Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

not to be snarky.  I really am curious...

 

What does SPC issue MDs and eventually a watch for the the MA, when the majority of the severe warnings are up  here in NY/western NE ??  

 

There's a sea-b boundary N of CHes. Bay, and it's causing some training heavy showers, otherwise, not sure what their doing -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

good lord...what a humid stretch modeled on the euro. and over a half a foot of rain verbatim in parts of VT. huge area of >5" rains....with a tap to the tropics...that would be woefully underdone in some spots too. 

 

Yeah, the GFS at 180 hours (posted this earlier) had the Bahama Blue pattern, with implied deep tropical fetch and [probably] training of heavy showers.  Less thunder even due to the tropical nature of the sounding. 

 

This trough doesn't appear to clear the area and hasn't across a few cycles now.  Front never goes E, and we seem to be losing the potential for lead side BD, too... Seems the models want to transition away from a heat wave into more a pattern more typical of August, where you get deep blue sky with tropical towers, dark bases, and training streamers of convection.   

 

Good thing there's no hurricane near the Bahamas!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

 

Man western ma and vt float away on the euro.

 

We're gonna have to watch that carefully...Euro ens have been hinting at this for days now. But a stalled deepish trough in the lakes region with higher heights stuck northeast of us is the type of pattern that sets off sirens left and right in Moosup, CT. Big heavy rain signal for New England.

Someone could get some pretty nasty flooding in this whole setup. Still too far out to really figure the vulnerable areas but a very crude look would seem to favor the CT Valley because we have prolonged S/SSE flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the GFS at 180 hours (posted this earlier) had the Bahama Blue pattern, with implied deep tropical fetch and [probably] training of heavy showers.  Less thunder even due to the tropical nature of the sounding. 

 

This trough doesn't appear to clear the area and hasn't across a few cycles now.  Front never goes E, and we seem to be losing the potential for lead side BD, too... Seems the models want to transition away from a heat wave into more a pattern more typical of August, where you get deep blue sky with tropical towers, dark bases, and training streamers of convection.   

 

Good thing there's no hurricane near the Bahamas!

yeah thought about that. lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

not to be snarky.  I really am curious...

 

What does SPC issue MDs and eventually a watch for the the MA, when the majority of the severe warnings are up  here in NY/western NE ??  

 

There's a sea-b boundary N of CHes. Bay, and it's causing some training heavy showers, otherwise, not sure what their doing -

Maybe they're weighting the forecast based off of the axis of highest wind shear:

eshr.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Any cool dew days thru day 10 or just days and days of dews?

i didn't look at surface temps but would think it would be highly variable based on when/where the axis of moisture is. that, to me, looks like one of those deals where some places are stuck at like 74/70 with torrential rains and clouds...but maybe just a few towns over its like 84/70F with the sky that tippy is talking about. 

 

won't know for a while yet. there's also a brief intrusion of maritime air late week so that'll need to be watched. 

 

overall though...theme is definitely Wx Hype approved. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Just talking to folks and reading various online social media..people are very very excited and amped up for the coming hot pattern overall the next 30 days.Let's just get thru these next 2 days and we can celebrate summer the way it should be

I see two very distinct camps. I feel like there are more "heat complainers" this time around, but maybe that's about perception. We haven't had a whole lot of big heat/humidity yet this year and now that it's in the upper 80's/lower 90's, some are freaking out. Just wait until we get a few upper 90 days with dews 70+...

 

Yes, there is that other camp like us that loves us some HHH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

i didn't look at surface temps but would think it would be highly variable based on when/where the axis of moisture is. that, to me, looks like one of those deals where some places are stuck at like 74/70 with torrential rains and clouds...but maybe just a few towns over its like 84/70F with the sky that tippy is talking about.

won't know for a while yet. there's also a brief intrusion of maritime air late week so that'll need to be watched.

overall though...theme is definitely Wx Hype approved.

Lol nice. The kind of summer we've been waiting yrs for. The kind where you need to keep 12-18 rolls in the house at all times. Where each family member goes thru 2-4 per day
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

other thing to watch going forward will be just what form the rains take, and thus, what kind of cloud shield we're dealing with along the eastern seaboard. someone could have an awfully crappy stretch of weather - it doesn't look like it's just constant afternoon storms. they'd probably be convectively driven at times, but some clunkers in there? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Possible, but ... the impetus being, we have warned cells numerous up this way and we can't even get a MD on it ?

