helicity but yeah you need atmospheric conditions that would prevent from being marine contaminated.  One of these is to have an EML in place which we certainly won't.  Also, as long as the flow is relatively weak usually northern CT should be fine from the marine airmass.  THe threat would be from like the Hudson into western CT

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The new D2 puts us in a slight risk for tomorrow...

 

read the discussion and tell me what's wrong

 

..SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AS AN ANTICYCLONE
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD AND EVENTUALLY SEWD.
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC.
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM PARTS
OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST.

...MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...
A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS
EVIDENT...WITH CONCENTRATED REPORT SWATHS LIKELY MODULATED BY THE
IMPACT OF D1 CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT INFLUENCE OF REMNANT MCV/S ON
BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A VEERED LLJ RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS FROM THE SRN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED WITHIN A WAA REGIME. POCKETS OF STRONG
DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFYING WITH AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...YIELDING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

THE MOST VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
BE CENTERED FROM THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WITH A BELT OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /BECOMING NWLY/ AND SUSTENANCE OF THE
LLJ...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WARMING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...BUT VERY WARM/MOIST
MIXED-LAYER PARCELS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WINDS LARGELY SLACKENING WITH HEIGHT FROM
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS...SETUP SHOULD YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST E/SEWD TOWARDS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
AND TN VALLEY WITH DIMINISHING DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...