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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Methinks you're going down on this one.

i'll give it a few days yet. hardly takes anything to drop a boundary SW through / into SNE. and as long as guidance has 1) HP to our E or NE and 2) a disturbance running through the area...i'd wager cooler/dense air wins out at some point. we'll see.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

:axe:

 

IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 1C AND
THERE IS LESS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH MORE OF A WEST
WIND. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING 90-95 DEGREES IN THE CT/MERRIMACK
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR E MA/RI WITH 80S ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE S
COAST. COOLEST TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL BE FOUND AT THE ISLANDS.
HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S IN THE WARMEST
SPOTS.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's kind of an "inactive" trough -- more like a negative counter-balancing mass field between the Bermuda ridge and the one formulating over the 4 Corners region over the next several days.  There doesn't really appear to be much in the way of baroclinic processes taking place.   The winds blowing around the curvilinear heights of the trough are not really transporting delta thickness'

 

A professor at college once referred to these sort of scenarios as "background numerical instability" -- code for having a set that looks unstable, and is on a fundamental level, but out in time there is invariably going to be fictitious vort maxima in the flow ... perhaps convectively generated, or whatever, then the models uses them to engineer events.  

 

In the wintertime, a typical example of this is when you have a big polar high N of Maine and E component coming into the MA.   If you stick that on a D10, all the models will generate a nor'easter out of that, but ... sometimes highs pass by to the N without there being a nor'easter, too.  

 

But, at 96 hours, the operational Euro did have a subtle +PP over the GOM.   This would likely provide for a push back into NE/E zones, but you are right in that it is a weaker appeal, and not last more than 12 hours.  

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Still looks like some onshore flow an wet on the ensembles. Whoopee. Certainly not summery like today.

And just like those people who slapped weenies together when models backed off on Memorial day weekend......we know what happened.

70s and showery is summery.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's kind of an "inactive" trough -- more like a negative counter-balancing mass field between the Bermuda ridge and the one formulating over the 4 Corners region over the next several days.  There doesn't really appear to be much in the way of baroclinic processes taking place.   The winds blowing around the curvilinear heights of the trough are not really transporting delta thickness'

 

A professor at college once referred to these sort of scenarios as "background numerical instability" -- code for having a set that looks unstable, and is on a fundamental level, but out in time there is invariably going to be fictitious vort maxima in the flow ... perhaps convectively generated, or whatever, then the models uses them to engineer events.  

 

In the wintertime, a typical example of this is when you have a big polar high N of Maine and E component coming into the MA.   If you stick that on a D10, all the models will generate a nor'easter out of that, but ... sometimes highs pass by to the N without there being a nor'easter, too.  

 

That makes a lot of sense... good post, Tip. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I'll wager a dinner with you that our max is aoa 70 Thursday thru Saturday.

 

 

Make it 75 and I'll take the bet. I could see like a 71 or something if we get any type of sunshine. Climo is 80 for BOS by then so 70 is still a -10.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Make it 75 and I'll take the bet. I could see like a 71 or something if we get any type of sunshine. Climo is 80 for BOS by then so 70 is still a -10.

Nah 75 is too risky to me...lol. My point is AOA 70 with dews 65 feels summery enough. The old euro idea of struggling to low 60s would be highly anomalous.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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78.7 /70 currently off a high dew of 73. 2 rolls per family member today FTW

 

It was muggy today--the afternoon breeze made it really comforatable on the deck.  Actually, having split a cord of wood, ANYTHING other than lifting more logs would be relatively comfortable.

 

Hot day--got up to 86.7 at 12:45.  Now,  78.7/65.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

How is 75-80 with High dews not summery? Lol 2 days ago folks were saying models had 50's and rain lol. No one ever said 90 for the next 30 days. Just deep summer feels

 

Because they did, if you happened to take a look.

 

Average highs in the 80-83F range this time of year, so we'll take 70s all summer long.  To me that's more of a "summer" feel as opposed to a "deep summer" feel ;)

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