I agree. I questioned why they didn't issue an MD last week when we had that potent line of severe-warned storms that rolled through Connecticut.

 

I've learned to question less how they handle things up in the Northeast, because it seems to be somewhat inconsistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I agree. I questioned why they didn't issue an MD last week when we had that potent line of severe-warned storms that rolled through Connecticut.

I've learned to question less how they handle things up in the Northeast, because it seems to be somewhat inconsistent.

Part of it is inconsistency but I also think we get a huge number of warnings for storms that are truly non-severe. A 45 mph gust can take down a tree limb or some weaker trees and that gets logged as a severe report.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

SPC is not impressed.
mcd1204.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE / SRN VT / SRN NH / WRN MA / NWRN CT / ERN NY
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
 
VALID 241925Z - 242030Z
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
 
SUMMARY...PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
DISCUSSION...SCTD PULSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION FROM CNTRL-SRN NY NWD INTO VT.  THIS LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM/COLD POCKET OVER NERN PA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  KENX VWP DATA SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH 9 KM /LESS THAN 20 KT/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DISORGANIZED PULSING TSTMS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD AT LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE IN POCKETS AS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.
 
..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Part of it is inconsistency but I also think we get a huge number of warnings for storms that are truly non-severe. A 45 mph gust can take down a tree limb or some weaker trees and that gets logged as a severe report.

That is a good point. The amount of warnings we get up here compared to actual definition verification (1" hail and/or 58+ MPH winds) is very disproportionate. There are many marginal storms that get warned.

 

In hindsight of last week's event, I could see why a Watch and/or MD was not warranted. There were only a few non-severe thunderstorm reports across the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

SPC is not impressed.

mcd1204.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE / SRN VT / SRN NH / WRN MA / NWRN CT / ERN NY
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
 
VALID 241925Z - 242030Z
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
 
SUMMARY...PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
DISCUSSION...SCTD PULSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION FROM CNTRL-SRN NY NWD INTO VT.  THIS LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM/COLD POCKET OVER NERN PA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  KENX VWP DATA SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH 9 KM /LESS THAN 20 KT/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DISORGANIZED PULSING TSTMS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD AT LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE IN POCKETS AS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.
 
..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

 

 

That's all I need ...or want, really.  It really is nearing the bubble of what is tolerable, hot-wise, up in this god-forsaken, bread-box of a home. It says 88F on my interior gauge.  I have a fan on high, directly on me, and I still have the occasional bead of sweat.  I just want a nice 30kt collapse to roll on through and lop the top 15 or so off the head of this heat to start cooling off this beyotch!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

SPC is not impressed.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0225 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE / SRN VT / SRN NH / WRN MA / NWRN CT / ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241925Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCTD PULSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION FROM CNTRL-SRN NY NWD INTO VT. THIS LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM/COLD POCKET OVER NERN PA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KENX VWP DATA SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH 9 KM /LESS THAN 20 KT/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DISORGANIZED PULSING TSTMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD AT LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE IN POCKETS AS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

That's all I need ...or want, really. It really is nearing the bubble of what is tolerable, hot-wise, up in this god-forsaken, bread-box of a home. It says 88F on my interior gauge. I have a fan on high, directly on me, and I still have the occasional bead of sweat. I just want a nice 30kt collapse to roll on through and lop the top 15 or so off the head of this heat to start cooling off this beyotch!

Lets all chip in for an ac for you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

 

SPC is not impressed.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE / SRN VT / SRN NH / WRN MA / NWRN CT / ERN NY
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
 
VALID 241925Z - 242030Z
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
 
SUMMARY...PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
DISCUSSION...SCTD PULSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION FROM CNTRL-SRN NY NWD INTO VT.  THIS LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM/COLD POCKET OVER NERN PA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  KENX VWP DATA SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH 9 KM /LESS THAN 20 KT/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DISORGANIZED PULSING TSTMS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD AT LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE IN POCKETS AS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.
 
..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

 

"Marginal wind damage" from those 15 knot winds we'll mix down from H7 :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...